074
FXUS63 KILX 051946
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
246 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An Elevated Fire Risk is in place along and north of a
  Jacksonville to Danville line today. Burning is highly
  discouraged due to dry fuels, low humidity, and southerly winds
  gusting 20 to 30 mph.

- A cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms to
  central Illinois Monday into Tuesday night. Significant drought
  improvement is not expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

Pressure gradients between high pressure over the SE U.S. and low
pressure ejecting from the northern Plains to Southern Canada look
to maximize late this afternoon or evening, promoting southerly flow
and breezy conditions at the surface. Winds of 15-20 mph and a few
gusts of over 30 mph have been noted this afternoon, but should
gradually diminish overnight as the pressure gradient relaxes and
nocturnal stabilization reduces gustiness. A col pressure pattern
between highs over the central Plains and off the mid-Atlantic coast
and low pressure in SE Canada and northern Mexico into TX will
develop for Monday, promoting much lighter winds for the most part
as a cold front presses gradually southeastward into central IL.
This front and a weak disturbance ejecting out of the deep south
into southern IL with increased moisture and warm advection will
promote chances for showers and thunderstorms developing Monday
afternoon and continuing until after the front presses out of the
area Tuesday night. Severe weather doesn`t appear likely as weak
shear generally precedes the front and instability drops off behind
the front.

Any additional precipitation chances look slim after Tuesday as a
broad high pressure rebuilds across the middle of the country. A
few models are holding onto a dampening shortwave riding over the
ridge with associated precipitation taking place, but this feature
looks to dissipate as it moves into central IL. Have kept under 20
percent chance for precipitation Thursday night west of I-55 for
now.

Temperatures will cool off considerably behind the front,
bringing highs from another very warm and slightly humid day
Monday with highs in the mid 80s, down to lower to mid 70s
Wednesday through Friday. Tuesday should see a large range from
under 70 in Galesburg to nearly 80 in Lawrenceville as the
aforementioned front takes until afternoon to reach Lawrenceville.
A warming trend will resume next weekend, likely bringing highs
back to around 80 by Sunday.

37

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Monday Afternoon)
Issued at 1221 PM CDT Sun Oct 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected through the upcoming 24 hours as
breezy southerly winds are driven by gradients between high
pressure to the southeast and a low pressure center passing by
well to the north. The southerly flow will increase moisture,
resulting in mid level cloud increases toward the end of the
period, and slight chances for light showers, but probabilities
for rain are too low for mention in 18Z TAFs. Winds S-SSW 15-18
kts with gusts around 25 kts until 00Z, decreasing to around 10
kts.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$