309
FXUS63 KIND 070557
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
157 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Pleasant and less humid over the next couple of days.

- Brief return of heat midweek with a chance of storms Wednesday
Night into Thursday.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 915 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Only notable adjustment to the forecast was to bring hourly
temperatures down slightly faster than what was previously expected
with the dry airmass allowing for efficient radiational cooling with
the clear skies and light winds.

There may be some fog across the northern half of the forecast area
towards daybreak along with some low stratus, but currently expect
coverage to be fairly minimal with the aforementioned dry
conditions. That being said, favored fog formation zones may
experience a brief period of locally dense fog.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 208 PM EDT Sun Sep 6 2026

Surface analysis this afternoon shows strong high pressure
stretching across the Great Lakes, Ontario to Quebec. This was
resulting in a dry and cooler flow of air to Central Indiana. GOES19
shows mainly clear skies across the area and the surface trough and
humidity had pushed farther south to Alabama/MS/GA. Water Vapor
continues to show strong ridging in place over the northern plains
with NW flow spilling SE to MI and Indiana. Water Vapor shows
subsidence in place over Indiana. Dew points across the area were
much more pleasant, in the upper 50s and lower 60s.

Tonight...

Little overall change will be expected tonight. The high pressure to
the NE will sag southward, maintaining control of our weather.
Forecast soundings and time heights continue to show a dry column.
Thus a clear night will be expected along with cooler low
temperatures in the upper 50s.

Monday through Tuesday...

Pleasant late summer weather is expected for the holiday and as many
folks return to work on Tuesday. Models shows the upper ridge axis
to the west slowly advancing eastward toward Indiana. This steers
any forcing dynamics well north of Central Indiana to Ontario,
keeping our area protected from any forcing. The surface high
pressure system to the northeast is expected to push to the eastern
Great Lakes on Monday, continuing the cool and dry easterly surface
flow to Indiana. On Tuesday, that high will sag southeast, reaching
the middle Atlantic states. This will continue to keep the dry
weather in place across Central Indiana, but southerly flow will
return, allowing for warmer highs in the upper 80s. Forecast
soundings each day show a dry column with a sufficient mid level
inversion to prevent CU development. Thus mostly sunny days and
mostly clear nights will be expected.

Wednesday through Sunday...

The upper pattern is much more progressive late this week and into
the weekend compared to what we have experience the past week. A
nearly steady Pacific, zonal flow is suggested to stream across the
northern CONUS. A few embedded waves look to pass, mainly on
Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by another wave on Saturday
into Sunday.

Best chances for rain will be on Wednesday Night in to Thursday as
surface cold front is suggested to accompany the upper forcing.
After high pressure passes through the area on Thursday Night
through Friday, more storm chances will arrive on Saturday and
Sunday as a less organized warm front arrives ahead of low pressure
developing over the plains. This will bring warmer high temperatures
to the area for next weekend. Overall, look for above normal
temperatures as the quick nearly zonal upper flow aloft keeps any
cool air intrusions at bay.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 156 AM EDT Mon Sep 7 2026

Impacts:

- Northeasterly gusts up to 20kts Monday

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected through the TAF period with mostly clear
skies other than passing thin cirrus. Northeasterly winds tonight
will generally remain between 4 and 10kts before strengthening in
the morning as the boundary layer begins to deepen. Peak gusts will
be around 20kts with winds dropping back closer to 5-10kts towards
sunset Monday.

Can`t completely rule out the chance for fog at the outlying
sites during the early morning hours, but confidence is not high
enough to include at this time.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
AVIATION...KF
DISCUSSION...Puma