055
FXUS63 KIND 011907
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
307 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- One more warm day today

- Widespread rain expected tonight into Friday morning, with amounts
  of one half to one inch

- Dry and much cooler weather expected over the weekend into next
  week; potential for first lows to drop into the 30s across portions
  of central Indiana Tuesday morning

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Last day of warmth, at least for a while, before below to near
normal temperatures return behind a cold front passing through
central Indiana. The front will slowly sag southeastward through the
area starting late this evening lasting through midday tomorrow.

Rain will be associated with the front and while instability will be
limited, can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Precipitable water
values may approach 2 inches at their peak, which is near
climatological maximum for the time of year, but without a more
substantial convective component or stronger forcing, expect QPF
amounts to be limited to a widespread one half to one inch through
the event.

Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front leaving the
remainder of the forecast period to have dry and pleasant fall
conditions for the start of October. Highs this weekend into at
least mid next week will be in the 60s to 70s while lows are
expected to be in the 40s to 50s. There is a chance Monday night
that the first appearance of frost could arrive, mainly in our N/NE
as lows could drop into the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 221 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Impacts:

- Southwesterly wind gusts between 20-25 KT this afternoon

- Rain expected tonight, storms possible

- IFR conditions possible tomorrow morning

Discussion:

Sustained winds of 10-15KT with gusts 20-25KT can be expected this
afternoon, from around 200-230 degrees. Gusts will subside in the
evening and winds will begin to veer westerly and then northerly as
the front slowly sags into the area. Widespread rain will accompany
this front, and a few rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

Conditions will likely deteriorate as the front passes, with low
clouds likely to develop. Guidance suggests widespread IFR late
tonight and lasting into Friday. Rain is expected to come to an end
by the end of the TAF period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...KF