534
FXUS63 KIND 141648
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1148 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues with highs in the 60s to near 70 today and
widespread highs in the low 70s on Saturday

- Low rain chances late Saturday through early Sunday

- Slightly cooler, but seasonable temperatures early next week along
with better chances for rain late Monday into Tuesday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 927 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

The primary area of showers that impacted the region early this
morning has largely moved off to the east in tandem with an area of
more pronounced isentropic lift. A few light showers linger across
the southern half of the forecast area where slightly better
moisture resides. Mild start to the day with 14Z temperatures
in the upper 40s and lower 50s.

Holding on to a low chance for a few showers south of I-70 for a
couple more hours but once the last of the stronger isentropic lift
departs expect dry weather for the afternoon. Sunshine will increase
through the course of the day with mostly sunny skies expected for
most of the forecast area by early to mid afternoon. Low level
thermals support the warmest day in a week for the region as temps
soar into the 60s. A few spots in the lower Wabash Valley will make
a run at 70 later today as well.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

The short term will start off with ridging aloft with high pressure
at the surface leading to warm but relatively quiet weather through
tonight. CAMs have backed off on the chance for light rain this
morning but still a non-zero chance of precipitation within lower
clouds forming and pushing in from the west early this morning. This
lower deck of clouds will continue to push eastward through the
day, mainly across the southern half of the forecast area.

The surface high will also drift southeastward through the period
while the leading edge of a surface front will begin to push in from
the NE tonight. While precipitation chances from the front won`t
reach the area by daybreak tomorrow, increased cloud coverage ahead
of it will arrive tonight. Pressure gradients aloft will also
tighten some between these two systems so expect winds to pick up
some this afternoon and more so overnight when gusts of 20-25 mph
will be possible.

WAA and moisture advection from the SW flow in place will lead to
highs in the 60s to near 70 today while dew points gradually
increase over the next 24+ hours.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Saturday Through Monday.

Much warmer than normal conditions will continue into Saturday with
strong southwesterly surface flow helping to bring dew points into
the upper 50s. This seasonable humid airmass will interact with a
weak upper level trough moving southeast across the Great Lakes
region to bring isolated showers, mainly during the overnight hours
into Sunday. Confidence in these showers is highest across the
northeastern counties but at a minimum, mostly cloudy skies will
impact much if not all of central Indiana.

Cooler air is expected to move in beginning Sunday with the surface
flow becoming northwesterly. There is some model differences as to
how strong the exiting trough will be as it moves into the
Northeastern states which will impact the strength of the CAA and
resulting temperature drop. Generally models are honing in on the
stronger low solution which could bring northwesterly gusts up to 25
mph and temperatures in the low 50s along with dry conditions.

Tuesday Through Thursday.

Confidence in the forecast then begins to fall going into early next
week with a wide range in model solutions of a low pressure system
moving to the east into the Ohio Valley and how it may interact with
a surge of Gulf moisture. The Euro continues to be the most
consistent model among major global models with a closed low
transitioning into a broader trough with rain impacting central
Indiana late Monday night into Tuesday.

The latest GFS and Canadian runs are a bit more progressive with
rainfall as early as Monday evening, but feel these are overdoing
the forcing ahead of the low. There may be some lingering
drizzle/low clouds in the aftermath of the system, but otherwise
quiet and dry conditions should dominate the forecast through at
least late Wednesday with the next potential system moving in
towards the end of the work week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1148 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Impacts:

- Southwest wind gusts peaking at 25 to 30kts Saturday

Discussion:

Cloud cover has diminished as of late morning as deeper moisture and
isentropic lift moves away to the east. Cannot rule out a few
diurnal cu through the afternoon  Ridging aloft will expand into the
Ohio Valley through Saturday with skies clearing for tonight.
Southwest winds of 10 to 15kts will continue through sunset before
dropping back slightly overnight.

A cold front will approach from the northwest on Saturday...leading
to a tightening of the surface pressure gradient. Peak wind gusts
will increase to 25 to 30 kts along with an increase in mid and high
level clouds into the afternoon. The front will sweep across the
terminals during the second half of the afternoon with winds veering
to westerly and the potential for a few isolated showers.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Ryan