127
FXUS63 KILX 032036
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
236 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered light snow and patchy freezing drizzle will remain
  possible late this afternoon into this evening. Only limited
  travel impacts are anticipated, but there could be a few slick
  spots wherever wintry precip becomes focused. Drive with
  caution, especially during the late afternoon and evening
  commute.

- The coldest air of the season so far will arrive tonight and
  last through Friday morning. Take immediate steps to protect
  people, pets, and pipes from the cold.

&&

.SHORT TERM... (Through Late Thursday Night)
Issued at 235 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

A cold front will move through the CWA late this afternoon through
tonight. Models remain consistent that a wintery mix of
precipitation is possible along and just behind the front through
tonight. Predominate p-type will be light snow or flurries, but
forecast soundings show the lose of cloud ice just behind the
front and possibly just prior to precip onset. This indicates the
p-type could also be freezing drizzle at times, during onset and
also after the front goes through. This threat will continue
overnight in the southeast portions of the CWA. Strongest forcing
with this front looks to be in the southeast near/along I-70. This
is where the highest accumulations of snow is possible, but
amounts will still be less than 1/2". Any ice accumulation from
the freezing drizzle will also be very minor, if at all. However,
untreated surfaces, bridges, and overpasses could have some slick
spots this evening into the overnight hours.

Coldest air of the season will arrive tonight behind this arctic
front, which will last through Friday morning. This arctic high
pressure will drop into the plains tonight with northerly winds
over the CWA. The combination of the decreasing winds, clearing
skies, and a large snow cover, very cold temperatures are expected
with overnight lows dropping into the single digits over most of
the area, especially north of I-70. South of I-70, temps will drop
into the teens. Winds chills are also expected to be well below
zero and values of -10 to -15 are expected in the northern parts
of the CWA. After a dry and cold day on Thursday, Thursday night
temps will drop again as well. However, the coldest air will be
around midnight as the high pressure ridge pushes to the east.
This will bring warmer air back into the area after midnight. So,
below zero temps and -10 wind chills will occur around midnight
with temps slowly rising during the overnight hours tomorrow
night.

Auten

.LONG TERM... (Friday through Next Wednesday)
Issued at 235 PM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

Dry weather is expected to continue Friday through Saturday,
followed by a clipper system Sat night into Sun. Temps will be
cold enough with this system that p-type will be all snow. After
another dry period Sun night into Mon, two more clipper systems
will drop across northern and northeast IL Mon night through Wed.
P-type for the first of these two should be all rain. However,
warmer air will advect northward into the area ahead of the second
one, making the p-type forecast for this one tricky. This one will
need to be monitored as it gets closer.

Temps will remain below normal most of the extended period, but a
warming trend is favored toward the middle of next week.

Auten

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 18z TAFs through 18z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 1152 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025

IFR cigs are already ongoing at DEC, BMI, and CMI, but as the
front moves into the area from the northwest, IFR cigs are
expected SPI and PIA. All sites will see IFR cigs/conditions as
the front moves through the area with -sn. Forecast soundings from
various models indicate that some -FZDZ is possible as well, so
this is included in the PROB30 groups at all sites late this
afternoon into this evening. MVFR clouds will return after the
precip and front moves through. Then question is will VFR
conditions return overnight. Thinking lower clouds will dissipate
around midnight at PIA and then move to the southeast through the
overnight hours. Winds will be southwest ahead of the front and
then become northwest as the front moves through. North-northwest
winds are expected this evening into overnight and tomorrow. Wind
speeds will be breezy with gusts over 20kts ahead of the front and
then become lighter as the front moves through, then breezy again
during the evening hours, then become lighter again overnight.

Auten

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$