019
FXUS63 KIND 041505
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1005 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Overall coverage of showers will diminish today.

- Wind gusts between 20-30 mph possible at times.

- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late
  this week through early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1003 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Forecast is in decent shape this morning. Upper forcing produced
rain farther to the north than anticipated, so upped PoPs north as
needed this morning.

Initial boundary is moving east into the central part of the
forecast area, with a wind shift to the southwest behind it. The
lower dewpoints lag behind this boundary back into eastern Illinois.

Radar shows another slug of rainfall moving into the southeast and
eventually into eastern forecast area, so upped PoPs there as needed
as well. Rain will taper off elsewhere, but additional patchy light
rain or some drizzle may still develop this afternoon. Will keep
some low PoPs going then.

Weak elevated instability will continue ahead of the drier air
moving in. Can`t rule out a rumble of thunder, but odds are too low
to include in the forecast.

Temperatures will climb a bit before cold advection begins this
afternoon and allows readings to fall some, especially west.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...
Issued at 1241 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

A positively-tilted trough located over the Great Plains is slowly
tilting more negatively this evening. At the surface, low pressure
centered over Minnesota is lifting northward with a trailing cold
front extending well southward through Iowa, Missouri, Arkansas, and
through Texas. Surface low pressure is beginning to reform over
eastern Kansas into southwest Iowa as the base of the trough gains
negative tilt. This secondary low will then become the primary low
overnight, lifting northward into Wisconsin.

Here in Indiana, the tightening pressure gradient from the low over
Iowa will help drive a potent 40-50kt low-level jet northward
tonight. Strong warm air advection is ongoing with temperatures near
70 as of 9pm. Surface winds have largely died down, compared to
earlier, which is due to increasing boundary layer stability. ACARS
soundings out of IND show a rather deep stable layer, roughly to 3km
agl, which will inhibit downward momentum transfer for the time
being. Soundings also show a rather dry column with substantial
dryness in the mid and upper-levels. As such, buoyancy is almost non-
existent in the current soundings.

Going forward, guidance is in good agreement showing greater moisture
advection in a narrow band ahead of the approaching cold front. This
will help improve the thermodynamic environment overnight from a
convective standpoint. Nevertheless, poor lapse rates and a stable
boundary layer will limit instability to under 500 J/Kg MUCAPE.
Thunderstorms are still possible, however, due to limited CIN and
sufficient large-scale forcing. Severe weather does not appear
likely, again due to poor lapse rates and limited instability. Gusty
winds are possible at least initially as rainfall encounters
residual dry air.

Showers and embedded thunderstorms have entered our CWA form the
southwest as of this writing (12am), progressing northeastward
rapidly. High-resolution guidance shows a QLCS weakening it as it
encounters the dry and stable pre-frontal environment. Gradually, as
the column becomes saturated, heavier showers and embedded storms
arrive later tonight and towards morning. Rainfall amounts between
0.25 and 0.75 inches will be most common, with locally heavier
amounts possible further south and east.

Scattered showers may linger into the afternoon until the cold
arrives around 18z. After that, westerly surface winds and mostly
cloudy skies are anticipated. Highs today will likely occur before
sunrise.

Thursday and Friday...

Thursday looks quiet ahead of an approaching upper trough and
surface cold front. The trough and cold front will move through
Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will be limited with the Gulf
cut off. Will have some mainly slight chance PoPs on Friday, with
the most coverage expected during the first half of the day.

Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to middle 60s, but Friday
will see mainly upper 50s for highs as cooler air moves in behind
the front.

Saturday onward...

Northwest flow will continue Saturday into early next week. An upper
low moving through southeast Canada will bring another cold front on
Sunday. Similar to Friday though, moisture will be very limited with
the Gulf cut off again. Will go with a dry forecast through the
entire period.

The cold front won`t have much cold air behind it. Highs in the
middle 50s on Saturday will gradually moderate to the lower and
middle 60s by Tuesday. Lows will be near freezing for parts of the
area Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 647 AM EST Wed Nov 4 2026

Impacts:

- Widespread showers expected through this morning before tapering
  off during the afternoon

- Predominately MVFR cigs through the period with brief IFR cigs
  possible this morning, brief VFR cigs possible 17-23Z today

- Occasional wind gusts between 17-21 kt are possible today

Discussion:

Widespread rain is ongoing as a system pushes through the region.
Predominately MVFR cigs are expected through the period, but brief
improvement to low end VFR appears possible, mainly between 17-23Z
today. There is also potential for brief IFR cigs this morning. Rain
showers will become more isolated to scattered in coverage towards
midday before eventually tapering off during the afternoon.

Surface winds will veer to west-southwesterly after the cold
front passes through this afternoon. Gusts between 17-21 kt are
possible today.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...50/Eckhoff