448
FXUS63 KILX 301647
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1147 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- This holiday weekend will be lovely, albeit cooler than normal,
  for one last gasp at summertime adventures. Highs in the upper
  70s to mid 80s this afternoon and overnight temperatures in the
  mid 50s to near 60 tonight.

- A cold front next week could usher in cooler temperatures
  briefly. There is only a 15-30% chance that highs get above 70
  degrees Thursday and ~30% chance that lows will be below 45
  degrees Friday morning.

- There is an ~30% chance of showers Wednesday into Thursday next
  week associated with the cold frontal passage. Severe weather is
  not expected at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 155 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Surface high pressure continues to hang over the region until a cold
front is expected to push through Wednesday, which will break this
pattern of quiet, dry weather, but will potentially usher in even
cooler air briefly. Most areas will be dry through the weekend, but
there is a low chance in west central IL this afternoon for a stray
shower or two as a front lingers in the vicinity, increasing surface
convergence.

Highs in the upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the mid to upper 50s
are expected to continue through Wednesday. Behind the cold front on
Wednesday, there is a signal for highs to only get up into the upper
60s and lows in the 40s, starting Wednesday night. The GFS and Euro
show the 540 thickness line dropping into northern IL currently. The
NBM is showing 15-30% chance that highs get above 70 degrees
Thursday. The LREF is thinking the same with a ~15% chance of highs
getting above 70 degrees. Friday morning will be quite chilly, with
lows forecast to be in the mid 40s. There is a ~30% chance that lows
will be below 45 degrees Friday morning. Temperatures appear to
rebound by the following weekend to the 70s during the day and 50s
at night.

This cold front next week also has a chance for showers and
thunderstorms. It is still too far out to say for certain where they
will develop. Same as yesterday, none of the machine learning models
are showing ANY hint that there will be severe weather with the cold
frontal passage Wednesday. The Euro and GFS show showers across the
CWA Wednesday. The current forecast shows a 30-40% chance of showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday into Thursday.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Sunday Afternoon)
Issued at 1147 AM CDT Sat Aug 30 2025

VFR this forecast cycle with scattered mid to high clouds and
light east winds. An isolated light shower can`t be ruled out this
afternoon, but odds of a terminal being impacted are less than
10%.

25

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$