301
FXUS63 KIND 120533
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
133 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather through Friday with highs predominantly in the 70s

- Rain chances return Saturday into early next week

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Today.

Quiet conditions are expected through the remainder of the overnight
and into today with no impactful weather outside of patchy fog
towards daybreak today. Winds have remained slightly elevated at 4-7
mph across central Indiana through the early overnight which lowers
confidence on the potential for fog, but as the surface continues to
saturate towards daybreak, expect to see at least some shallow field
fog and localized fog along streams. This fog will quickly erode
after daybreak as the dew point depressions begin to increase.

Expect to see another mild day today with mostly clear skies Sunday
and temperatures again rising into the low to mid 70s. Diurnal cu
coverage will be lower with models showing little to no saturation
at the top of the boundary layer. Highs will top out in the mid 70s
with light easterly winds of 4-7 mph through much of the day.

Tonight.

Another chilly night is expected for tonight with diurnally driven
cu dissipating towards sunset leaving clear skies and near calm
winds. Lows should drop into the mid 40s with a similar airmass in
place. Patchy fog will again be possible towards daybreak with
highest chances across the northern and northeastern portions of the
forecast area where some weak advection off Lake Michigan will bring
locally higher dew points.

&&

.LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Monday Through Tuesday.

Similar conditions are expected for Monday with temperatures again
rising into the low to mid 70s. Diurnal cu coverage will be lower
with models showing little to no saturation at the top of the
boundary layer. Overnight lows Monday night into will be a bit
higher than previous nights with most locations only falling into
the low 50s as slightly higher dew points gradually advect into the
area. A weak upper level low will move through Southern Canada
Monday into Tuesday with a cold front stretching southward, but
confidence is high that the front stalls and dissipates well to the
northwest of Indiana keeping rain chances to essentially zero.

Wednesday Through Saturday.

A weak shortwave moving northeast out of the Four Corners region
brings the best chance for precipitation this week as it moves into
the Midwest Wednesday into Thursday. This system will be moisture
starved, but there is a low-end potential that a few light showers
could be squeezed out over the northwestern portions of the forecast
area as it interacts with another southward diving Canadian low.
Chances for rain look to be 10-20 percent or less as this scenario
requires precise timing and forcing strong enough to squeeze out
what little moisture is available. Temperatures will remain
seasonable through the remainder of the week with highs in the low
to mid 70s and lows in the mid 40s to low 50s.

Looking into the weekend and beyond, forecast details remain
uncertain, but the pattern is likely to become more active.
Ensembles are showing a bi-modal solution with two major clusters
focused on a frontal system Saturday into early Sunday bringing
widespread precipitation with the secondary cluster keeping the
previous system locked up further into Canada and focusing
precipitation chances into early next week as a low undergoes
cyclogenesis as it exits the Four Corners region. Either way,
precipitation looks likely this weekend into early next week with
the main question being the specifics on timings and amounts.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

Impacts:

- Ground fog possible at all but KIND around 12Z

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of brief and
shallow fog towards 12Z. Confidence is highest at LAF, but chances
are high enough for a mention in the TAF for all but IND where
confidence is high in vsbys remaining VFR. Skies will remain mostly
clear today with only some passing cirrus as diurnal cu looks
unlikely. Winds will remain light and variable with a predominately
northeasterly direction becoming more easterly after 15Z.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...White
LONG TERM...White
AVIATION...White