514
FXUS63 KIND 302216
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
616 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and quiet weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend

- Below average temperatures to continue for much of the upcoming
week

- Next chance for rain arrives Tuesday and continues into early
Thursday followed by another round of cooler/drier air late week

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Surface analysis shows a fairly strong 1025 mb surface high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes with a broad ridge axis extending
southward into Appalachians. At the mid and upper levels broad N-NW
flow existed over the region on the backside of an upper low
centered over SE Quebec Canada.

Another cool and mostly clear night is in store for Central Indiana
with low temperatures around 10 degs below normal from the upper 40s
to low 50s. Forecast soundings show continued drying of the column
in the low to mid levels moving in from the east through the night
(PWAT 0.6-0.8 inches, in the lowest quartile of climo). Although
there will be some high clouds that move into the region from the
west. Also a few spots in Central Indiana may see brief reduction to
visibility late tonight, where winds and temperatures are expected
to be the lowest thanks to topographic/cold air drainage effects.
However no areas of fog are expected to develop.

Tomorrows skies will be mostly clear thanks to a drier airmass in
place (PWAT near 0.70 inch) under a continued mid level subsident
regime. In addition, the combination of a drier/deeper mixed
boundary layer and slightly stronger boundary layer winds will help
to produce more winds with gusts up to 15 mph during the afternoon
hours. Temperatures will again average around 5-8 degrees below
normal in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Cyclonic flow will dominate the eastern half of the country through
the period, producing continued below normal temperatures.

A modest closed low will spin to our east early in the week, as it
begins to weaken and gradually be absorbed into a much stronger and
larger closed low poised to drop into the region later in the week.
The forcing for ascent associated with this low will largely skirt
the area, keeping the early portion of the week dry, before some low
chances for showers and perhaps a storm sneak into the area as early
as Tuesday.

More substantial rain chances will come Wednesday into early
Thursday as a much stronger upper low drops into the region out of
the Canadian prairies, bringing with it a substantial cold front and
a reinforcing shot of cooler air for late in the week, which may see
highs fail to get out of the 60s on Thursday, and lows dropping well
into the 40s if not perhaps the upper 30s in spots.

The core of the coolest air with the upper low will only be briefly
in the region before retreating northward again, allowing some
moderation of temperatures to occur, though below normal
temperatures are likely to continue into next weekend and beyond.

Dry conditions will also return for the next weekend as surface high
pressure builds into the area post frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 616 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Impacts:

- VFR conditions through the forecast period

Discussion:

Surface ridging and broad E/NE flow keeping skies mostly clear early
this evening. Cirrus to the west may drift into the region
overnight but should be relatively thin. A few spots may see brief
visibility restrictions at KBMG during the predawn hours Sunday
where winds are expected to be near calm thanks to topographic
effects.

Slightly stronger boundary layer winds and deep boundary layer
mixing should support slightly strong winds from the E/NE tomorrow
afternoon. Deeper subsidence will largely mitigate any diurnal cu
formation as well.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Ryan