046
FXUS63 KIND 110407
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1107 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wind gusts between 30-35 mph on Tuesday.

- Flurries or scattered light snow showers possible on Tuesday.

- Significantly warmer Wednesday onward, with occasional rain
  Friday into early next week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 922 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Much quieter tonight than it was just 24 hours ago as Central Indiana
was getting their first accumulating snow of the season. Snow is
still on the ground for many areas, keeping temperatures a few
degrees below guidance for tonight. High pressure slides by to the
south over the next day switching winds form the northwest this
evening to the southwest by the morning. Despite elevated winds
through the overnight hours tonight, temperatures are still expected
to reach the lower to mid 20s by the morning. Record lows for
November 11th range from 11 to 21 degrees across Central Indiana...
would not be surprised for a few low lying spots with snow cover to
briefly dip below 20 early tomorrow morning. Whether or not a record
is broken it will still be quite cold for this time of year with
wind chill values as low as 10 degrees.

Mid and high level cloud cover pushes in during the morning hours
ahead of the next system approaching from the northwest. Low level
moisture return is fairly weak, but would not be surprised to see a
few flurries through the day. Expect another breezy day with wind
gusts over 30 mph once again during the afternoon hours. As the
frigid airmass retreats and winds become southwesterly, expect
temperatures to rebound into the upper 30s to mid 40s... allowing
the majority of the snow to melt.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Snow is ending across central Indiana as of 2pm. We`ve seen
amounts ranging from 1 to 2 inches on average with some pockets of
2 to 4 inches north of Indy. Skies are rapidly clearing behind
the departing system, and increased sunshine will help much of the
snow melt before sunset despite temperatures still near freezing.

Winds should diminish with time as well as weak surface ridging
advances from the west. Mostly clear skies and light (but not calm)
winds should promote decent radiative cooling potential tonight.
Another night with lows in the low 20s appears likely. A few pockets
of upper 10s are possible, especially in places where the snowpack
survives into the night.

Aloft, the large upper tough responsible for today`s snow will begin
departing eastward. Ridging begins in earnest with mid-level warm
air advection commencing. A weak vort max dropping southeastward
ahead of the ridge should lead to a period of cloudiness tomorrow.
Some of the high-resolution guidance hints are some flurries or
light snow showers at times. However, the primary effect this system
will have is gusty winds from the southwest. Low pressure passing
well to our north will allow the MSLP gradient to tighten
significantly resulting in winds between 15-25kt gusting to 30-35kt.

Strong southwesterly winds advecting in warmer air should bring
about a warmer day compared to today. Highs on Tuesday look to be in
the low to mid 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 254 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Ensemble guidance is in good agreement showing upper-level ridging
building throughout the remainder of the week. Continued warm air
advection is expected after a brief cold front on Wednesday.
Ensemble guidance differs regarding a warm front and how far north
it gets. This front, lifting northward beginning on Thursday, could
bring temperatures back into the 60s or near 70.

One key factor determining how far north the front reaches is a
large area of surface high pressure over southeastern Canada.
Scenarios with a stronger high hold the warm front back longer,
where scenarios with a weaker high allow the front to make more
progress northward. The GFS deterministic resides in the stronger
surface high camp with its ensemble trending in that direction as
well. In this scenario the warm front is slower or even stalls over
portions of our area leading to cooler temps or a large horizontal
temperature gradient across the area. The ECMWF tends to be weaker
and more transient with the high, thus is the solution with warmer
surface temps over most of central Indiana.

Regardless, a system passing to our north looks to kick the warm
front northeastward at some point during the weekend. We`ll likely
see an increase in surface winds around then with a cold front
following with colder air towards the beginning of next week. A
period of rain is possible as well, but a cut-off low to our
southwest may complicate things somewhat. Guidance differs with how
the cold front and cut-off low interact, which could lead to
substantially different rainfall amounts depending on how things
play out.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1107 PM EST Mon Nov 10 2025

Impacts:

- VFR Conditions are expected this TAF period.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. High pressure and
surface ridging moving across Indiana will keep skies clear
overnight. A passing upper level weather disturbance along with the
beginning of warm air advection will result some passing high mid
level clouds through the day on Tuesday. Forecast soundings show dry
air within the lower levels through the period.

Thus VFR will continue through the period with just some passing mid
clouds. A moderate pressure gradient across the area area will allow
for wind gusts to around 20 knts during the day on Tuesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...Eckhoff
LONG TERM...Eckhoff
AVIATION...Puma