597
FXUS63 KIND 161739
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1239 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Elevated fire weather danger today with RH values of 15-25 percent
  and wind gusts to 25 mph

- Mostly dry the rest of the weekend with increasing rain chances
  Monday night into Tuesday

- Lower chances for rain midweek with chances increasing
  again Thursday into the weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1007 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

The main focus for today will be the enhanced fire risk this
afternoon due to increasing surface winds and plummeting humidity
values. Latest observations indicate gradient northwesterly winds of
around 15 mph are ongoing across Central Indiana this morning;
however local soundings indicate that low level mixing has not begun
yet. Soundings reveal a large, very dry layer 1/2Km above the
surface, so it won`t take deep mixing to tap into this layer,
resulting in increasing surface winds/gusts and dew points
plummeting from the low 20s to possibly the single digits within a
matter of hours. Current RH forecast for this afternoon is well
below most guidance already and will be updated accordingly through
the day. High temperatures have a chance to exceed guidance and
forecast highs due to such a dry airmass, ample sunshine, and
mixing. Keeping highs in the low to mid 50s for now as that is
already at the high end of guidance (NBM90th percentile), but will
watch temperature trends as they could end up a few degrees warmer.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Today.

Main focus today will be on the elevated fire weather danger with
northwesterly wind gusts up to 25 mph combining with minimum RH
values of 18-25 percent across central Indiana. In the aftermath of
the frontal passage Saturday evening much drier air continues to
work into central Indiana with dew points falling 8-12 degrees
within the first few hours of the frontal passage. This dry air
advection will become even more noticeable by daybreak when dew
points are expected to drop another 20 degrees marking an almost 35
degree drop compared to last evening.

Diurnal heating will allow for the boundary layer to deepen to
around 3500ft which will help to continue to mix down winds of 20-25
mph and further dry the near surface. The HRRR/WRF-ARW which
typically handle these well mixed days better are running 5-10
degrees lower on afternoon dew points compared to most other models,
so plan on blending that into the forecast. These near single digit
dew points combined with highs in the low to mid 50s will help to
drive the RH values below 20 percent.

With the hard freezes over the last few weeks, herbaceous fuels
such as grasses have fully cured and will be more susceptible to
these lower RH values which will create a favorable environment for
fire spread. Outdoor burning is strongly discouraged today unless
taking proper precautions. With all that in mind, will issue an SPS
highlighting the fire danger for today.

Tonight.

Wind gusts will taper down towards sunset with winds dropping down
to the 5-10 mph range tonight with clear skies. Dew points will also
recover through the night with values near 20 towards daybreak
Monday. Overnight lows will fall into the upper 20s to low 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 306 AM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

The long term will start off with mostly clear skies and near normal
temperatures with ridging overhead. A quick moving short wave and
warm frontal boundary are then expected to arrive, with clouds
increasing by Monday afternoon and rain chances arriving from the
west as early as Monday night. Uncertainty remains with the coverage
of rain associated with this short wave, particularly on Tuesday, as
some models are hinting at a dry slot potentially setting up over
the forecast area, between different features for the northern and
southern parts of the CWA that have higher rain chances.

Behind the wave upper ridging will again move through but a
lingering front boundary near the Ohio River Valley will keep low
PoPs nearby. Meanwhile more southern flow will warm temps
back into the 60s.

Chances for rain will persist for the end of the week into the
weekend as models suggest an active upper flow with a strong trough
over the plains, ejecting dynamics at Indiana on Thursday, before
the main, strong trough axis passes on Friday. The warm front will
surge north on Thursday as an associated area of surface low
pressure pushes northwest of Indiana. This will place Indiana within
the warm sector on Thursday night before the cold front passes on
Friday. All of this leads to continued rain chances. Thunder cannot
be ruled out on Friday. By Saturday, high pressure will try to build
across the area from the west, but progressive southwest flow will
still be in place aloft. Time changes of the previous passing
systems could impact this also.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1239 PM EST Sun Nov 16 2025

Impacts:

-Wind gusts up to 20kts through 23Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through he TAF period. Skies remain clear
with northwesterly wind gusts up to around 20 kts at all sites
through around 23z this evening. There could be a few gusts as high
as 25 kts but these should remain few and far between. Winds will
then become more westerly at 5-8kts overnight tonight. No vis or cig
concerns.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...KF
AVIATION...CM