429
FXUS63 KIND 250640
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
240 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant Weather through Wednesday afternoon.

- Scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday evening into
  Thursday.

- Dry weather returns for late week into the weekend.

- Hotter and more humid air arriving Sunday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 240 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows strong high pressure in
place from SRN WI across Indiana to WVA. GOES19 shows clear skies
across Indiana. Aloft water vapor shows high pressure in place over
the American SW with ridging extending north, across the high plains
to MN. This continues to provide subsidence across Indiana. Dew
points were in the comfortable 50s.

Today...

Ridging aloft to the northwest is expected to push east into the
Great Lakes today, keeping Indiana and Ohio under the influence of
high pressure. Forecast soundings today and tonight show a dry
column as the surface high passes with an inversion aloft. This will
lead to mostly sunny skies today and mostly clear skies tonight,
with temperatures near or slightly below seasonal normals.

Wednesday...

A trough within the quick upper flow will be pushing through the
Great Lakes on Wednesday, providing the best forcing there. Weaker
forcing will be found across Indiana. A cold front associated with
the trough looks to pass across the area on late Wednesday night.
Forecast soundings through the day show little in the way of lower
level saturation, but do show mid and upper level saturation.
Afternoon instability appears weak. Thus confidence for any rain on
Wednesday appears low, but better chances will be in play on
Wednesday night with the cold front passage.

Thursday...

Models suggest a broad trough in place aloft by Thursday, extending
from Ontario, across Indiana to the Tennessee River Valley. The cold
front will have exited to the by Thursday, however forecast
soundings suggest diurnal convection will be possible attainable
convective temperatures and some CAPE in play. thus a few scattered
showers and storms will be possible on Thursday.

Friday through Monday...

Surface high pressure will be building across Indiana in the wake of
the previous frontal boundary, leading pleasant weekend weather. The
upper pattern suggests weak ridging aloft over the high plains and
into central Canada, leading to lee side subsidence across the Great
Lakes and Ohio Valley. Forecast soundings on Friday through Sunday
suggest a very dry column with no CAPE available along and a mid
level inversion in place. Thus dry weather with mostly clear skies
will be expected through the weekend. With easterly surface flow on
Friday slowly moderating to SW flow by Sunday, high temperatures on
in the lower 80s in Friday to the upper 80s on Sunday.

Chance for showers and storms will return on Monday as cold front
approaches from the northwest. A mid level thermal ridge appears to
be in place ahead of the front, pushing toward Indiana, and very
early forecast soundings suggest CAPE available in the afternoon
with diurnal convection possible. Thus pops at that time look
reasonable with another day in the upper 80s ahead of the cold
front.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 118 AM EDT Tue Aug 25 2026

Impacts:

- Fog possible at tHE outlying TAF sites early this morning;
  Otherwise VFR.

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions will continue across the TAF sites early
this morning through the day. Strong surface high pressure will
remain in place over Central Indiana during this TAF period.
Forecast soundings through the period remain quite dry and
convective temperatures will not be reached. This will result in
mostly clear skies through the period.

A caveat early this morning will be possible fog development. dew
point depressions will become minimal overnight at the outlying
areas with clear skies and light winds. Thus some fog is not out
of the question.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma