344
FXUS63 KILX 171101
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
601 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Daily storm chances remain into the extended. The next best
  chance for severe weather comes Saturday.

- Heat and humidity will build next week...with early projections
  suggesting heat index values climbing well above 100 degrees by
  next Tuesday through much of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 241 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

The best chance for showers and/or thunderstorms today is south of
the I-72 corridor. The front will be draped over southeastern IL
today. There is a marginal risk for damaging winds in the area of
the front, but overall the storms should remain sub severe today.

With the front stalling out over southeastern IL, daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms exist into the weekend. Saturday the front
will shift northward and a couple shortwave pulses are expected
to move over the forecast area, which will bring the next best
chance for wider coverage of convection and potentially severe
weather. The NAMNest and FV3 models are showing a bowing complex
moving into the area by the end of their runs from Iowa, so we
will be monitoring the development and trends of that complex as
we move forward. SPC has introduced a marginal risk for severe
weather for Saturday (day 3). Timing of these waves is uncertain.
Precipitation amounts over the weekend look to be in the 1-2 inch
range.

Today will be a good break from the muggy, warmth of the summer, but
it won`t last long. Temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to low
90s by the weekend and they will continue to rise into the new week.
Productive southerly flow will increase the WAA and moisture
transport will usher in oppressive and sweltering temperatures. By
Tuesday, daytime highs will get into the mid 90s with heat indices
around 105-115 degrees. That looks to last most of the week. A heat
advisory, maybe even an extreme heat headline, may be needed next
week for the oppressive heat.


Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Friday Morning)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Thu Jul 17 2025

CMI could see some showers this morning through 13z, with the
chance for some thunder, so threw in a TEMPO. BMI will have some
thunder around the area, but unsure if it will be directly
impacted, hence the VCTS and no prevailing. MVFR ceilings are
spreading across central IL this morning. BMI/PIA will be late
bloomers, not getting the MVFR ceilings slightly later than the
others. Ceilings will lift/scatter to VFR this afternoon, but will
drop back down to MVFR around midnight. There is hope for
improvement back to VFR by the end of the 12z period. The rain
today should stay south of I-72.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$