817
FXUS63 KIND 140603
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
103 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warming trend continues with highs in the 60s on Friday and
  widespread highs in the low 70s on Saturday

- Low rain chances late Saturday through Saturday night

- Additional periodic chances for rain early next week as well as
  near normal temperatures

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 942 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Isentropic lift/warm advection aloft has generated a deck of mid
clouds across the northeastern two-thirds of central Indiana this
evening.

The lift and cloud deck will gradually move east and out of the
area into the overnight hours. Upped sky cover to account for this.
Lift and moisture aren`t really enough for any rain so left the
forecast dry.

The clouds have slowed and will continue to slow the temperature
fall, so adjusted hourly temperatures as needed based off of
observational trends. Enough clearing will occur to go along with
light winds to allow temperatures to get to forecast lows. Only made
a few tweaks to those lows.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 240 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Surface high pressure is promoting quiet weather across central
Indiana this afternoon with current satellite and surface
observations depicting mostly clear skies. Efficient diurnal mixing
aided by plentiful sunshine has helped RH values plummet to around
25-35%. Light winds due to a weak pressure gradient will largely
limit any fire weather concerns though.

Good radiational cooling conditions are expected tonight with mostly
clear skies and light winds. This will allow for temperatures to
cool quickly during the evening, but surface becoming southerly
should lead to warmer lows compared to last night. Look for lows to
range from the mid-upper 30s over the northeast half of central
Indiana to as warm as the low 40s across southwestern counties.

Models are in good agreement Friday depicting a warm front advancing
through Indiana. Expect increasing low clouds early in the day as
the boundary lifts northeastward. Generally quiet weather should
persist on Friday given weak forcing and marginal moisture. However,
forecast soundings depict slightly greater low-level saturation
across south-central Indiana which could support isolated light
showers or sprinkles through the early afternoon. Overall forcing is
very weak so QPF amounts will be very light at most. Expect
clouds to mix out later in the day. Despite enhanced clouds Friday
morning, warm air advection will help warm temperatures into the
60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Thursday)...
Issued at 240 PM EST Thu Nov 13 2025

Ensemble guidance is aligned on a ridge, multiple standard
deviations above normal, reaching the upper Mississippi Valley late
tomorrow. This will push eastward attached to strong WAA upstream
allowing for temperatures to push well above normal Friday night
through Saturday night. In fact, temperatures on Saturday could
exceed 70 across a majority of central Indiana. from mostly clear
skies on Thursday outside of some residual upper level cirrus on the
upstream edge of the ridge. This WAA will be within dry, continental
air, limiting moisture return prior to frontal passage late on
Saturday.

Dry WAA will work two-fold, increasing PBL depth and wind gust
potential and delaying any precipitation onset until Saturday night.
Current forecast is for peak gusts between 25-30mph, but there is
some potential for higher gusts as courser model guidance better
handle the low level pressure gradient.  Due to the lack of strong
moisture advection, any relevant moisture for showers in likely
going to have to rely on moisture convergence along the boundary.
This is expected to by greatest over NE portions of the area, but
isolated showers will be possible through central Indiana Saturday
night into Sunday morning.

Ensemble guidance continues to be divided for early next week with
split solutions on the strength of the trough over eastern Canada and
how this will interact with a developing shortwave. Most guidance
has some precipitation late Monday through Tuesday, but p-type and
amounts are still uncertain at this time. Either way, forcing within
this wave looks relatively weak, and temperatures look warm enough
to limit any hazards associated with the low passage. Behind this
second wave, a return to strong troughing out west should bring the
general return of SW/S flow and near to above seasonal temperatures
for the second half of next week.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 103 AM EST Fri Nov 14 2025

Impacts:

- SW winds above 7 kts this afternoon

Discussion:

VFR is expected through the period

From about 12Z through 18Z Friday, some lower clouds will
develop/move in as lower level moisture returns to the area. Most
guidance keeps ceilings lower VFR as seen in the TAF, but there is
at least a slight chance of ceilings dropping near 3kft at most
sites along or south of I-70 as well as chances for sprinkles.

For now will continue to hold ceilings at low VFR. Winds will be
light overnight then increase to around 10kt on Friday from the
southwest.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...KF