499
FXUS63 KIND 311742
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
142 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Increasing clouds with near normal temperatures much of today.

- Showers with some thunderstorms return late this afternoon and
  tonight

- Rain chances will persist through the weekend. There is an excessive
  rainfall threat Friday night through Saturday for most of
  central Indiana.

- Warming trend likely for the first week of August

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

No major changes to the forecast but did update temps and winds to
better match current obs. Clouds are starting to move in from the
west as expected with an approaching system. Still expecting the
rain with this system to reach our western border around 4-5pm with
rain and thunderstorms sticking around for much of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...
Issued at 232 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows weak high pressure in
place over Indiana and Ohio...drifting slowly east. Low pressure was
found over SE NB, and a shield of clouds ahead of this low was seen
on GOES19 pushing toward Central Indiana. Aloft, water vapor imagery
showed a moderate trough over the northern plains states, while
ridging was found from the middle Mississippi Valley north to the
Central Great Lakes. Water vapor imagery showed plentiful mid and
upper moisture streaming north across Indiana under the ridge. Dew
points across Central Indiana were in the 60s.

Today...

The surface high pressure system and associated ridging aloft is
expected to slowly drift east through the day while the surface low
and associated upper trough to the west advance eastward also. The
cloud shield found over MO and IL is expected to arrive through the
day. Forecast soundings show a top down saturation occurring through
the day as these systems advance toward our area. Furthermore, CU
development is expected as convective temperatures are reached. Thus
increasing clouds are expected along with high temperatures near
persistence.

HRRR shows the arrival of scattered showers with embedded
thunderstorms arriving in western Central Indiana late this
afternoon and early this evening. THus will begin to add some pops
to the western parts of the forecast area late this afternoon.

Tonight through Sunday...

Periodic rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected
tonight through much of the weekend. Models depict the moderate
trough to the northwest evolving into an upper low arriving across
Central Indiana and eventually being cut-off from the flow aloft on
Saturday and Sunday, stalling over Indiana. This will keep cyclonic
flow in place across Indiana on Saturday and Sunday, with plentiful
moisture and moderate forcing.  Forecast soundings through Sunday
show a mostly saturated column with this forcing in place, along
with pwats over 1.8 inches. Instability looks conditional and a few
embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Given the expected
showery nature of the precipitation spinning around the upper low,
showers and and storms look to be sporadic during the weekend rather
than just a constant rain. Overall though, confidence is high for
rain through the weekend and heavy rains cannot be ruled out given
the conditional convection and high pwats. Look for cooler highs in
mid to upper 70s on Saturday and Sunday, with lows in the upper 60s.

Monday through Thursday....

Rain chances will continue to persist on Monday in to Tuesday as the
departing upper trough over KY, cut off from strong surface flow
aloft, will continue to linger in our vicinity. Models suggest
continued wrap around moisture and cyclonic lower level flow that
will impact southeast parts of Central Indiana. Meanwhile stronger
surface high pressure will be moving across the Great Lakes along
with ridging aloft. This will allow for better chances for dry and
cooler weather across northeastern Central Indiana, amid cool
northeasterly flow. This should result in at or below normal
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

Better chances for dry and warmer weather will return on Wednesday
and Thursday as the upper flow looks to become a stronger across the
northern CONUS, helping to push the lingering upper trough east.
broad surface high pressure looks to be in place beneath this flow
aloft and gulf flow appears limited. Air mass modification should
allow high to at or above seasonal normals here.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 141 PM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

Impacts:

- Mainly VFR today. MVFR Vis and Cigs possible after 09-11Z Saturday

- Widespread showers expected after 07Z Saturday and persisting
  through the day, scattered thunderstorms possible

Discussion:

VFR conditions expected today, but deterioration toward MVFR is
expected overnight. A Low pressure system will approach Indiana
later today into tonight. This will result in increasing clouds and
rain chances overnight. Look for MVFR conditions to develop late
tonight towards daybreak Saturday. IFR conditions cannot be ruled
out Saturday morning. Widespread showers are expected to develop
after 07-08Z Sat and potentially persist through the remainder of
the period along with scattered storms.

More limited coverage of showers or storms appears possible at some
point during the day Saturday with brief improvement to low end VFR,
but uncertainty regarding this scenario remains high. Southerly
winds will become southeasterly this evening into tonight.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Puma