Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Central Illinois

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FXUS63 KILX 290316

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
916 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

Issued at 228 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

This mornings weak upper level system that produced scattered
snow showers had moved into IN this afternoon. Skies are expected
to clear overnight, allowing temperatures to fall into the teens.
A warming trend will begin tomorrow, with highs Saturday into the
low to mid 40s and upper 50s on Sunday.

Periods of rain are expected the start of the week, with a chance
of rain Sunday night and continuing into midweek.


Issued at 916 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

Appears flurries have ended across the area and skies are now
quickly clearing with only a few clouds left across the southern
and southeastern parts of the CWA. Current forecast has a good
handle on this already, but will take a look and clean up the
cloud cover in the grids. Overnight lows are expected to drop into
the teens again and with northwest winds and dewpoints in the
teens to lower 20s, think this forecast is still a good one. Clear
skies will continue tomorrow with warmer temps. Update will be out


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

Satellite and radar indicated that the weak upper wave that
produced the scattered snow showers over the region this morning
had reached IN. With low level cold advection and clearing seen in
the satellite data, expect clouds to thin tonight and allow temps
to fall into the teens. Have lowered lows slightly.

Surface ridge axis will drift to the southeast and allow southwest
flow to begin by afternoon on Saturday. This will start the warming
trend that will continue into Sunday with dry conditions.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

The long range is the focus of today. Surface low tracks across
southern Canada through Sunday, dragging surface front into
western IL by Sunday evening. Winds ahead of the front will be
breezy on Sunday with the tightening gradient. This will push
ample moisture north into the state ahead of the front. Models
develop convection in warm sector ahead of the front late Sunday
and overnight, pushing the pcpn into central IL Sunday night.
Coordination with surrounding WFOs to adjust POPS down a bit on
the forward edge of the pcpn Sunday evening. Models also continue
trend of unstable air advecting north ahead of front, seen in
progged CAPE fields. Kept slight chance of T in forecast in the
southcentral and southeast sections Sunday night and through day

Once the first wave of pcpn comes through Sunday night, then next
wave Monday night. Frontal zone slides to extreme southern IL by
Monday night, and then continues southward.

Model trends continue to drift the overall focus of the pcpn a bit
southeastward. Additional upper waves move northeast from TX up
into the OH valley, causing more periods of rain through
Wednesday. Total QPF has dropped some as the focus has shifted to
the south with time,  into the OH and TN valley areas for the
heaviest rainfall.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 537 PM CST Fri Feb 28 2020

MVFR cigs from 2.5-3kft will cover all sites for 2-4 of hours
this evening and then scatter out...then clear out around
midnight. Then skies will remain clear rest of the night and
through tomorrow. Winds will be northwest this evening and then
become light during the overnight hours. By tomorrow, winds will
become southwest at just below 10kts.




SHORT TERM...Goetsch
LONG TERM...Goetsch
AVIATION...Auten is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.