764
FXUS63 KILX 082301
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion...Updated Aviation
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
501 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures, with highs generally in the upper 40s
  to low 50s Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will trend closer to
  normal, but still above normal, Wednesday through Saturday.

- Higher (40-50%) precipitation chances will exist late Thursday
  and again on Saturday (30-50% chance). With diurnal temperature
  swings crossing the freezing mark each day, some of this may
  fall as a wintry mix.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 134 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

High pressure has shifted east today. Highs today in the mid 30s to
low 40s. This warm up will continue into tomorrow as we get another
good push of warm air into the region. There is some uncertainty in
just how warm we will get over the next two days. Monday, the HREF
shows a 40-60% chance of highs above 45 degrees southwest of a
Havana to Olney line, with the NBM having slightly higher
probabilities. Tuesday, the amount of cloud cover and the state of
the decaying cold frontal passage will be the deciding factor in how
warm we get. The LREF shows a 40-60% chance of greater than 50
degrees south of a Litchfield to Robinson line. However, the NBM
shows a 50-80% chance southwest of a Macomb to Terre Haute line for
Tuesday`s highs.

Recent runs of the GFS and Euro are depicting the precipitation
Tuesday night remaining well to the south of the forecast area. So
the next best chance for any precip comes Thursday night (40-50%
chance) and again Saturday (30-50% chance). With the shortwave
Thursday night, precipitation amounts will be pretty minimal with
only a 10-20% chance (NBM/LREF) of 0.5 inch of QPF. The bigger push
of precipitation will come Saturday into Sunday morning. There is a
20-30% chance of more than an inch of QPF south of I-70. For both
rounds, rain, snow, and (potentially) a wintry mix are possible.
Especially as the temperatures get near or below freezing in the
overnight hours. Thursday, there is a 20-30% chance of exceeding an
inch of snow north of I-70.

After Tuesday, temperatures remain above normal by a few degrees
during the day with well above normal lows overnight. Highs will
remain in the upper 30s to mid 40s through the remainder of the
week. Lows in the upper 20s to low 30s.

Copple

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Monday Evening)
Issued at 501 PM CST Sun Feb 8 2026

High pressure departing the area will continue to bring mostly
clear skies overnight, then increasing high clouds will arrive
Monday as a frontal system approaches the area. Winds SE 8-12 kts
this evening, decreasing overnight, then shifting to S 5-10 kts by
18Z.

37

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$