879
FXUS63 KILX 230101
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
801 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 15-20% chance for visibilities less than 1 mile in
  patchy fog tomorrow morning near and south of I-70.

- After isolated showers and storms on Saturday (~20% chance),
  conditions will turn dry and seasonably cool with overnight
  lows dipping into the upper 40s to low 50s by next work week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 801 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Added patchy fog to the forecast for late tonight from I-70
southward given a nearly unanimous signal from statistical
guidance products for around 1 to 3 mile visibility. There will
likely be some patchy lower visibilities as well, however physical
models generally disagree with producing any lowered visibility in
the same area. With high pressure parked over the area, clearing
skies, and afternoon dewpoints in the lower to mid 60s, above the
forecast lows in the lower 60s, patchy fog appears more likely.
North of I-70, high clouds moving in ahead of the approaching cold
front looks likely to prevent fog from forming.

37

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 138 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

A beautiful late August day has been what we have seen today. That
will last for what looks like a whole week. The forecast is dry,
cooler weather for the next week. The GFS LAMP is showing some
reduced visibilities in the morning for areas near and south of I-70
from some fog development. HREF is suggesting some lower stratus
(~3k ft) for eastern IL north of I-70. Otherwise, tomorrow morning
will be a lovely morning with temperatures around 60-65 degrees.

A cold front will pass through central and southeastern IL on
Saturday, bringing a slight chance (~20%) for showers along the
boundary. This front will usher in cooler and drier air. Behind the
front, a high pressure will set up over the mid-to-eastern CONUS,
which will rule the weather pattern for a week. The highs from
Sunday to Thursday will range in the 70s and lows in the 50s, maybe
even 40s for some localized areas.

The next potential chance for rain after Saturday couple possibly
be on Friday next week, but only has a 10-20% chance of any
precipitation.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Saturday Evening)
Issued at 628 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

Isolated showers and potentially a few thunderstorms will be the
main weather feature of note crossing the central IL terminals from
around 13Z-21Z Saturday. At this time, probabilities for thunder
are too low for mention in TAFs, but have included VCSH for
expected timing of showers. Cigs look to be near MVFR thresholds,
but have opted for VFR north of KDEC-KCMI where guidance leans
toward slightly higher cigs. Until then, VFR conditions are
expected. Winds light at variable, becoming W-NW 6-10 kts after
14Z-17Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$