344
FXUS63 KILX 142001
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
201 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near record warm temperatures are forecast again tomorrow for
  much of central and southeast Illinois, with highs in the mid
  70s.

- The next opportunity (60-75% chance) for precipitation arrives
  Monday afternoon into Tuesday morning. There is a 40-60% chance
  of 0.25 inches of rain south of I-70 During this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 201 PM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A warm front is passing through right now which will allow today and
tomorrow to have near record warmth with highs in the low to mid
70s. This doesn`t last long as a cold front is expected to move
through central Il tomorrow afternoon and evening. This front will
usher in more normal temperatures for the new week. Ahead of the
cold front passage, the pressure gradient will tighten. This will
increase the wind speed overnight, lasting into the late afternoon.
The HREF 14.12z run is showing 60-80% chance of wind gusts greater
than 30 mph starting around 05z (11pm) tonight. That probability
seems high, especially with HREF having a tendency to overestimate
wind gusts, but wouldn`t completely disregard the chance of wind
gusts that high. Saying that, not everyone will see the strongest
(30+ mph) wind gusts, they would be more scattered in nature. In
general though, the strongest gusts will be east of the I-55
corridor but some pockets west of there is still possible at times.
These winds look to begin to relax by 18z (noon) Saturday. This cold
front, however, should pass without any precipitation.

Sunday, a high pressure center passes over. Light winds, dry
weather, and cool temperatures are to be expected. A low pressure
system will begin to develop in the lee of the Rockies Sunday. This
low pressure will travel eastward, delivering the next chance of
precipitation to the forecast area Monday. Precipitation type is
looking like rain now. There remains a small chance of snow flurries
with the low passage north of I-74, but has been left out of the
forecast for now due to the high uncertainty. The GFS is much drier
than the Euro with this system. The GFS shows many locations seeing
potentially nothing. The NBM shows a 40-60% chance of 0.25 inches
of rain south of I-70 from this system. Timing looks like Monday
afternoon into Tuesday morning.

The more intriguing portion of this forecast comes late next week.
There looks to be another low pressure system that could move
through the Midwest. At this time, it looks like it could pack more
of a punch with the precipitation and maybe even some thunderstorms.
It is a week out, so we will keep an eye on it for now as we make
our way through the weekend.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Saturday Afternoon)
Issued at 1056 AM CST Fri Nov 14 2025

A cold front will approach the regional terminals from the north
late tonight into Saturday. Winds will become breezy overnight.
Despite a stout low-level jet veering in across the region, a
stable near-surface environment should preclude gusts exceeding 25
kts through the overnight period.

Clouds will lower ahead of the impending cold front. We anticipate
VFR ceilings persisting through this TAF cycle, though some
lowering near MVFR is a possibility beyond 09z. There is currently
a 50% chance of ceilings falling into the MVFR category by then.
One notable exception is at KCMI, where there is a 50% chance of
ceilings falling into the IFR range just after 12z.

MJA

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$