


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
Issued by NWS Indianapolis, IN
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094 FXUS63 KIND 161321 AFDIND Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Indianapolis IN 921 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated strong to severe storms are possible mainly late today into the evening - Seasonably warm and quite humid much of the next week, with daily chances for showers and storms - Heavy rainfall and localized flooding are primary concerns && .FORECAST UPDATE... Issued at 918 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 No major changes needed to the forecast this morning, but have fine- tuned POPs through the early afternoon with current shower coverage minimal outside of the far eastern and southeastern counties. With temperatures in the mid 70s and dew points currently in the low 70s, instability is minimal with no good forcing or outflow boundaries nearby for additional initiation until later this afternoon and evening. Early signs from the 12Z guidance is showing little convection with the weak frontal passage this evening, so may have to tone down the POPs later today but will wait on the full guidance suite to determine the strength of the forcing. Both the SPC and WPC marginal risks look to be on the lower end of marginal with storm motions high enough to limit the higher end flooding risk and weak instability limiting the higher end damaging wind threat. Main timeframe for concern for the severe threat looks to be during the frontal passage late today into the evening if there ends up being any strong to severe storms. && .SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)... Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Through Much of Today... A series of upper impulses will move across central Indiana into the afternoon. There won`t be much of a surface feature over central Indiana, with perhaps a weak surface trough moving through this morning. Plentiful moisture will be in place with precipitable water values continuing around 2 inches. Thus feel that the combination of the aforementioned forcing and moisture will produce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the area into the afternoon. Coverage of convection looks to be highest across the eastern forecast area, which will have a chance to build up more instability by early afternoon. Shear will be weak, so feel odds of a severe storm are low during much of the today period. Heavy rain will be the primary threat, along with some gusty subsevere winds. Chances for rain will diminish west to east during the afternoon as forcing from the upper energy exits. Temperatures should still be able to reach the middle 80s to around 90 as coverage of convection diminishes this afternoon. The western forecast area will see the warmest temperatures given more sunshine is expected there. Late Today into Tonight... Thunderstorms will develop ahead of an approaching cold front west of the area later today. Some of these may move into central Indiana this evening. Increasing wind speeds aloft ahead of the system will increase the shear across central Indiana. The instability and shear will be enough for the potential of an isolated severe storm, mainly across the western forecast area. These initial storms should outrun the better forcing and then weaken as the evening progresses. However, as the cold front approaches overnight, additional convection may pop up. Will have slight chance to chance category PoPs during the night. Highest PoPs will be in the northwest closer to the better forcing. Lows tonight will be in the lower 70s. && .LONG TERM (Thursday through Tuesday)... Issued at 234 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 There is still a strong consensus on a typical, but moist mid summer pattern for central Indiana late this week through the weekend. This will likely entail daily chances for diurnally induces scattered precipitation along with highs in the mid to upper 80s and dew points in the low 70s. Synoptically, this is being created by strong ridging over the SE CONUS along with modest quasi- zonal flow over the Northern Plains and Upper Great Lakes regions. With that said, there is still going to be some slight fluctuations day to day due to a few low level features passing through Thursday and Friday. Per the 00Z ensemble suite, there is increasing confidence in a low level boundary slowly pushing eastward, of which could create a greater coverage of convection Thursday evening and night across southern portions of the State. There is some potential for isolated severe wind gusts, but confidence is not high. This also may allow for slightly cooler temperatures (mid 80s) and less storm coverage on Friday. Uncertainty increases some for the weekend, mainly due to cascading upstream mesoscale impacts that are not typically resolved well in the global models. One feature we are closely monitoring for the weekend, is the potential for weakening tropical remnants to push northward into the Ohio Valley. Latest trends are pushing the bulk of the forcing and moisture further south towards the Tennessee Valley, but there are still a contingent of ensemble solutions keeping the northern track. The track of these remnants will greatly impact moisture levels for central Indiana, and therefor confidence is predicated on how this evolves. Regardless, as stated previously, a consistent summer-like airmass should remain. && .AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)... Issued at 636 AM EDT Wed Jul 16 2025 Impacts: - Isolated to scattered showers and storms into this afternoon - A period of MVFR ceilings possible early in the period - Isolated convection after 00Z, mainly near KLAF Discussion: Isolated to scattered showers and storms will move through the sites into this afternoon, with most coverage at the eastern sites. Uncertainty on impacts at a site remains higher than desired, so will continue to mainly use PROB30s. Additional storms may move into KLAF late early this evening, but odds are too low to mention at this time. MVFR and worse conditions are possible in convection. Some MVFR ceilings may move in this morning, but these will mix out into a VFR cumulus field this afternoon. && .IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...White SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM...Updike AVIATION...50