049
FXUS63 KIND 241803
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
203 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry yet pleasant fall weather continues through much of next week
  with above normal afternoon highs

- Patchy fog may occur in low lying areas late night/early mornings.

- A wetter pattern may take shape for the Halloween weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 203 PM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows strong high pressure centered
over eastern PA, eastern NY and the upper St. Lawrence river valley.
This large high was extending its influence west across Indiana to
eastern TX and Eastern OK. A frontal boundary was found over the
eastern Dakotas and the high plains. High, thin CI was found across
much of Indiana, providing filtered sunshine. Water Vapor showed
strong ridging still in place aloft over the upper Mississippi
Valley and western Great Lakes, but a tropical plume of moisture
was noted on the back side of the ridge, streaming north across the
high plains.

Tonight...

The strong ridge axis aloft to the west is expected to slide
eastward overnight. This continue to protect Indiana from any
forcing dynamics, steering them well to the north. This will result
in the strong surface high to the east to the sink to the middle
Atlantic states, but continue to dominate Indiana/s weather with dry
lower levels and light southeast winds. Forecast soundings through
the night show a dry column, with some passing saturation aloft,
which is indicative of high passing CI. Thus mostly clear skies will
be expected tonight, with persistence type lows in the middle to
upper 40s.

Sunday through Monday...

The strong upper ridge that will be over Indiana tonight is
expected to stall and remain across the area on Sunday through
Monday. This will once again steer forcing dynamics well north of
Indiana and keep a dry air mass in place. The surface high will
remain over the middle Atlantic states, providing southeasterly
lower level flow on Sunday becoming southwest on Monday.
Furthermore, by late Monday a new area of strong, Canadian high
pressure is expected to arrive across the Great Lakes on Monday
Night as a cuspy area between high pressure systems passes. Forecast
soundings through Monday show dry lower and mid levels with
subsidence in play beneath the ridge. Only a few passing high CI
will be noted. Thus more mostly sunny days and mostly clear nights
with above normal temperatures.

Tuesday through Saturday...

More dry fall weather with above normal temperatures is expected
during the week ahead.

Models show the upper ridge axis over Indiana on Tuesday shifting
farther east by Thursday. Meanwhile the upper flow containing any
forcing dynamics remains well north of Indiana, across Canada. By
Thursday through Saturday, a deep upper low is expected to set up
over the Pacific NW. This will result in a quick tropical flow aloft
to stream across the American SW before reaching a ridge axis over
the Plains and Great Lakes. Little in the way of forcing looks to
arrive within this southerly jet aloft until Saturday, when a weak
wave looks to pass across Indiana. Confidence in this 7 days out is
low.

Withing the lower levels, strong high pressure will once again
develop on the lee side of the upper ridge, providing dry weather
for the country for most points east of the Mississippi. Southerly
lower level flow looks to return on Friday and Saturday, which may
lead to the warmest days of the week. Furthermore, the southerly
flow on Saturday in combination with the possible upper support may
provide additional support for rain. Thus overall, expect dry
weather weather for Tuesday through Friday and some very low
confidence chances for rain on Saturday. Temperatures will remain
above seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1153 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2026

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions this TAF period.

Discussion:

Due to strong high pressure set up northeast of Indiana, skies will
remain mostly clear to partly cloudy with only passing cirrus aloft.
The high CI are ridging down the lee side of the ridge and pushing
into the Wabash Valley.  Forecast soundings remain dry through the
period. Dew point depressions tonight look to remain greater than 3F
with some high cloud cover. Thus will leave out fog mentions for now.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma