578
FXUS63 KIND 310342
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1142 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and quiet weather for the remainder of the holiday weekend

- Below average temperatures to continue for much of the upcoming
week

- Next chance for rain arrives Tuesday and continues into early
Thursday followed by another round of cooler/drier air late week

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 927 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Another very pleasant evening in progress as the region remains
under the influence of a surface ridge. Other than some thin cirrus
drifting across the Ohio Valley...skies were mainly clear. 01Z
temperatures ranged largely from the upper 50s to the mid 60s.

Quiet weather continues overnight with high pressure in control.
Could see some thin cirrus continue but expect an overall
diminishing of high clouds overnight as the upper trough sharpens to
our east and deeper subsidence advects into the region on light E/NE
flow. May see isolated fog in the favored locales but airmass will
be dry enough to mitigate most fog through daybreak Sunday. Lows
will fall into the 50s with upper 40s possible northeast.

Zone and grid updates out.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Sunday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Surface analysis shows a fairly strong 1025 mb surface high pressure
centered over the Great Lakes with a broad ridge axis extending
southward into Appalachians. At the mid and upper levels broad N-NW
flow existed over the region on the backside of an upper low
centered over SE Quebec Canada.

Another cool and mostly clear night is in store for Central Indiana
with low temperatures around 10 degs below normal from the upper 40s
to low 50s. Forecast soundings show continued drying of the column
in the low to mid levels moving in from the east through the night
(PWAT 0.6-0.8 inches, in the lowest quartile of climo). Although
there will be some high clouds that move into the region from the
west. Also a few spots in Central Indiana may see brief reduction to
visibility late tonight, where winds and temperatures are expected
to be the lowest thanks to topographic/cold air drainage effects.
However no areas of fog are expected to develop.

Tomorrows skies will be mostly clear thanks to a drier airmass in
place (PWAT near 0.70 inch) under a continued mid level subsident
regime. In addition, the combination of a drier/deeper mixed
boundary layer and slightly stronger boundary layer winds will help
to produce more winds with gusts up to 15 mph during the afternoon
hours. Temperatures will again average around 5-8 degrees below
normal in the mid/upper 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday night through Saturday)...
Issued at 316 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Cyclonic flow will dominate the eastern half of the country through
the period, producing continued below normal temperatures.

A modest closed low will spin to our east early in the week, as it
begins to weaken and gradually be absorbed into a much stronger and
larger closed low poised to drop into the region later in the week.
The forcing for ascent associated with this low will largely skirt
the area, keeping the early portion of the week dry, before some low
chances for showers and perhaps a storm sneak into the area as early
as Tuesday.

More substantial rain chances will come Wednesday into early
Thursday as a much stronger upper low drops into the region out of
the Canadian prairies, bringing with it a substantial cold front and
a reinforcing shot of cooler air for late in the week, which may see
highs fail to get out of the 60s on Thursday, and lows dropping well
into the 40s if not perhaps the upper 30s in spots.

The core of the coolest air with the upper low will only be briefly
in the region before retreating northward again, allowing some
moderation of temperatures to occur, though below normal
temperatures are likely to continue into next weekend and beyond.

Dry conditions will also return for the next weekend as surface high
pressure builds into the area post frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1142 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Impacts:

- VFR conditions through the forecast period

Discussion:

No significant changes to the ongoing forecast.

Strong high pressure at the surface in combination with strong
ridging aloft will continue to provide subsidence and dry weather
across Central Indiana through the TAF Period. Forecast soundings
show a dry column through the period, thus unlimited Cigs are
expected with only the occasional passing high CI cloud or high CU.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Crosbie
LONG TERM...Melo
AVIATION...Puma