711
FXUS63 KIND 250524
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
124 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through Saturday with some elevated haze and smoke
  from Canadian wildfires

- Hot and humid conditions return Sunday and Monday with highs
  reaching the 90s

- Storm complexes possible Sunday night and Monday nights

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 951 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Ongoing respite of pleasant conditions and sub-seasonal temperatures
courtesy of Canadian high pressure drifting east over the Midwest...
will have one more period over central Indiana tonight.  Following
weak echoes that provided a few sprinkles Friday afternoon across
the region`s northern/southern/western perimeters...rain-free
conditions will again prevail per small supporting wave having
departed east, with any lingering mid-level weakness having drifted
south to the Ohio Valley.  That said thicker mid/high cloud over
most of Illinois will try to build into W/SW counties...although
slowly-departing ridge will assist, at least initially decreasing
clouds northeast of I-74.  Dewpoints to range from mid-50s east of
Muncie to 60s for most areas south/west of the Indianapolis Metro,
and morning lows by early Saturday from around 55F north of Anderson
to mid-60s Sullivan to Shoals and southwest. 80s to return Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 132 PM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Overview.

Dry and warm weather will continue through Saturday under high
pressure, though skies may appear hazy due to elevated smoke in
addition to the high clouds. Temperatures and humidity will increase
significantly Sunday into Monday as a heat dome expands eastward.
Thunderstorm complexes will bring rain and storm chances late Sunday
night through Monday night, with localized severe weather possible.
Dry weather then is expected through the remainder of the week with
warmer than normal temperatures.

Tonight Through Sunday.

Surface high pressure centered across the eastern Great Lakes will
maintain control of central Indiana weather through Saturday,
promoting broad-scale subsidence and light easterly winds veering to
southeasterly. High-resolution models, including HRRR and RAP smoke
transport fields, reveals a persistent plume of elevated wildfire
smoke advecting southeastward within upper-level northwest flow
beginning late tonight. This bring a return to hazy skies throughout
Saturday; however, boundary-layer mixing depth and surface
concentrations remain low enough to preclude surface visibility or
air quality impacts.

As the surface anticyclone shifts toward the Mid-Atlantic Saturday
night into Sunday, low-level WAA will intensify. A 850 MB moisture
plume will surge northward, pushing surface dewpoints into the low
to mid-70s by Sunday afternoon. Model soundings show steepening mid-
level lapse rates (6.5 to 7.0 C/km) beneath an amplifying upper-
level ridge. High temperatures on Sunday will climb into the upper
80s to low 90s, yielding afternoon SBCAPE values exceeding 2500-3000
J/kg. High MLCIN and weak synoptic forcing should suppress diurnal
thunderstorm development through much of the daytime on Sunday,
keeping conditions largely cap-inhibited until late evening.

Sunday Night Through Friday.

The synoptic regime through early next week will feature a major
upper-level heat dome centered over the Central Plains, placing the
Ohio Valley along the eastern periphery in a classic "ring of fire"
northwest flow pattern. Guidance from the GFS, ECMWF, and their
ensemble suites (GEFS and EPS) indicates multiple mid-level
shortwaves traversing the periphery of the ridge, interacting with
the warm, unstable boundary layer to trigger organized storm
complexes both Sunday night and Monday night. Monday night currently
looks to have the better chance for impacts across central Indiana
based on the current axis of the ridge, but that looks to generally
be more focused towards northeast Indiana. That being said, there
may be a southwestward trend in where the storm complexes may impact
as the global models often pin the initiation point too far north
and don`t track the progression along the theta-e gradient as well
as some of the higher resolution models.

High DCAPE values exceeding 1000 J/kg and PWAT values near 2.00
inches will make damaging wind gusts and localized heavy rainfall
the primary hazards with any organized MCS. In addition to the storm
threats, heat index values will climb into the 100-105 range Monday
which may need heat headlines in the coming days.

Following the cold frontal passage early Tuesday, drier continental
air will briefly build into the Great Lakes, pushing the primary
thunderstorm boundary south toward the Ohio River. High temperatures
on Tuesday and Wednesday will hover in the upper 80s with reduced
dewpoints. However, global ensembles agree on sub-tropical ridge
amplification over the Ohio Valley by Thursday and Friday. 500 MB
heights rising above 590dm, combined with strong solar insolation
and evapotranspiration, will drive maximum temperatures into the mid-
90s with heat index values approaching triple digits by the end of
the period.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 124 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Impacts:

- MVFR ceilings possible later after 15Z today

- Isolated showers are possible between 14-20Z today, primarily near
  KHUF/KBMG

Discussion:

Predominately VFR conditions are expected early in the TAF period.
Low-mid clouds will build in this morning with an approaching upper
level disturbance from the west. MVFR ceilings appear increasingly
likely at many of the TAF sites towards midday and into the
afternoon before improving later in the evening. KIND should remain
VFR, but cannot rule out brief MVFR ceilings. Isolated showers are
also possible between 14-20Z today, primarily near KHUF/KBMG. Winds
will remain light and shift more southerly this morning and
eventually southwesterly during the day.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...White