036
FXUS63 KILX 231124
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
524 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a greater than 90% chance for rain Monday evening and
  overnight. There is a 40-60% chance of 1/4 inch of rainfall
  from Monday 18z to Tuesday 18z.

- Above normal temperatures through Tuesday will turn sharply
  colder midweek with widespread low to mid 20s in the forecast
  Thursday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 202 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Dry weather continues as high pressure reigns over the region again
today. Highs today will be in the mid 50s, with lows ranging in the
30s.

The next chance for rain looks to be tomorrow as a frontal system
starts to push through Illinois. Forecast soundings have little to
no CAPE of any sort for the Monday to Tuesday timeframe, leaving
thunder out of the forecast. The LREF is showing a 40-60% chance of
1/4 inch of rainfall from Monday 18z to Tuesday 18z. The NBM is
showing a 50-70% chance for the same amount over the same time
period.

After Tuesday afternoon, drier weather sets up through Friday.
However, the cold front associated with the low bringing
precipitation to central IL Monday-Tuesday is expected to move
through Tuesday night, which will bring in a burst of winter-like
temperatures just in time for the holiday weekend. Highs on Tuesday
warm to upper 50s to mid 60s. Behind the front, highs for the rest
of the week only reach the upper 30s to mid 40s. There is a sign
that temperatures will warm back into the 50s by Sunday. The biggest
drama maker with this forecast run is the bitterly cold lows
beginning Thursday morning.

Lows for Thursday morning through Saturday morning are in the low to
mid 20s. Potentially, Thursday morning (Thanksgiving) and Friday
morning will be the most frigid -- with a 60-80% chance of apparent
temperatures being below 20 degrees north of a Havana to Paris line,
according to the LREF.

We are monitoring trends in the models for the next weekend. There
appears to be a low system that could bring more rain and snow to
central Illinois Saturday-Sunday. Based off a week out, the system
will start as snow and transition to rain. The LREF is showing a 30-
50% chance of 0.1 inches of snowfall from Sat 06z to Sun 06z north
of I-70. This system is 6-7 days out, so things are expected to
change, but it is something to look at for the forecast this week.
Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 12z TAFs through 12z Monday Morning)
Issued at 524 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Patchy dense fog and low stratus is affecting the sites this
morning. IFR/LIFR visibilities are seen across central IL. They
should improve as the sun comes up, with dissipation by 15z. After
15z, winds become variable with VFR ceilings/visibilities for the
remainder of the 12z period.

Copple

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$