753
FXUS63 KIND 091657
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1157 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near seasonal temperatures today; potential first 40 degree day
  for Indianapolis since November 26th.

- Numerous light rain showers tonight into Wednesday, transitioning
  to occasional snow showers late Wednesday through Friday

- Arctic outbreak expected this weekend with low temperatures down
  to near zero and potentially dangerous sub-zero wind chills

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 936 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Clouds continue to decrease across central Indiana this morning, so
adjusted sky cover as needed. However, clouds will be on the
increase again later today, especially north.

Will continue to monitor how temperatures respond to the available
sunshine and how fast clouds return. For now though have left high
temperatures alone.

Gusty winds will continue today, especially with some sunshine
enhancing the mixing potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 237 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Central Indiana is currently in a transition zone with strong SW flow
impinging on a departing area of high pressure. This has resulted
in very weak frontogenetic forcing just north of the area, of which
is producing low clouds and light snow. This area of snow may clip
far northern portions of central Indiana between 08-11Z this morning,
but a majority should fall to the north. Any snow that does fall
will likely not accumulate much, and therefor no impacts are
expected.

Following this, SW flow will increase rapidly, with surface winds
expected to become sustained at 10-15mph with gusts up to 30MPH
beginning shortly after dawn, but continuing throughout the day.
There will be strong WAA within this SW flow, leading to near
seasonal tempertures for the first time since before Thanksgiving.
Current expectation is for afternoon highs around 40 degrees near
Indianapolis, with slightly high temperatures to the south and lower
to the north.

Despite the strong SW flow, the upper level pattern will remain
similar, with clipper lows forming downstream supergeostrophic jet
streaks in the Canadian Rockies. Tonight`s low, will be much
stronger than previous iterations, but will pass well to the north
minimizing impacts to central Indiana. Still, numerous showers are
expected to pass through most of central Indiana tonight ahead of a
strong cold front (more on this in the long term). Total rain
amounts for central Indiana are likely to be less than a quarter
inch.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday through Monday)...
Issued at 237 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Wednesday through Friday...

Wednesday`s robust winds, gusting over 30 MPH, will veer from
southwest to west-northwest, bringing a transition from seasonably
cool and damp conditions, back to mainly subfreezing, yet
reasonably cold conditions through the end of the workweek.

A potent 990 mb surface low, tracking east across the southern Great
Lakes Wednesday, will quickly drag its cold front across central
Indiana during the morning.  Light rain will mix with and change to
snow showers through the midday and afternoon hours from north to
south, as temperatures fall through the 30s during the afternoon.
Vort max embedded within backside of the departing wave should help
coverage of flurries and snow showers increase around the late day
and evening timeframe, especially over northeastern zones that may
catch a lake-enhanced fetch.  Very light or no accumulation is
expected, with minor impacts possible on untreated roads Wednesday
night.

Wednesday`s earlier-day maximum readings, in the low to mid-40s,
will be the last near-normal highs for at least a week as stagnant
cold to very cold pattern returns through mid-month.  A less
pronounced polar surface ridge will slowly build into the Midwest
for the late workweek, with higher confidence in afternoons peaking
near 30F/overnights down to upper teens to mid-20s, and lower
certainty in timing/coverage and amounts/light accumulations of
any snow showers around the Thursday night timeframe that could
produce a thin coating for some areas.

Friday night through Monday...

Continued cold pattern to turn frigid this weekend as elongated
arctic air mass slowly builds into Indiana from its southeastern
corner on Friday night to the ridge`s center by the Sunday night
timeframe.  A bit of overriding Gulf moisture will likely provide
considerable cloudiness through at least the first half of the
weekend, including flurries to possibly light accumulating snow from
what should be an embedded clipper-type weakness crossing the
northern Midwest Saturday, ahead of the core of cold air.

Less cloud cover for the Sunday-Monday timeframes as the dome slides
east over the region should assist the lowest temperature readings.
Highs to be as low as 15-25F for most areas on both Saturday and
Sunday, with probably three very cold nights into the early workweek
featuring generally single digits north and 10-15F south.
Corresponding wind chills will range between values as low as the
negative single digits to single digits.  Assuming the arctic high
continues progressing eastward through the end of the long term,
hopefully a noticeable moderation back to near the freezing mark
will be on tap for the early week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1157 AM EST Tue Dec 9 2025

Impacts:

- Gusty winds through the period with 25 to 30kt becoming common,
  with higher gusts at times

- MVFR ceilings developing tonight and persisting into Wednesday

- Rain tonight, then mix of rain and snow Wednesday

 Discussion:

A low pressure system will bring gusty winds through the period.
Strong winds of 50kt and above will be 2000FT and above will occur
tonight, but will not include LLWS with gusty winds continuing at
the surface.

Widespread rain will move in tonight. Rain will mix with and change
to light snow during the day Wednesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...50