315
FXUS63 KIND 221759
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
159 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and cooler weather through Friday with warmer temperatures
  returning this weekend.

- Low chances for showers and storms and heat returns next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 159 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows strong high pressure centered
over the northern plains states with a surface ridge nosing SE to
Indiana and Ohio. This was resulting in north to NE surface flow
across Central Indiana and cooler temperatures compared to recent
weather. Dew points were in the upper 40s and low 50s. GOES19 shows
just some scattered and broken CU across the area. Aloft, ridging
was found over the western CONUS, with NW flow spilling from western
Canada into the Ohio Valley.

Tonight through Friday...

Relatively little change is expected during the period within the
upper levels. Strong ridging is expected to continue to reside over
the western CONUS, resulting lee side subsidence. This will result
in the strong high pressure system that is over the northern plains
to slowly work its way SE through Friday. Cooler easterly surface
flow is expected to persist on Thursday, before further veering
occurs on Friday with flow from the southeast. This will allow highs
the next few days to return to near 80 degrees as the air mass
modifies. Humidity will also remain somewhat pleasant as dew points
remain in the 50s due to the east and southeast component of the
winds.

Forecast soundings through the period continue to suggest a dry
column with potential for afternoon CU as convective temperatures
are reached. This will result in partly cloudy, pleasant days and
mostly clear nights.

Saturday through Wednesday...

Dry weather with a warming trend is expected on Saturday and Sunday.
That warming trend will continue into Monday through Wednesday, but
small chances for thunderstorms will be present.

The ongoing, persistent pattern of strong ridging aloft over the
western CONUS will continue trough Sunday. This will will keep the
NW flow aloft in place over Indiana along with ongoing subsidence.
The strong surface high will control our weather, but drift east and
allow warmer, southerly flow as temperatures reach the 80s on
Saturday and Near 90 on Sunday.

Models continue to show strong ridging in place west of Indiana on
Monday through Wednesday, blocking much in the way of upper support.
However within the lower levels, low pressure moving through the
Great Lakes toward the middle Atlantic states suggest a cold front
will drag across Indiana late Monday into Tuesday. Minimal change in
air mass appears in play as there is little change in temperature in
the wake of the front. Forecast soundings on Monday through
Wednesday show plenty of CAPE available, but very warm mid levels
near 13-14C at 700mb. Thus capping could be in play. For now, small
pops for diurnal convection and with the frontal passage will be
included on Monday afternoon through Wednesday afternoon, but
confidence is low at this point. Highs will remain above normal
early next week, in the low to middle 90s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1254 PM EDT Wed Jul 22 2026

Impacts:

- None; VFR conditions expected.

Discussion:

High pressure building across the TAF sites during this period will
continue to provide VFR conditions. Forecast soundings suggest a dry
column amid subsidence. Diurnal VFR CU will be present during
heating hours as convective temperatures are reached.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Puma