232
FXUS63 KILX 061052
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
552 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Several shower and storm chances exist through the next 7
  days. Saturday having the best potential for widespread dry
  conditions. Severe weather and flash flooding are not expected
  at this time over the next few days.

- Favorable pattern for increased heat/humidity (heat indices
  nearing 100F) and thunderstorm complexes Sunday into Tuesday.
  There is a 50-80% chance of heat indices being greater than
  95 degrees on Monday afternoon, south of I-74/Danville.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 223 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

The surface front has stalled out over northern IL at this point.
That and some upper level (500mb) vort maxes together will bring
several more rounds of showers and potentially thunderstorms across
the state into the weekend.

Today the rain is primarily near and south of the I-72 corridor. It
is uncertain just how far much further north the rain will extend
but some scattered activity is not out of the question. There
already is some activity approaching the southwest CWA now (~07z)
from the convection in central/northern MO, which will continue to
spread east through the morning into the early afternoon. Severe
weather and flash flooding are not expected at this time over the
next few days. Some areas that see multiple heavy showers/storms
move through could see some ponding or full ditches though.

Seasonable temperatures are expected to last into Saturday. Then,
temperatures look to rise near or above 90 degrees for highs with
increasing humidity. The warmest days of the forecast being Sunday
into Tuesday (Monday being the hottest day). The LREF shows a 50-80%
chance of apparent temperatures being greater than 95 degrees on
Monday afternoon, south of I-74/Danville. However, Sunday through
Tuesday, multiple convective areas will move across northern and
central IL. The heat indices and actual temperatures may not be able
to achieve 90 degrees because of the additional rain/cloud cover.
Wednesday and Thursday next week looks to cool back off with highs
in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 552 AM CDT Thu Aug 6 2026

A convective complex is travelling east from the STL area. SPI,
DEC, and CMI will be impacted by the rain. PIA and BMI may be
impacted closer to 16z, if they see any showers. The rain will
clear out by 18z. Beyond that into tomorrow morning, the
forecast should be dry, but there will be some isolated showers
and storms that may develop after 18z into the overnight hours.
Location of where they may develop is uncertain, so opted to
leave out of 12z TAFs.

Ceilings will mainly be VFR, with the exception of within a
thunderstorm. However, SPI will be MVFR to start. SCT008 added
to SPI but ceilings may become IFR or LIFR with the rain moving
in. Confidence is low in how it will evolve at each site.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

KEY MESSAGES...Copple
DISCUSSION...Copple
AVIATION...Copple