617
FXUS63 KIND 031052
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
552 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably cool and dry this weekend

- Temperatures warming next week to well above normal

- Rain chances return late week with the potential for a stronger
  system Thursday into Friday

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 219 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

A couple of upper waves will keep skies partly to mostly cloudy
through tonight. No precipitation is expected though.

Skies were cloudy across central Indiana early this morning, with
clouds extending well upstream. These clouds are mainly mid and high
level. Regional radar is showing some echoes from the mid level
clouds, but no precipitation is occurring thanks to weak forcing and
very dry low levels.

Forcing will be split to the north and south of the area as the
upper waves move through today, and a stronger upper jet will
be well north of the area. The low levels will remain dry with
continued northerly flow thanks to surface high pressure. Thus
expect continued mid and high clouds with dry conditions into early
afternoon.

As the waves move east of the area this afternoon, some decrease in
clouds will occur. Cold advection tonight behind the waves may
generate some clouds. Will keep skies partly cloudy into the
evening. Cold advection will weaken overnight allowing clouds to
diminish.

Thanks to the clouds today, temperatures will peak from around 30
north to the middle and upper 30s south. Clearing skies overnight
will allow readings to fall into the teens north and lower 20s south.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 219 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

The long term forecast remains rather similar with the beginning
of the period starting within modest NW flow and the influence of
broad low level high pressure. Aloft, strong flow within
high and upper level moisture should lead to increasing mid to
high cloud cover throughout Sunday. As a result, the diurnal curve
will dampen some, but within weak low level flow temperatures are
expected to remain seasonal on Sunday.

Late Sunday through Monday, the west CONUS ridge will start to break
down as a mid level vort max introduces height falls across the
Plains eventually leading to quasi-zonal flow. In return, broad
pressure depletion over the Plains will shift the mean flow to the
SW, of which will lead to a surge of WAA across the Ohio Valley. The
current expectation is for this to push Monday`s high temperatures
into the upper 40s to low 50s. Models have been trending weaker with
the cyclogenetic forcing in this initial wave, reducing the WAA
some, but it still looks likely that a good portion of central
Indiana will trend towards the upper end of the previously
mentioned temperature spectrum on Monday. The greater overall
pressure gradient over the Ohio Valley Monday will also lead to
breezy conditions, with winds sustained around 8-12mph and gusts
to 20mph.

As mentioned, the diffluence upstream of the quasi-zonal flow will
lead to broad pressure depletion, this should result in a weak low
center across the Great Lakes region Tuesday through Tuesday night.
Latest ensemble output continues the downward trend in any QPF
across central Indiana, with all rain expected to remain north of
the area. Still, with southerly flow remaining, above seasonal
temperatures will remain for Tuesday.

A more substantial weather system is expected to develop late next
week attached to a deep trough ejecting eastward into the Plains.
There is still a very wide variety in potential solutions with this
second low, but a majority of the ensemble members are hinting as
wave passage Thursday through Saturday with a variety of
magnitudes depending on how the forcing aligns upstream of the
upper level trough. If forcing is displaced, there will likely be
more of a succession of weaker lows in warm SW flow, providing
multiple periods of lower QPF rainfall. On the contrary, if a more
consolidated development occurs, a tighter, wrapped up low would
likely pass through the Midwest with a larger swath of QPF.

As such, confidence in details such as precipitation amounts and
timing remain low. Confidence is greatest regarding above-average
temperatures, since most scenarios result in warm air lifting
northward readily. Additionally, the majority of guidance shows the
most likely storm track/tracks to our northwest.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 551 AM EST Sat Jan 3 2026

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

Mainly mid and high clouds are expected into this afternoon, when
some partial clearing will occur. Ceilings may dip to around BKN080
at times.

Winds will generally be NE at less than 10KT through early
afternoon, then they will back to northwest.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...Updike
AVIATION...50