507
FNUS73 KILX 170827
FWSILX

Spot Forecast for Ballards Nature Center RxFire...IDNR-INPC
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
227 AM CST Mon Nov 17 2025

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 CST on November 17.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Please contact our office at (217) 732-3089 if you have questions
or concerns with this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Southeast winds will develop by late this morning, backing to a
northeasterly direction by tomorrow afternoon as a low pressure
system drifts across southern/central IL. Along and ahead of a
warm front associated with that low, showers and perhaps a couple
thunderstorms will overspread the area tonight and linger into
tomorrow morning, with rainfall totals generally ranging from a
tenth to half inch area-wide. Widespread cloud cover will remain
across the area through tomorrow night and possibly even into
Wednesday, limiting mixing depth and resulting in poor
ventilation.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Chance of pcpn......10 percent.
Chance of thunder...0 percent.
Temperature.........48 at ignition...Max 56.
RH..................35 percent at ignition...Min 24 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast around 6 mph.
Mixing height.......1500 ft AGL at ignition...becoming 2300 ft
                    AGL this afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southeast 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /10300 knot-ft/ at ignition. Max...Poor
                    /20100 knot-ft/.

TIME (CST)      10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........22     34     35     39
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE   NONE   NONE   NONE
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).0      0      10     0
Chc of thdr (%).0      0      0      0
Temp............48     54     56     55
RH..............35     26     24     26
20 ft wind......SE 6   SE 7   SE 7   SE 7
20 ft wind gust.9      12     12     13
Mix hgt (ft)....1500   2200   2300   700
Transport wind..SE 8   SE 8   SE 8   SE 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10     15     16     6
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy (40-50 percent) then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (75-85 percent). Rain likely and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the late
                    evening, then rain and chance of thunderstorms
                    overnight.
Chance of pcpn......90 percent.
Chance of thunder...26 percent.
Temperature.........Min 44.
RH..................Max 89 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 5 to 7 mph. Gusty and erratic
                    winds expected near thunderstorms overnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southeast 12 to 17 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (4200 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........43     75     91     93     98     97
Weather cov.....       CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE DEFNTE DEFNTE
Weather type....NONE   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........              S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Chc of pcpn (%).10     30     60     80     90     80
Chc of thdr (%).10     10     20     30     30     20
Temp............50     46     47     46     46     46
RH..............36     45     49     63     71     79
20 ft wind......SE 7   SE 7   SE 7   SE 8   SE 8   SE 9
20 ft wind gust.14     14     14     15     15     16
Mix hgt (ft)....400    400    400    600    500    600
Transport wind..SE 12  SE 14  SE 16  SE 17  SE 17  SE 15
Vrate kt-ft/1K..4      5      6      8      8      7
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

.TUESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Chance of thunder...13 percent.
Temperature.........Max 63.
RH..................Min 70 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 6 to 7 mph shifting to the
                    northwest 5 to 6 mph late in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 16 mph shifting to the southwest
                    around 10 mph early in the afternoon, then
                    shifting to the north around 8 mph late in
                    the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (5700 knot-ft).

TIME (CST)      6 AM   8 AM   10 AM  NOON   2 PM   4 PM
Sky (%).........90     91     89     84     70     59
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN   RAIN
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).40     40     40     50     50     50
Chc of thdr (%).10     10     10     10     10     10
Temp............46     49     55     60     62     61
RH..............86     89     80     78     72     73
20 ft wind......SE 9   SE 9   S 8    SW 7   SW 7   NW 7
20 ft wind gust.15     15     14     13     13     12
Mix hgt (ft)....700    700    900    1200   1300   1100
Transport wind..SE 16  S 13   S 12   S 12   NW 10  N 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..10     8      9      12     11     8
Ventrate Cat....POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR   POOR

$$
Forecaster...Bumgardner
Requested by...Sami Childerson
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2526075.0/ILX
.DELDT 11/17/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL sami.childerson@illinois.gov