545
FXUS63 KIND 030243
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
943 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with above normal temperatures through Friday

- Better chance for widespread rain on Friday

- Cooler for the weekend with chances for light precipitation

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 943 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

An area of stratocumulus continues to slowly dissipate as it drifts
east across portions of the area this evening. To the northwest,
some high and mid clouds were trying to move in but were eroding
some as they move southeast. Adjusted sky cover as needed.

Additional mid cloud will move in later tonight across the northwest
forecast area ahead of some weak lift in the mid levels. Winds will
remain up some ahead of an approaching surface front, especially
northwest. Nudged up low temperatures there because of those
factors.

In the far southwest, clear skies and lighter winds have
allowed temperatures to fall quickly there. Nudged down low
temperatures in that area.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 259 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows an elongated area of
high pressure stretching from the eastern Great Lakes across Indiana
to eastern TX. An upper level low pressure system was found over
Central TN, providing cyclonic flow far across southern
Indiana...near the Ohio River. Strong ridging was found aloft over
IA, WI and Michigan. GOES19 shows the earlier large cloud shield
over southeast Indiana associated with the upper level low pressure
area departing slowly to the southeast. Radar shows the rain showers
that were present earlier have dried up and exited.

Tonight and Monday...

Models shows the earlier mentioned upper ridging settling over
Indiana tonight as the upper low continues to exit to the east. At
the surface, the elongated area of high pressure will remain across
Central Indiana, resulting in subsidence through the night.

On Monday the surface high is suggested to become reorganized and
stronger, centered over the plains states and the lower Mississippi
valley. This is in response to a large and broad developing ridge
over the western United States that will place Indiana within an
area of northwest flow and subsidence. This surface high will
continue to dominate Indiana/s weather. Forecast soundings and time
heights through Monday show a dry column with continued subsidence.
Thus we will expect mostly clear skies tonight and on Monday.

Of note, a moderate pressure gradient across the are may result in
some wind gusts during the day to around 20 mph. Lows tonight will
fall to the middle and upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday night through Sunday)...
Issued at 259 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Fairly quite and mild weather expected for the first full week of
November across Central Indiana. The weather pattern is showing
signs of becoming active again going into next weekend with better
chances for precipitation and larger temperature swings.

Tuesday through Thursday...

Guidance is in good agreement showing a prevailing quasi-zonal and
progressive jet pattern midweek featuring a storm track mainly to
the north combined with little low-level moisture advection into the
state.

High pressure centered over the Mid Atlantic will be the main
weather influence Tuesday with southerly flow and warm air
advection. The low level jet ramps up throughout the day ahead of a
moisture starved cold front and associated low to the northwest.
Steep low level lapse rates on Tuesday may result in stronger wind
gusts mixing down to the surface during the afternoon hours. High
temperatures may be a few degrees warmer than what guidance suggest
in this type of pattern with deeper mixing. If clouds clear enough
early enough in the day, high temperatures may make a run for the
low to mid 60s.

Another warm and dry day expected on Wednesday as a weak area of low
pressure traverses the Great Lakes and brings a dry front through
the state. Colder air lags behind the front, so expect highs once
again in the 60s to potentially near 70 degrees with mainly sunny
skies. The only real effects from this front will be gusty winds
again Wednesday and then northerly flow Wednesday night bringing
cooler air back into the state with lows back into the 30s.

High pressure briefly becomes centered overhead Thursday morning
before shifting eastward through the day. The return of light
southerly winds and sunny skies should result in another above
average day with morning lows in the mid 30s to near 40 rebounding
into the low to mid 60s by the afternoon.

Friday into next weekend...

Guidance is hinting at a deeper trough taking shape over the western
US around midweek. Though deterministic guidance differs in the
details, they generally show lee cyclogenesis over the northern
Plains with an increasing low-level jet and northward mass response.
This would represent the first real push of Gulf moisture northward
in a while, resulting in increasing rain chances going into Friday.
This pattern supports continued above normal temperatures ahead of
the incoming system; however confidence is increasing in widespread
rainfall along the front the first half of the day.

Longer range models and ensembles depict the overall pattern
becoming more amplified into next weekend. Low confidence exists in
any one model solution this weekend, so take deterministic guidance
output with a decently large grain of salt. There is higher
likelihood in a pattern setting up that is supportive of larger day
to day temperature swings and more frequent chances for
precipitation as weak systems push in from the northwest.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 555 PM EST Sun Nov 2 2025

Impacts:

- Winds gusting to around 20kt on Monday.

Discussion:

VFR stratocumulus currently over most sites will drift east and
dissipate this evening. Otherwise, some mid level clouds will move
in from the northwest closer to 12Z and then persist into mid
morning Monday.

Generally southwest winds will continue through much of the period,
becoming more westerly late. Gusts will develop by mid-morning
Monday with gusts to around 20kt expected.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...50
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...CM
AVIATION...50