798
FXUS63 KIND 041356
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
956 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mostly sunny and very warm today and Sunday.

- Next best chance for rain is late Monday night through Tuesday
  night.

- Dry weather with seasonable temperatures return on Wednesday and
  Thursday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

A weakness in the upper ridge continues across the northwest
forecast area this morning, and some weak elevated instability
lingers there. Satellite and webcams show some mid cloud with
vertical growth across portions of the western and northern forecast
areas.

The weakness in the upper ridge will diminish/move north today as
the upper high to the southeast increases its influence across the
area. This should help put a cap on/diminish the elevated
instability. Cannot rule out an isolated shower later this morning
into the afternoon in the northwest, but for now believe odds are
too low to mention.

Otherwise, look for dry and very warm conditions with highs in the
middle and upper 80s once again. Tweaked high temperatures but no
significant changes were made.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Surface analysis this morning shows strong high pressure in
place over the middle Atlantic States, with a surface ridge axis
extending west across Kentucky to Arkansas and MO. Light southerly
winds were in place and dew point temps were rather moist, in the
lower 60s. Satellite shows a few lingering CU clouds over NW Central
Indiana, Otherwise, skies were mostly clear across much of the
region. Aloft, water vapor showed a large, broad ridge in place over
the eastern half of the country, with a ridge axis set up near IL
and IN. Subsidence was found over Indiana and much of the
Mississippi Valley.

Today and Tonight...

Little change is expected in our overall weather today and tonight.
models suggest the strong ridging aloft will slowly move across
Central Indiana reaching the east coast by Sunday morning. This will
result in continued subsidence today and tonight, as seen within the
forecast soundings and time height sections. Forecast soundings do
show CU development today, but a mid level inversion in place aloft
along with the overall subsidence should prevent and CU from
developing into showers or storms. Cu will dissipate tonight as
forecast sounding become dry and daytime heating is lost, leading to
mostly clear skies.

With little overall change in the airmass, expect highs at or
slightly above persistence and similar lows.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 225 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Sunday and Sunday Night...

More Dry and warm weather will be expected on Sunday and Sunday
night as little overall change in the air mass occurs. The ridging
aloft will have drifted east allowing for a more southwesterly flow
aloft flowing into Indiana. The strong surface high and ridge looks
to still be in control, and once again forecast soundings appear
dry. Thus another warm, mostly sunny day and mostly clear night will
be expected.

Monday through Tuesday...

This will be our next best chance for rain. Models here suggest
forcing dynamics will be arriving with the southwest flow aloft and
combining with more forcing dynamics arriving from the northwest as
an upper trough and associated cold front begin to push out of the
northern plains. All of this does not appear to come together until
later in the day across Indiana and into Monday night and Tuesday.
Thus, Monday should start dry, with rain chances increasing through
the day and best chances arriving on Monday night into Tuesday as
forecast soundings show deep saturation at that point with pwats
over 1.60 inches. Thus high pops will be expected on Monday Night.
The cold front will associated with this system is shown to be
slowly pushing across the state on Tuesday and at the moment
forecast soundings remain mostly saturated through the day. Thus
some lingering showers through the day, particularly in the morning,
cannot be ruled out and pops will be needed.  Increasing clouds and
rain will result in some cooler highs, with noticeably cooler temps
on Tuesday.

Wednesday Through Friday...

Much cooler weather will arrive behind the frontal passage as strong
Canadian surface high pressure builds into Indiana with ridging and
subsidence aloft. This will return our temperatures much closer to
seasonal normals with the potential for some below normal
temperatures.  Another upper trough is shown for now to arrive on
Thursday Night into Friday, however moisture may be a problem for
this feature. NBM may include some pops.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 621 AM EDT Sat Oct 4 2025

Impacts:

- None; VFR Expected

Discussion:

Overall Little change to the ongoing TAF`s

Brief patchy MVFR Fog will be possible at BMG near 12Z. This fog
will dissipate quickly after sunrise.

VFR conditions are expected to continue at the terminals through
Sunday. GOES19 shows clear skies across Central Indiana. Unlimited
cigs are expected.

Forecast soundings today suggest sct bkn CU, but an inversion aloft
should prevent deep growth. Furthermore ridging aloft will provide
continued subsidence.

Afternoon CU will dissipate again as heating is lost, leading to
continued unlimited cigs overnight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...Puma