609
FXUS63 KIND 301740
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1240 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Blustery conditions today with perhaps some flurries north

- Slick areas on roads remain possible today

- Additional snow chances late Monday into early Tuesday for all
  areas

- Wind chills at night...into the teens through Monday night...down
  to possibly near zero Wednesday night

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

No significant changes made to the forecast this morning. We did add
more weight to high-resolution guidance for T/Td through tonight as
this seems to better capture ongoing cold air advection.
Additionally, bumped the wind speeds/gusts a bit to better match
observations. Winds have been gusting to 40mph around sunrise but
have since diminished slightly. Though gusty, a continual but slow
downward trend is expected as surface low pressure pulls away. A few
scattered flurries are possible as well, especially this evening as
winds align more parallel to Lake Michigan. Southward extent of
flurry activity will be limited by decreasing wind speeds.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 300 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Early This Morning...

Ahead of a cold front early this morning, temperatures have
risen to above freezing across central Indiana, and precipitation
has changed to rain. These temperatures will allow some melting,
especially over the southern two-thirds of the area that saw lighter
snowfall amounts.

However, as the cold front passes in the pre-dawn hours,
temperatures will fall back to below freezing. This will allow water
on untreated surfaces to refreeze, creating additional slick spots.
Winds will gust over 30mph with and behind the front. However, not
seeing much in the way of blowing snow upstream in areas that
received higher amounts. The brief warming period may help to
moisten the top layer of the deeper snow to prevent significant
blowing. Any additional precipitation behind the front will be
flurries or isolated snow showers.

Given the above, will cancel all winter weather products with this
issuance. Will issue a Special Weather Statement to highlight
potential slick spots and travel impacts of these.

Today...

During the day today, low level moisture will be trapped underneath
an inversion, and this should keep skies mostly cloudy to cloudy.
Some weak lift from an upper trough to the north may bring some
flurries to the northern forecast area.

Temperatures won`t do much today with cloud cover and cold
advection, with temperatures generally in the middle and upper 20s.
Winds will make it feel like the teens.

Tonight...

Some upper energy moving southeast may clip the far northern
forecast area, but if anything were to reach the local area, only a
few flurries would be expected. Lake effect snow showers should
remain north of central Indiana.

Subsidence behind this feature and with surface high pressure moving
in may be enough to poke some holes in the low cloud cover. Some mid
and high clouds will be moving in from the west overnight ahead of
the next system though.

Thus, still expect mostly cloudy to cloudy skies. If breaks get big
enough, temperatures in the north where deeper snow cover exists
could get colder than expected. For now though, will keep lows in
the upper teens north to the lower 20s south.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 329 AM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Monday through Wednesday...

*UNSEASONABLY COLD...NIGHTTIME WIND CHILLS IN TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS*
*ACCUMULATING SNOW LIKELY LATE MONDAY TO EARLY TUESDAY*

Mid-winter pattern to continue into the mid-week as broad and deep
polar low over Hudson Bay maintains pattern of surface high pressure
from western Canada into central CONUS/Midwest under moderately
strong and generally confluent H500 flow.  Quasi-split energy amid
deep trough extending to southern US will recombine as next short
wave both lifts slightly and tilts while tracking from Four Corners
region at end of short term...into Indiana by Monday night.

Cold column amid H850 temperature gradient from negative 9 to
negative 3 degrees Celsius...and corresponding surface weakness
tracking well to our southeast...will promote an all-snow type amid
what should be a brief burst of moderate to possibly heavy snow
during the Monday night timeframe.  Forecast soundings suggest an
overall colder profile than recent system that did about a 10:1 SLR
for much of the region... yet what should be a widespread isothermal
layer within 700-850 mb around negative 10 degrees Celsius should
limit residence in the dendritic growth zone and keep ratios below
15:1.  Comparatively colder ground and nocturnal timing should make
for more efficient accumulations...with QPF ranging around 0.15-0.30
inches promoting widespread light accumulations.  Greater potential
for areas of moderate snowfall over southeast zones with system
progged to organize and intensify as it passes to out
southeast...although low confidence in where any better banding
might set-up given wider range of solutions regarding spatial
distribution.

Thankfully overall lower wind speeds can be expected through the
Monday-Tuesday periods courtesy of weaker gradient within next
surface ridge arriving from the southern Plains.  Just the same,
temperatures through Tuesday ranging from around 20F to perhaps the
low 30s will associated wind chills only 5-10 degrees lower than dry
bulb readings.  Breezy conditions to return Wednesday, allowing wind
chills only into 20s despite southwest flow boosting readings back
into 30s.

Wednesday night through Saturday...

**ANOMALOUSLY FRIGID THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY...WIND CHILLS ALONG/NORTH
OF I-70 POTENTIALLY RANGING FROM NEGATIVE 5 TO 15 DEGREES*

Coldest weather and lowest wind chills yet this season to impact
central Indiana during Wednesday night to Thursday night timeframe
as arctic cold front ahead of next northwestern surface ridge
crosses Midwest Wednesday night.  Appears only weak forcing aloft
which would limit snow chances/amounts, but modest return of column
moisture ahead of this boundary could allow a few accumulating snow
showers, especially for northern zones.

Bigger story to be frigid air mass tracking over snow-covered
territory to our northwest amid its approach.  Limited modification
will allow temperatures possibly into single digits by early
Thursday, which would translate into potentially sub-zeo wind chills
amid moderate northwest breezes.  What should be an anomalously cold
day Thursday amid diminishing breezes will potentially set-up a very
cold overnight into Friday where lows near zero would be on the
table for northern zones where a thick snow pack will still be
present...with wind chills possibly falling into the negative single
digits for at least some of the region.

Yet another opportunity for at least light winter precipitation will
occur through the last few periods of the long term...albeit with
lower confidence given run to run inconsistency and uncertainty
regarding timing and location of supporting forcing amid the
somewhat disorganized upper trough over the central US.  Slight
moderation expected during this late week period, so an overall snow
to rain trend would be expected should at least light precipitation
occur.  The normal max/min at Indianapolis through the long term is
44/29.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1240 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

Impacts:

- Predominant MVFR conditions through tonight
- Flurries possible into this evening
- Gusty winds around 25-30kt this afternoon

Discussion:

Gusty W-WNW winds behind a departing storm system continue today
with frequent gusts to 25-30kt. These winds will die down this
evening, becoming light and variable overnight. Winds pick up
slightly and become east-southeasterly after 12Z Monday.

MVFR ceilings will be present through today and into tonight.
Guidance shows the low clouds breaking up towards morning right as
some mid to high-level cloud cover advances from the west. Ceilings
between 6000-10000ft are expected Monday morning into afternoon.

Snow becomes likely Monday night, though this is after the end of
the TAF period and will not be included just yet.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Eckhoff
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...Eckhoff