670
FXUS63 KIND 260153
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
953 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cloud cover gradually decreases through tonight with mostly clear
  skies for the weekend
- Dry conditions persist through Tuesday, with the next chance for
  rain arriving Wednesday into Thursday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 952 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Forecast is in good shape and only needed minimal adjustments to the
near term temperatures. Clouds are continuing to traverse
southeastward across the area while dry air near the surface is
preventing any light rain to reach the ground. Expecting overnight
lows from the mid 40s in the NE to mid 50s in the SW. There is a
chance of fog in the NE near the early morning hours where
temperatures will likely drop the most, potentially reaching the dew
point temps.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Friday)...
Issued at 128 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Overview.

High pressure will dominate central Indiana weather into early next
week, driving a trend toward clearer skies and warmer temperatures.
Low clouds will erode through Saturday morning, giving way to
abundant sunshine and daytime highs reaching the lower 80s by
Monday. A cold front will approach from the northwest late Tuesday,
bringing the next likelihood of showers and thunderstorms before
temperatures cool back toward seasonal averages late in the week.

Rest of Today Through Sunday.

Synoptically, central Indiana remains sandwiched between a strong
low pressure system off the East Coast and broad ridging across the
Great Lakes. This continues to keep surface and near surface flow
northeasterly across the area with high clouds from a system to the
northwest streaming in aloft. These high clouds along with CAA near
the surface will help to keep temperatures cool through the
remainder of the day with some signs that the northeastern counties,
which started cooler, may struggle to rise out of the low 60s.
Tonight, temporal differences in cloud clearing will dictate minimum
temperatures; areas in the northeast where clearing occurs earliest
will drop into the mid-to-upper 40s due to effective radiational
cooling, while western counties hold in the lower 50s. On Saturday,
lower cloud cover combined with weaker CAA should allow for warmer
temperatures with highs more towards the low to mid 70s.

The broader synoptic pattern remains fairly similar going into
Sunday with the aforementioned low pressure system along the East
Coast remaining largely locked in place while the ridging across the
Great Lakes and system to the west become less pronounced. Surface
flow will remain northerly to northeasterly but will be light, which
combined with another day of abundant sunshine will keep
temperatures in the low to mid 70s.

Monday Through Friday.

The extended period opens with weak upper-level ridge amplification
across the eastern CONUS as surface high pressure shifts toward the
Mid-Atlantic coast. Both deterministic GFS and ECMWF along with
their respective ensemble suites depict strong low-level warm air
advection developing across the Mississippi and Ohio Valleys as the
low off the East Coast finally begins to push off to the northeast.

Southerly flow early next week doesn`t look quite as robust as it
did in recent model runs which will keep highs more towards the mid
70s vs lower 80s. This begins to shift towards Wednesday as the
synoptic pattern begins to shift. Late Wednesday into Thursday a
progressive upper-level trough traverses the Northern Plains and
Great Lakes. Deterministic guidance indicates a surface cyclone
tracking northeast into the Upper Midwest, pulling a trailing cold
front toward central Indiana late Wednesday into Thursday which is
about 12-18 hours slower than previous model runs.

Strong synoptic-scale forcing via PVA and a developing 35-45 kt low-
level jet will foster moisture transport, elevating PWAT values
toward 1.50 inches. Ensemble consensus supports increasing PoPs
beginning late Wednesday for showers and scattered thunderstorms
along with a lower-end potential for a few strong to severe storms.
Post-frontal cold air advection behind the frontal passage will
break the warm trend, returning temperatures to near seasonal
normals in the upper 60s and lower 70s going into Friday.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 733 PM EDT Fri Sep 25 2026

Impacts:

- None.

Discussion:

Mid and high clouds will continue to stream into central Indiana
into the overnight hours, gradually becoming less diffuse going into
Saturday morning. There could be a few areas of low stratus/fog, but
those look to be northeast of the terminals. Winds will remain
northeasterly through the TAF period at 5-8kt this evening and
tomorrow and around 3-5kt tonight.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...White