879
FXUS63 KIND 151431
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1031 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog and low stratus possible early this morning

- Showers and a few thunderstorms possible across the SE this
afternoon

- At times active weather pattern next week with daily rain/storm
chances through Thursday...severe weather possible Wed - Wed Night

- Generally humid this week...upper 80s/low 90s likely next weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1030 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Clouds are holding on across most of the area, with a few breaks
noted in the far north part of central Indiana. ACARS soundings
indicated the cloud layer is about 2000 ft thick so it will still
take several more hours to see an increase in breaks in the clouds
across the remainder of the forecast area. As a result the hourly
temperature trends has been adjusted lower for the remainder of the
morning hours into midday, but will quickly rise in the lower 80s by
mid afternoon as the low cloud layer diminishes quickly.

A residual boundary/inverted trough extending from a surface low
over eastern KY/OH back into southern Indiana will be the focus for
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the SE 1/2 of
the forecast area this afternoon with pops running from 20-50
percent, highest in the far SE. Observed 12Z sounding from ILX show
that the weak shortwave ridging influence /subsident layers aloft/
and lack of any appreciable low level convergence will keep the
chances of precipitation to near zero in the remainder of the
central Indiana.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

A very moist atmosphere remains over central Indiana in the wake
of the system that brought rain to the region the past few days.
Low stratus clouds and patchy fog is expected to persist through
around daybreak, and improve throughout the day.

An isolated shower here or there will continue to be possible
through the early morning hours. More scattered showers will have a
chance of occurring across the SE midday to the evening as daytime
heating and instability pick back up. A few thunderstorms could be
embedded as well. These late day showers are expected to stay south
of I-69 and then diminish and push off to the SE by tonight.

Warm, humid conditions will continue through the short term. Highs
today will be in the low 80s while lows tonight will again be in the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 319 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Typical early summer pattern to continue into the long term, albeit
including at times above normal humidity and potential for severe
storms around the Wednesday-Wednesday night timeframe.  The workweek
will start with low 80s again and late day showers/few non-severe
storms possibly scattered across southern counties.  Southwesterly
breezes Tuesday will boost afternoon temperatures above 85F for most
locations, although any diurnally driven showers/non-severe t-storms
may only display organized coverage southeast of I-69.

A stronger H500 short wave trough will track from the Upper Midwest
towards Indiana on Wednesday, likely setting off organized strong/
severe convection from the Quad Cities area into the western half of
the Midwest.  Less confidence for the local region on specific
timing and location of impactful storms...yet appears precipitable
water around 1.75+ inches will fuel impressive instability...which
may outrun better wind shear to our northwest.  Chances for severe
storms will be greater across northwestern portions of the area. The
overall slow advancement of the supporting wave may support more
than one round of stronger cells.

Confidence increasing slightly in a brief respite from the muggy air
as a surface humidity minimum following the mid-week system should
cross the CWA around the Thursday night timeframe...when dewpoints
near 60 degrees may cross northeastern zones.  More reasonable
humidity will perhaps last into the early Friday timeframe, albeit
coupled with a return to very warm conditions.

A mainly rain-free Saturday under ample sunshine will bring the
potential for Indianapolis` first 90F reading of the year.
Opportunities for additional 90F+ days will continue past the long
term period as a staunch subtropical ridge axis slowly crosses
Indiana.  The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term
period is 83/64.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 732 AM EDT Sun Jun 15 2025

Impacts:

- Mainly IFR/LIFR CIGs early this morning improving to MVFR by 15Z
- Reduced VIS in patchy fog possible through 14Z, at mainly KBMG/KHUF

Discussion:

KLAF will maintain at VFR conditions throughout the TAF period.
Elsewhere IFR/LIFR from mainly low stratus will linger through 13-
15Z this morning.  Stratus to lift to MVFR and/or scatter out by 18Z-
20Z. Any ceilings returning later in the period to be at VFR levels.

Winds to be steady out of the northeast, sustained around mainly 5-
8KT through 12Z Monday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...AGM