080
FXUS63 KIND 040240
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
940 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry weather with above normal temperatures through Friday

- Better chance for widespread rain on Friday

- Cooler for the weekend with chances for light precipitation late
  Saturday into early Sunday

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 940 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Current satellite, radar, and surface observations depict quiet
conditions across central Indiana. This is due to surface high
pressure still centered near the area which will continue to provide
tranquil weather tonight. Efficient radiational cooling from light
winds and clear skies has helped temperatures drop quickly during
the evening. Temperatures already in the mid 40s to even upper 30s
in some spots. Look for further cooling with lows generally in the
low-mid 30s. Some locations could fall into the upper 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 321 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Surface analysis early this afternoon shows high pressure centered
over NB/IA, building eastward. This combined with low pressure north
of the Great Lakes was resulting in a westerly flow across Central
Indiana with a moderate pressure gradient. This was causing gusty
winds to around 20-25 mph. GOES19 shows clear skies across Indiana,
and this mornings shortwave clouds has exited to the east.
Aloft, broad ridging was developing over the western United States,
while a trough was found over Hudson Bay and Ontario. This was
resulting in NW flow across central Indiana. Water vapor imagery
shows subsidence in place in the wake of the trough over MI/IN and
OH.

Tonight...

Models show continued lee side subsidence tonight as weak ridging in
place over the high plains begins to flatten somewhat. This will
allow the large high pressure system west of Indiana to continue to
build east across Indiana through the night. This along with the loss
of daytime heating will result in a weaker pressure gradient,
putting an end to the wind gusts. Late tonight, a weak short wave
within the flow aloft will quickly push across central Indiana. This
may result in a few high clouds late tonight and early on Tuesday.
Forecast soundings are on board showing a dry column for much of the
night with high saturation arriving late tonight. Overall, it sums
up to a mostly clear night with skies becoming partly cloudy toward
daybreak.  A good radiational cooling set up should allow for
temperatures to fall to the lower to middle 30s. A few lows in the
20s is not out of the question.

Tuesday...

Another mostly sunny and seasonable weather day is in store for
Central Indiana on Tuesday. Through the morning hours, the surface
high will depart eastward, allowing a warmer and southerly flow of
air to arrive.  Low pressure is also expected to develop in the
plains state, leading to an increasing pressure gradient late in the
day. This once again could result in some gusty winds by late
afternoon, particularly across the western parts of the forecast
area. Otherwise, with the morning shortwave departing and forecast
soundings showing a dry column...skies should remain mostly sunny
through the day. The southerly flow should allow for slightly warmer
high temperatures in the middle 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night through Monday)...
Issued at 321 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Overall expectation is for a cooling trend during the long
term period, particularly late in the weekend into early next week,
though model spread beyond day 5/Friday or so becomes fairly
substantial, and thus forecast confidence is lower.

Fast quasizonal flow will be in place much of the week across the
CONUS, particularly the northern tier, with a weak upper level
disturbance passing through the Great Lakes on Wednesday, followed
by a stronger surface low on Friday connected to a large upper low
over Hudson Bay.

The first disturbance should pass relatively uneventfully, with low
level dry air preventing any precipitation, though the pressure
gradient will likely produce some afternoon wind gusts as high as 25-
30 MPH over portions of the area on Wednesday.

Better moisture transport with the second, stronger low on Friday
will likely produce some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder or
two, in addition to another somewhat breezy day as the cold front
passes.

Significant amplification of the larger scale pattern appears likely
late in the weekend into early next week as upper ridging builds
over the western CONUS and the aforementioned upper low pivots
southward into the Great Lakes/northeastern CONUS, though guidance
differs significantly on longitudinal position of the upper low and
thus the intensity and duration of the cold intrusion into the
region, which looks to bring the coolest air of the season thus far
into central Indiana.

Temperatures will fluctuate a bit each day through Saturday, with
Wednesday likely the warmest day, with 70 degree readings
potentially pushing back into the area. Broadly, expect highs in the
50s and 60s and lows in the 30s and 40s, until the secondary cold
push late in the weekend brings highs down into the 40s and lows
down into the 20s.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 621 PM EST Mon Nov 3 2025

Impacts:

- None

Discussion:

High pressure will promote VFR conditions through the period. Some
high clouds are possible late tonight into Tuesday, but all of
that will remain high VFR. Expect light or potentially even calm
winds tonight. These winds then pick up on Tuesday and back from
westerly to southerly.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Melo
SHORT TERM...Puma
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Melo