222
FXUS63 KILX 130711
AFDILX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
211 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

 - Little to no rain is expected through Friday, resulting in
   continued drought conditions.

- Better chances for beneficial rain (40-60%) return by the
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 211 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Surface analysis early this morning shows an expansive area of
ridging stretched from southeast Canada southwestward through the
Great Lakes States. Further west, a weak cold front attached to a
low in south-central Manitoba stretches from the Upper Mississippi
Valley into central Kansas. Moisture transport near and ahead of the
front has resulted in scattered showers, with light radar echoes
noted west of the IL River as of 2 am. However, much drier air in
place over a good portion of central Illinois has prevented a lot of
this from reaching the ground with just a few ASOS/AWOS sites
reporting rain occasionally. The latest suite of CAMS suggest most
of this activity will dry  up as it approaches I-55 by mid morning.

Aside from the low chances (<20%) for rain in west-central IL this
morning, surface ridging will keep us mostly dry through the
remainder of the week. The cold front will slowly drop south of the
area by Wednesday. Despite this, daily highs will continue to run on
the warm side peaking in the middle 70s to low 80s each day this
week. This is about 10-15 degrees warmer than normal.

A pattern change arrives by the weekend, bringing better chances for
beneficial rainfall. Water vapor imagery shows an deep trough
spinning over the Pacific Northwest coast. This system will dive
into the southwest US then deepen as it ejects northward into the
Northern Plains states later this week. Surface ridging will get
pushed east of here, with a cold front approaching from the west
by Saturday/Sunday. Somewhat better Gulf moisture will advect
northward ahead of the front on Saturday, which should ultimately
bring more meaningful rainfall and perhaps some thunderstorms to
the area. The latest NBM probabilities highlight a 40-60% chance
for 0.5" or more of rain with about a 30-40% chance for 1" or more
in southeast parts of the state.

Temperatures return to seasonal normals behind the weekend system
with high temperatures on Sunday looking to peak in the middle to
upper 60s. In fact, the ensemble mean from the ECMWF AIFS suggests
cooler temperatures are favored through at least the first half of
next week. A brief glance at deterministic and ensemble guidance
shows a more progressive pattern to close out the month, potentially
bringing additional chances for rain.

NMA

&&

.AVIATION...  (For the 06z TAFs through 06z Monday Night)
Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon Oct 13 2025

Surface high pressure will shift east, causing winds to veer to
a more southerly direction mid to late morning. However, the
gradient will weaken across the region by early to mid afternoon,
causing winds to go light and fickle. Tonight, a weak front
dropping south will result in a yet another wind shift, with winds
blowing gently from the northeast behind the front. A weak upper
level disturbance rippling along that front will bring prolific
cloud cover to the region, but guidance suggests a high likelihood
(80% chance) that will be in the VFR category with model
forecasts averaging ceiling heights around 4500-6000 ft.

Bumgardner

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$