430
FXUS63 KILX 032348
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
548 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated severe thunderstorms may develop through this early
  this evening, mainly in west-central parts of the state.

- Rain totals tonight should be around 0.50 inch or less. There
  is only a low chance (20% to 40%) for rainfall to exceed 1
  inch.

- Breezy and cooler conditions will follow Wednesday and
  Thursday with periodic light rain showers, followed by drier
  weather this weekend into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 158 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

Upper air analysis early this afternoon shows two separate
troughs that have phased into one over the central Plains
states. At the surface, a 1002 mb low is located over northwest
Missouri with a cold front stretched from north-central Missouri
into the southern Plains states. Out ahead of the front, strong
southerly winds are in place with peak gusts generally ranging
from 30 to 40 mph. Winds are expected to ease some through this
evening as the surface low approaches, but will remain elevated
through Wednesday.

Scattered showers are ongoing over west-central Illinois and are
forecast to overspread the remainder of the area through this
evening. In addition, there is a low chance for a few isolated
thunderstorms with the focus being confined to areas west of a
Bloomington to Effingham line. Although instability is forecast to
be weak (MLCAPE <300 J/kg), strong wind shear will be in place with
0-1 km SRH approaching 250-300 m2/s2. This paired with strong
convergence along the approaching cold front and large-scale ascent
from the upper wave may support a few clusters of marginally severe
convection through this evening. Primary threats with any stronger
storms will be damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple tornadoes.
Despite climatologically high PWATs (1.50"+), rain amounts look
largely be around 0.50" or less. The latest suite of 12Z
guidance shows a few heavier swaths of close to 1 inch falling
over central parts of the state, likely tied to any areas of
heavier showers or convection.

Cooler and breezy conditions filter in behind the cold front for
Wednesday and Thursday. Some wrap around precipitation on the
backside of the departing low may promote isolated to scattered
light showers later Thursday into Friday. Surface high pressure
settles into the area by the weekend, turning things mostly dry and
seasonal through early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 548 PM CST Tue Nov 3 2026

2330z/530pm radar imagery shows a band of light to moderate
showers streaming northward into central Illinois. Ceilings are
currently VFR at the terminals: however, model guidance and
upstream obs indicate a lowering to MVFR over the next few
hours. Based on the latest trends, have introduced MVFR
conditions at KPIA by 02z...then further east to KCMI by 05z.
The band of showers will gradually shift eastward overnight:
however, despite the end of the rainfall...MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist through the remainder of the 00z TAF period.
Winds will initially be SE with gusts of 20-25kt this evening,
then will become S/SW overnight. Once an approaching cold front
passes, winds will further veer to W/SW after the 13z-15z time
frame.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...NMA
DISCUSSION...NMA
AVIATION...Barnes