839
FXUS63 KIND 031129
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
629 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with above normal temperatures through Friday

- Better chance for widespread rain on Friday

- Cooler for the weekend with chances for light precipitation

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Shortwave ridging is attempting to build over the Ohio Valley
this morning, but will quickly be undercut by another upper low over
Canada. This low is expected to pass well to the north, but there is
some weak frontogenetic forcing beneath this upper low, of which
will lead to local pressure depletion and a return to quasi-zonal
flow through the short term. The only surface level impacts of this
frontal passage will be some mid level cloud cover due to moderate
moisture convergence and a wind shift from southerly to westerly.

Warm air advection behind this upper wave passage will quickly build
surface pressure with strong high pressure expected just to the
south of Indiana late today through tomorrow. Subsequent subsidence
should squander any additional cloud formation leading to mostly
clear skies over the next 48 hours. With central Indiana still on
the threshold between building high pressure to the south and a
developing low to the NW, greater PGF today will likely lead to a
fairly strong LLJ. Given moderate surface level lapse rates, mixing
is expected with frequent gusts to 20-25mph late this morning
into the afternoon. Once mixing maximizes, temperatures should
plateau some, but still are likely to be warmer than prior days
with highs near 60.

Overnight, PBL decoupling will end any gusting and building pressure
from the south should slowly calm surface winds. This in combination
with clear skies will push temperatures back into the upper 30s
tomorrow morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 255 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Ensemble guidance is in fairly good agreement showing a prevailing
quasi-zonal and progressive jet pattern. A storm track mainly to our
north combined with little low-level moisture return will limit
precipitation chances this week. Some of the storm systems passing
to our north may drag a series of cold fronts across Indiana this
week, Monday and Wednesday respectively. Little aside from a wind
shift and cooler temperatures appears likely. Breezy southwesterly
flow (gusts 20-30mph Wed afternoon) ahead of the front on Wednesday
may allow for a quick rebound to warmer-than-average temperatures
with highs approaching 70.

Guidance is hinting at a deeper trough taking shape over the western
US around midweek. Though deterministic guidance differs in the
details, they generally show lee cyclogenesis over the northern
Plains with an increasing low-level jet and northward mass response.
This would represent the first real push of Gulf moisture northward
in a while. Despite the low likely passing to our north similar to
the ones before it, rain chances appear much better on Friday.

This system is still five days out, however, and key details need to
be ironed out within guidance. Latest trends have been a bit faster
and back towards a slightly more amplified parent trough. Still,
enough of a signal exists to carry chance to likely PoPs on Thursday
night/Friday, albeit sooner and further east than previous forecast
cycles. Guidance hints at second trough diving southward behind
the front, which may allow precipitation chances to continue into
the weekend. Model trends are also hinting at a shot of colder-
than-average temperatures late in the weekend or early next week.

Guidance depicts the pattern potentially becoming a bit more
amplified as we head into the weekend. Ensemble spread increases
substantially after the Friday system. Forecast uncertainty after
Friday is high, so take deterministic guidance output with a
decently large grain of salt.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 629 AM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Impacts:

- Winds gusting to around 20-25kt on Monday and again Tuesday.

Discussion:

A BKN to OVC layer of stratocumulus is passing through Indiana as of
12z. Ceilings are generally 14k-18k feet, with some lower FEW/SCT
clouds around 4k-5k feet agl. Clouds will persist through mid
morning before dissipating as we head into the afternoon.

Generally southwest winds will continue through much of the day,
becoming more westerly late. Gusts will develop by mid-morning
Monday with gusts to around 20-25kt expected. Winds are expected to
diminish late becoming light and variable overnight tonight. Winds
pick up again Tuesday becoming southerly after sunrise.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Eckhoff