402
FXUS63 KIND 111923
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
223 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Significantly warmer Wednesday through the weekend

- Dry next few days with low rain chances towards late this
  weekend

- Slightly better chance for rain Monday into early Tuesday next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Wednesday)...
Issued at 221 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Current satellite and surface observations depict extensive cloud
cover across the region. These clouds are associated with moisture
streaming in aloft and weak forcing from an upper wave moving
through. Low-level dry air has limited any potential for
precipitation today and this will likely continue with forecast
soundings showing dry air remaining near the surface. Widespread mid-
high clouds are helping to reduce diurnal heating, but temperatures
have gradually warmed up thanks to strong southwesterly flow. The
strong MSLP gradient across central Indiana and daytime mixing into
a strong LLJ overhead is promoting strong wind gusts between 25-35
mph.

PBL stabilization this evening into tonight should allow for gusts
to diminish eventually. Gusts may not completely diminish until late
tonight though as breezy conditions will slow the PBL decoupling
process. Forecast soundings show increasing subsidence tonight into
Wednesday and a dry column supporting quiet weather. Model guidance
also depicts increasing heights aloft Wednesday once upper ridging
begins to depart and ridging centered near the Rockies shifts east.
This along with mostly clear skies will allow temperatures to warm
into the 50s for most of the area. Expect wind gusts around 20-30
mph to return during the day Wednesday once near surface lapse rates
steepen.

&&

.LONG TERM (Wednesday night through Tuesday)...
Issued at 221 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Wednesday night through Saturday...

Mostly quiet weather is expected through the first half of the
extended as upper ridging shifts eastward towards the region late
week. Increasing warm air advection and deeper moisture returning
north may support isolated showers at times. Weak forcing should
keep any rainfall amounts very light though. A significant warming
trend will be the primary focus with temperatures expected to reach
the low-mid 60s Friday and possibly low 70s over portions of central
Indiana by Saturday. Highs are normally in the mid 50s this time of
year.

Saturday night through Tuesday...

Rain chances become more widespread, but remain low late weekend as
guidance shows an upper trough and low pressure system pushing
through the region. Warm air advection ahead of an associated cold
front will keep temperatures above normal. Slightly deeper moisture
is also expected to advect northward. This along with forcing from
the system supports low precipitation chances across the entire
forecast area on Sunday. Cold air advection behind the departing
front should trend temperatures cooler late Sunday into Monday.

Precipitation chances remain elevated early next week as guidance
depicts another system quickly moving in. Diverging model solutions
leads to greater uncertainty regarding exact details. It does
appear this system may provide a better chance for rainfall though
as deeper moisture streams northward within persistent SW low-level
flow. Near seasonal temperatures are generally expected early next
week.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1240 PM EST Tue Nov 11 2025

Impacts:

- Winds gusting to 23-30 kts today

- Potential for LLWS tonight as wind gusts diminish and become more
  sporadic

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected through the period. A passing upper
level weather disturbance along with the beginning of warm air
advection will result some passing high mid level clouds through the
day. A moderate pressure gradient and strong LLJ across the area
will allow for wind gusts between 23-30 kts during the day today.
There is a threat for LLWS tonight from 00-07Z as the LLJ remains in
place and gusts become more sporadic. Wind gusts are expected to
diminish late tonight before returning on Wednesday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Melo
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Melo