144
FXUS63 KIND 010157
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
957 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Heat Advisory in effect for all of central Indiana from Tuesday
  afternoon through Thursday evening

- Increasingly hot and humid conditions through the middle of this
  week. Peak heat index values up to 105 are possible each afternoon
  Tuesday through Thursday.

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible at times
  late this week through the weekend.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 956 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Weak convection continues to ride around the upper high, getting
perilously close to the forecast area. However, instability is
weakest in the northern forecast area, and the ridge looks to be
just strong enough to dissipate convection before it actually enters
the forecast area.

Thus, have kept PoPs just below mentionable thresholds across the
northern and northeastern border of the area. Will continue to
monitor closely and will add isolated shower mention if they do ever
actually reach the area.

Upped sky cover north as leftover clouds from the dying convection
along with high clouds from other convection moves into the area.

Lowered minimum temperatures a bit in some rural areas based on how
fast readings have fallen this evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 247 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Today through Thursday...

Dry weather conditions are expected through the middle of this week
due to upper ridging and surface high pressure in place. Current
satellite imagery depicts mid to high clouds pushing out of the
region as a subtle impulse aloft departs. Meanwhile, diurnal cumulus
has developed, mainly near or south of the I-70 corridor where
convective temperatures have been reached.

Upper ridging building further into the Ohio Valley over the next
few days along with persistent southwest surface flow will promote
increasingly hot and humid conditions. Look for highs well in the
90s for many locations with heat indices up to 105 possible each
afternoon from Tuesday through Thursday. Little relief from the heat
and humidity overnight will increase the threat for heat related
illnesses. A Heat Advisory is now in effect from 2 PM EDT Tuesday
through 8 PM EDT Thursday. Drink plenty of fluids, limit time
outdoors during peak heating, and check up on relatives and
neighbors.

Guidance depicts the aforementioned upper ridge retrograding and
then amplifying across the central CONUS towards late week while
troughing develops over the Northeast. This will allow subtle waves
aloft to begin moving through the region within developing northwest
flow. There is some slight uncertainty on Thursday regarding max
temperatures as the subtle wave approaches due to the potential for
some increase in clouds. Anomalous moisture in place along with weak
forcing may also support the potential for isolated convection, but
confidence remains too low to include POPs at this time.

Friday through Monday...

Confidence in exact details decreases during the second half of the
period due to diverging model solutions. Long range guidance
generally depicts the upper ridge across the central CONUS
continuing to amplify with persistent northwest flow across central
Indiana. Multiple shortwaves aloft could move through during this
period supporting the potential for isolated to scattered convection
at times. In addition, a cold front may slowly push south late
Friday through the weekend. This will provide additional forcing for
convection while also gradually cooling temperatures into Sunday.
Greater cloud cover and low rain chances should help keep
temperatures cooler as well. Look for highs mostly in the 80s by
Sunday into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 649 PM EDT Mon Aug 31 2026

Impacts:

- None expected

Discussion:

VFR conditions will continue through the period, with high clouds
from time to time. A few cumulus may pop up again on Tuesday.

Winds may gust around 15kt Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from 2 PM Tuesday to 8 PM EDT Thursday for INZ021-
028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072.

&&

$$

UPDATE...50
AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...Melo