395
FXUS63 KIND 272224
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
624 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain likely tomorrow towards Muncie, lower chances to the southwest

- Dry and quiet weather for the weekend into early next week

- Potential for another system mid-week with another shot of cooler
  afterwards

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Rest of Today and Tonight.

As of early this afternoon coverage of diurnal cu continues to
increase as surface temperatures are warming into the upper 60s to
low 70s with saturation at the top of the boundary layer. With the
surface high centered over the southwestern counties the winds at
the top of the boundary layer are much weaker than yesterday which
is keeping surface winds to the 4-8 mph range. Expect diurnal cu to
maximize towards 20Z with a gradual decrease afterwards and towards
sunset. A weak upper level wave aloft will advect additional mid and
high level clouds through the overnight hours tonight which will
help to insulate temperatures more than the last few mornings with
overnight lows only in the low to mid 50s.
Wednesday.

Thursday.

The most active day of weather for the period will be tomorrow
afternoon as another upper level wave pushes through the Great Lakes
region with portions of central Indiana on the southwestern
periphery of the better forcing aloft. Confidence continues to
increase in at least some precipitation from near Lafayette east and
portions to the north and east of Indianapolis with highest
confidence towards Muncie. There will be at least some instability
due to the steep lapse rates aloft but surface moisture will be
minimal and help to limit the higher-end CAPE values. There remains
some timing differences in the passage of the better forcing between
the different CAMs but the early afternoon currently looks to be the
most favorable time.

&&

.LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)...
Issued at 205 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Thursday Night Through Sunday.

Another surge of cooler air will move in behind the exiting upper
level trough with precipitation expected to be well out of the
forecast area by 00Z. This surge won`t be quite as potent as the
earlier weak cool air but expect most areas to fall into the low to
mid 50s with gradually clearing skies. Upper level northwesterly
flow and northerly surface flow will continue into the early weekend
with mostly clear skies and quiet weather. Little to no flow aloft
will keep a fairly persistent pattern even into early next week.

Monday Through Wednesday.

Surface flow will gradually become more easterly early next week as
a low pressure system forms across the Upper Plains and gradually
moves eastward. Confidence in the forecast lessens going towards the
middle of the week as models struggle to resolve how this weak
system interacts with a much stronger upper level trough moving
south out of Canada but it looks likely that at least by mid to late
week rain chances will begin to increase with another strong surge of
cold air behind the system helping to keep temperatures below normal.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 625 PM EDT Wed Aug 27 2025

Impacts:

- Low chance for rain/storms Thursday afternoon mainly at KIND and
  KLAF

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through much of the forecast period. Diurnal
cu will diminish this evening but an area of mid level clouds over
northern Illinois will drift into the region overnight followed by
additional clouds associated with convection ongoing over Minnesota.
The majority of the convection will remain northeast of the
terminals on Thursday but showers associated with a frontal boundary
will move across the northeast half of central Indiana. An isolated
rumble of thunder is not out of the question during the afternoon
but overall impacts to KIND and KLAF should be minimal.

Winds will be from the southwest at less than 10kts for the bulk of
the forecast period.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...Ryan