269
FXUS63 KIND 031712
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1212 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry conditions and near record warmth are expected today with
  highs in the mid 70s, wind gusts up to 30-35 mph are possible today

- Widespread rain arrives late tonight and continues into Wednesday

- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late
  this week through early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 939 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Area of clouds has overspread the western half or so of the forecast
area this morning. Upped sky cover to reflect this.

At the moment, believe that these clouds will mix out some by early
afternoon, so allowed sky cover to return to partly cloudy. Given
this, made no changes to high temperatures yet. If clouds hang in
longer than expected, may have to nudge down temperatures later
today.

Gusty winds are still expected as mixing deepens, with gusts to
near 20kt already noted even under cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 257 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

A low pressure system and parent deep trough currently located near
the Central Plains will lift northeastward through the day today.
The low pressure system is expected to continue deepening as it
pushes into the Midwest before eventually occluding on Wednesday.
Meanwhile, a strong LLJ continues to shift eastward which will help
to advect warm, rich Gulf moisture northward late today into
tonight.

Increasing dynamics from the approaching system combined with deeper
moisture surging northward supports widespread precipitation by late
tonight. The greatest precipitation chances are from late tonight
through Wednesday morning as a narrow corridor of strong isentropic
ascent moves across an anomalously moist warm sector. The strongest
forcing should then begin to shift east of the area Wednesday
afternoon leading to lower coverage of showers. Lingering moisture
and marginal forcing will likely still support scattered light
showers or drizzle at times though. QPF amounts over an inch
appear possible across southeast portions of central Indiana,
where the strongest forcing and deeper moisture are likely to
overlap.

Diurnal mixing into the strong LLJ may promote strong wind gusts up
to 35 mph during the day today. Isolated higher gusts cannot be
completely ruled out. Near record temperatures in the mid 70s are
also possible from the strong southerly flow. The forecasted high
temperature for Indianapolis this afternoon is 76F and the record
high temperature is 77F. Clouds may limit overall heating slightly
which leads to some uncertainty. It is worth noting though that the
latest guidance has trended towards less cloud cover during the day
thanks to drier air briefly filtering in ahead of the low pressure
system.

Quiet weather conditions are expected Wednesday night into Thursday
once drier air filters in behind a cold front. Model guidance
generally depicts multiple shortwaves moving through the region
within northwest flow aloft late this week through early next week.
Weak forcing from these features could support low rain chances at
times, mainly Friday and Sunday, but limited moisture return due to
the Gulf remaining cutoff leads to lower confidence. Cold air
advection will lead to cooler more seasonable conditions later this
week with highs in the upper 50s to low 60s by Friday. Seasonable
conditions then persist through early next week, featuring highs
generally in the mid to upper 50s and lows in the 30s to low 40s.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1212 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Impacts:

- Southerly wind gusts near 30kt possible this afternoon, with gusts
  near 25kt possible tonight

- Widespread showers expected late tonight into Wednesday morning

- MVFR ceilings developing after 06Z Wednesday

 Discussion:

Current VFR ceilings around 5000FT will break up early but then
return after 00Z. Ceilings will lower to MVFR after 06Z then will
persist past 18Z Wednesday.

Strong winds will be aloft through tonight, but surface wind gusts
will also be around. Highest gusts are expected this afternoon.

Widespread rain will move in mainly overnight and persist into
Wednesday. Isolated thunder cannot be ruled out, but odds are much
too low to include in the TAFs.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...Melo