881
FXUS63 KIND 021942
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
242 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected for Tuesday with highs in the low
  70s

- Widespread rain arrives late Tuesday night and continues into
  Wednesday

-  A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late
  week through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 242 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Tonight.

The short term period will be characterized by anomalous warmth and
increasing low level moisture ahead of an approaching central US
trough. For tonight, the main forecast challenge relies on low level
saturation and stratus trends. Model soundings and HREF
probabilities indicate a persistent subsidence inversion aloft
trapping boundary layer moisture. This will result in widespread
stratus overnight. With weak forcing and lack of deep moisture,
precipitation will be mostly limited to patchy drizzle and even this
should end no later than midnight. Overnight lows will remain quite
mild, generally in the middle 50s, due to the blanket of stratus and
steady southerly surface flow.

Tuesday and Wednesday.

A deep upper level trough positioned over portions of the Great
Plains and Rockies Monday will continue to amplify and eject towards
the upper Midwest. In response, a tightening pressure gradient and
subsequent height/pressure falls will aid in sustaining 35-40 kt of
southerly flow at 850mb, transporting unseasonably warm, moist air
from the Gulf across Indiana tomorrow. Strong WAA and vertical
mixing supports near-record high temperatures in the mid to upper
70s. However, a trailing cold front approaching from the west may
provide a small amount of synoptic ascent during the daytime for the
development of a few mid-to-high level clouds that could hinder high
temperatures by a few degrees, and prevent any records from being
broken.

By Tuesday evening, the trailing cold front associated with the
trough will be approaching areas to the west bringing with it a thin
corridor of 60+ dew points along the leading edge. Strong isentropic
ascent in the warm sector, PWAT values ~1.5 in slightly exceeding
the 99th percentile for early November will support the development
of widespread rain and thunderstorms in Illinois that will traverse
into Indiana with time. Despite 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear,
near-zero convective instability will preclude any widespread severe
threat. However, a damaging wind gust or two cannot be ruled out due
to 50-55 kt winds just above the surface.

In addition, the CAMs are indicating the potential of a dry air
intrusion to occur as the cold front passes through our area. In
turn, combined with very limited instability, convection, and
consequently rain rates, should weaken as the cold front traverses
across Indiana. As a result, rainfall totals could range anywhere
from 0.3-0.6 in, with areas in southern Indiana having the best
chance for higher rainfall amounts where less of the dry air may
preclude totals. However, in the event where the dry air intrusion
may be weaker or training of convective cells occurs, rainfall
totals could be as high as 1.5 in. Any flash flood potential will be
mitigated due to the onset of dry soil conditions over the last
month.

Once the cold front traverses the region Tuesday night, Wednesday
will bring light residual shower activity in the CAA region behind
the cold front, and more seasonable air with highs reaching into the
low 60s and lows reaching into the mid 40s.

Wednesday Night Through Monday.

Broad cyclonic flow and a cold core aloft may allow for lingering
stratocumulus through Thursday, but sensible weather will remain
dry. Highs will retreat into the low 60s on Thursday. Heading into
Friday and the weekend, ensemble guidance paints a high confidence
picture of a pattern shift toward more seasonable November weather.
Surface high pressure will slowly build eastward out of the Plains
while persistent northwest flow aloft dominates. Thermal profiles
highlight 850mb temperatures falling near or slightly below 0C. This
CAA regime will keep daytime highs suppressed in the 50s Friday
through Monday, with overnight lows dipping into the 30s and 40s. A
few weak shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow may pass
through the Great Lakes over the weekend, but moisture return looks
largely cut off by the Gulf of Mexico trajectory, keeping
precipitation chances minimal. We will maintain a largely dry
forecast through Monday with near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1148 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Impacts:

- High IFR and low MVFR cigs to improve to VFR during the overnight
  hours
- Lingering MVFR to IFR vsbys due to drizzle to improve to VFR after
  20Z
- Southerly wind gusts up to 25kt after 12Z Tuesday

 Discussion:

Low level saturation persists across central Indiana leading to
continued drizzle and low cigs. These conditions will improve this
evening into the overnight hours as dew point depressions begin to
increase as a response to drier air advecting in at the low levels.
Conditions should improve to VFR around 00Z but there are some signs
that low clouds may stick around into the early overnight with some
question how extensive they will be. Marginal LLWS conditions are
likely towards daybreak as the LLJ ramps up ahead of the Tuesday
night system, but should remain brief enough to not warrant a
mention in the TAF. Southeasterly winds will become more southerly
late tonight with gusts up to 25kt after 12Z tomorrow.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...SM/White