131
FXUS63 KIND 061823
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
223 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and t-storms possible this afternoon into tonight

- A few storms this afternoon and evening may contain heavy rain.
  An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

- A Humid, very warm week is ahead. Chances for rain are
  in the forecast every day through Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure in place over
Lake Superior and Ontario. High pressure was also found over east of
the Carolinas, providing southerly flow to Central Indiana. A
frontal boundary was found between these two systems, lying along a
IA...northern IL...MI line. Radar this afternoon shows rain that was
over Indiana had exited east. Water vapor shows an upper low over
TX. Ahead of this low a tropical plume of moisture with embedded
disturbances was found pushing into the TN and Mississippi Valleys.

Tonight...

Per the HRRR, and active CU growth across Central Indiana, diurnal
showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern parts of
Central Indiana late this afternoon persisting into the evening
hours. Warm and humid air along with ample CAPE across the state
will allow for TSRA development.

As heating is lost this evening, showers and storms should diminish
as the frontal boundary to the north continues to sag southward.
Thus will keep some rain chances in play this evening, especially
across the northern parts of the forecast area. Overnight low
temperatures will only fall to the upper 60s as high dew points are
in place across Central Indiana.

Sunday...

Better chances for rain will arrive on Sunday. An upper trough
within the flow aloft is expected to approach Indiana through the
day. Models suggest southwest flow and forcing dynamics ahead of
this system to push across Indiana. The previously mentioned surface
boundary will remain in place, adding a forcing feature available,
along with diurnal instability. Given the expected tropical flow
aloft, afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm development is
expected. Forecast soundings trend toward saturation with pwats over
1.8 inches. Thus, heavy rain will be in play with some of the
showers and storms. Look for Highs in the middle 80s.

Monday...

The wet pattern is expected to continue on Monday as the upper wave
continued its approach toward and across Indiana The warm and humid
air mass will remain in place, keeping a favorable set-up in place
for showers and storms. Confidence remains high for precipitation as
these features are in play. Highs once again should reach the middle
80s.

Tuesday through Friday Night...

Chances for rain will persist through much of the week ahead. An
upper trough will push across Indiana on Tuesday, and some weak
forcing dynamics will pass on Wednesday. Thereafter, upper ridging
is expected to be found east of Indiana, allowing southwest flow
aloft as a stronger trough approaches for Friday and Friday night.
Meanwhile through all this time, forecast soundings suggest steep
lapse rates and favorable CAPE each afternoon. The lower level flow
will predominately be warm and humid gulf flow as surface high
pressure will be stagnant east of the Carolinas. Thus best chances
for rain will be on Tuesday and again on Friday and Friday night
when the best forcing chances area expected to pass. Otherwise,
daily diurnal showers and storms cannot be ruled out. Given our
expected warm and humid gulf flow, warm and humid conditions will be
expected with highs in the upper 0s by late in the work week.

Saturday...

For the moment, dry and mild weather looks in store for Saturday.
The moderate passing wave and cold front on Friday Night will allow
surface high pressure over the northern plains build across Indiana,
allowing a cooler and less humid air mass to arrive across the area.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1211 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR conditions are expected this TAF period.

Discussion:

CU development along with sct-iso TSRA devlopment is expected this
afternoon as daytime heating and a frontal boundary sagging south
across Indiana set up favorable conditions for diurnal convection.
HRRR shows showers and storm development late this afternoon and
into the evening primarily remaining across points north of I-74.
Thus have mentioned VCTS and PROB30 groups at IND and LAF through
the afternoon and into the evening.

Overnight, the front will be lingering across Central Indiana, but
little to no forcing will arrive. Thus will keep the overnight
period dry with VFR Cigs.

Better chances for showers and storms will arrive on Sunday as some
upper forcing begins to push into the area ahead of an upper trough
to the west. Thus VCTS will return to the TAF forecasts after 14Z on
Sunday as daytime heating resumes.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma