024
FXUS63 KIND 161052
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
652 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active weather pattern for much of the week with daily rain/storm
chances through Thursday

- Severe weather possible Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday Night

- Generally humid this week...upper 80s/low 90s likely next weekend

- Heat related illnesses are possible Saturday-Sunday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

A residual boundary in the region will be the item to watch through
the day and tonight, stretching off of a weak low over the
Ozarks/ArkLaTex region. Winds will stay light but are expected to
shift from NE to S as the day goes on.

Multiple convectively generated MCVs over the MO valley will move
eastward today, phasing with and increasing the broader shortwave
trough that remains over the MS valley. Increasing mid level
forcing, lift from these mesoscale and synoptic scale features will
support increasing precipitation across the area starting late this
morning continuing into the evening hours. Forecast soundings
support some threat for thunderstorms during the afternoon if skies
can clear some, but at the moment only will keep slight chance of
thunderstorms giving the uncertainties in degree of heating/
destabilization during the afternoon hours. Best chances for showers
will be across the southern half of the forecast area, but can`t be
ruled out for the northern half, and will continue through the
overnight and beyond.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 332 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

The long term will include an increasingly active pattern through
the mid-week...a less active, yet very warm and rather humid late
work week...and probably the region`s first widespread hot/humid
conditions this weekend.

Tuesday through Wednesday...

Scattered showers and a few non-severe t-storms will be the story
for Tuesday, especially east of I-69 where a small mid-level
weakness, amid the otherwise benign pattern, will be focused.  Light
to moderate southwesterly breezes will push high humidity into the
region with low-70s dewpoints making the seasonable warmth feel
closer to 90 degrees.  Can not rule out a couple stronger storms
Tuesday, with severe weather expected to remain west of the region.

Potential severe weather to return to central Indiana on Wednesday
into Wednesday night when a couple vort maxs embedded within a broad
H500 short wave over the Heartland eventually enter the Midwest.
Continued warmth with robust southwesterly winds boosting dewpoints
to near 75F will produce high instability during the day...which
could fuel a first round of storms that might be partially-mitigate
by very low wind shear to start.  Likely 50-70KT of bulk shear
arriving over much of the region during evening and overnight hours
could then present a greater potential for severe weather despite
much lower/decreasing instability, which nonetheless should feature
ample mid-level lapse rates through much of the evening over
portions of the CWA.  Continue to monitor updates this week towards
this severe potential.

Thursday and Friday...

Thursday to be a transitional timeframe amid the system`s slowly-
passing cool frontal zone and supporting H500 trough.  Decreasing
precipitable water should eventually drop to half of Wednesday`s
anomalous levels...with only a few widely-scattered showers/t-storms
lingering.  Surface flow diminishing while backing to WNW should
bring a somewhat milder day...with hopefully at least modest
advection of lower dewpoints allowing one overnight`s readings to
drop to normal levels.  Flow to likely return to southwesterly to
end the workweek, which would return very warm and more humid,
albeit rain-free conditions.

Saturday and Sunday...

Although latest guidance is indicating small/weak disturbances
across the CONUS` northern tier that should suppress the late-week
upper ridge`s amplification...this subtropical presence will
nonetheless be very broad from the Four Corners region to the
Carolina coast...with the axis of an expanding and nearly-stationary
H500 594 dm thickness extending from the Deep South to Michigan by
Sunday.  Central Indiana is progged to be sitting under 20 degree
Celsius H850 temperatures, amid at times moderate southwesterly
breezes.  The CWA can expect daytime highs at marginally hot levels
both days, although oppressive humidity with dewpoints of 70-75
degrees would promote maximum heat index values around 95 to
potentially just over 100 degrees.  Rain-free conditions are
expected for essentially all locations under a quasi-capped thermal
profile.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 652 AM EDT Mon Jun 16 2025

Impacts:

- Brief MVFR VIS possible early this morning at KBMG in BR
- Brief periods of MVFR CIG possible midday today at KBMG
- Isolated to scattered -SHRA with embedded TSRA from midday today
  through end of TAF period, at all sites except KLAF
- Deteriorating CIGs at KHUF/KBMG after 04Z tonight...and at KIND
  after 6Z tonight

Discussion:

Mainly VFR conditions to prevail through this evening although
increasing chances of -SHRA and a few TSRA today may bring very
brief MVFR, especially at KIND and KBMG.  A quick deterioration in
ceilings to MVFR/possible IFR to occur later tonight from south to
north.

Overall light winds will be variable this morning, and from
generally southerly directions starting this afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...KF
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...AGM