702
FXUS63 KIND 070157
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
957 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Showers and t-storms possible this afternoon into tonight

- A few storms this afternoon and evening may contain heavy rain.
  An isolated severe storm cannot be ruled out.

- A Humid, very warm week is ahead. Chances for rain are
  in the forecast every day through Friday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Large convective complex over western portions of central Indiana
showing signs of slowly weakening owing to loss of daytime heating.
Gradual weakening of the low level flow and expansion of the cold
pool should also continue to help weaken mass convergence and
sustenance of the complex of convective updrafts.

Relatively strong upper level flow (50-60 kts at 200 mb) has carried
anvil material and light precip 60-80 miles downstream of this
convective complex with occasional anvil strikes. Although the bulk
of any measurable precip is over for the Indy Metro have carried
slight chances pops for the next several hours to account for this
regime.

Although weakening of convection is expected to continue in NW
portions of central Indiana, recent ACARS soundings show little to
no CINH remains over central Indiana. Therefore a rogue thunderstorm
or two will remain possible well into the overnight along remnant
outflow boundary/edges of the broad mesohigh in this portions of the
forecast area.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 222 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows high pressure in place over
Lake Superior and Ontario. High pressure was also found over east of
the Carolinas, providing southerly flow to Central Indiana. A
frontal boundary was found between these two systems, lying along a
IA...northern IL...MI line. Radar this afternoon shows rain that was
over Indiana had exited east. Water vapor shows an upper low over
TX. Ahead of this low a tropical plume of moisture with embedded
disturbances was found pushing into the TN and Mississippi Valleys.

Tonight...

Per the HRRR, and active CU growth across Central Indiana, diurnal
showers and thunderstorms are expected across northern parts of
Central Indiana late this afternoon persisting into the evening
hours. Warm and humid air along with ample CAPE across the state
will allow for TSRA development.

As heating is lost this evening, showers and storms should diminish
as the frontal boundary to the north continues to sag southward.
Thus will keep some rain chances in play this evening, especially
across the northern parts of the forecast area. Overnight low
temperatures will only fall to the upper 60s as high dew points are
in place across Central Indiana.

Sunday...

Better chances for rain will arrive on Sunday. An upper trough
within the flow aloft is expected to approach Indiana through the
day. Models suggest southwest flow and forcing dynamics ahead of
this system to push across Indiana. The previously mentioned surface
boundary will remain in place, adding a forcing feature available,
along with diurnal instability. Given the expected tropical flow
aloft, afternoon and evening shower and thunderstorm development is
expected. Forecast soundings trend toward saturation with pwats over
1.8 inches. Thus, heavy rain will be in play with some of the
showers and storms. Look for Highs in the middle 80s.

Monday...

The wet pattern is expected to continue on Monday as the upper wave
continued its approach toward and across Indiana The warm and humid
air mass will remain in place, keeping a favorable set-up in place
for showers and storms. Confidence remains high for precipitation as
these features are in play. Highs once again should reach the middle
80s.u

Tuesday through Friday Night...

Chances for rain will persist through much of the week ahead. An
upper trough will push across Indiana on Tuesday, and some weak
forcing dynamics will pass on Wednesday. Thereafter, upper ridging
is expected to be found east of Indiana, allowing southwest flow
aloft as a stronger trough approaches for Friday and Friday night.
Meanwhile through all this time, forecast soundings suggest steep
lapse rates and favorable CAPE each afternoon. The lower level flow
will predominately be warm and humid gulf flow as surface high
pressure will be stagnant east of the Carolinas. Thus best chances
for rain will be on Tuesday and again on Friday and Friday night
when the best forcing chances area expected to pass. Otherwise,
daily diurnal showers and storms cannot be ruled out. Given our
expected warm and humid gulf flow, warm and humid conditions will be
expected with highs in the upper 0s by late in the work week.

Saturday...

For the moment, dry and mild weather looks in store for Saturday.
The moderate passing wave and cold front on Friday Night will allow
surface high pressure over the northern plains build across Indiana,
allowing a cooler and less humid air mass to arrive across the area.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 737 PM EDT Sat Jun 6 2026

Impacts:

- Thunderstorm with potential for IFR vis near KLAF and KIND
  through 05Z

- Additional thunderstorm chances tomorrow afternoon at all terminals

Discussion:

Nearly stationary boundary draped across northern portions of
central Indiana will continue to be the focus for additional
thunderstorm development through 04-05Z period. Will carry
VCTS and PROB30 for both KIND/KLAF with enough uncertainty on the
location and coverage of these thunderstorms. Expecting the
potential for scattered showers to continue through much of the
remainder of the overnight as deep moisture convergence remains
anchored to the region. However with loss of daytime heating and
increasing subsidence aloft, expecting coverage to wane through
Sunday morning. Mostly VFR conditions are expected outside of any
convection with ceilings possibly going MVFR tomorrow morning at
KIND/KLAF for a few hours near sunrise.

Return to increasing instability with daytime heating and presence
of the nearly stationary boundary will aid in additional
thunderstorm development during the afternoon/evening hours. With
uncertainty in exact placement of this boundary will carry PROB30
for all 4 terminals during this period.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Crosbie
AVIATION...Crosbie
DISCUSSION...Puma