218
FXUS63 KIND 290651
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
251 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Patchy fog possible this morning

- Warm and dry through mid week with temperatures well above normal

- Rain chances return late week into the early weekend

- Dry and substantially cooler weather expected next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Monday)...
Issued at 251 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2026

Dry and warm weather will remain the rule across central Indiana
through mid week, as a surface and upper level ridge gradually push
eastward. Our next chances for precipitation will come late this
week into the weekend, courtesy of a slow-moving frontal system,
after which a substantial change to far more fall-like conditions
appears likely.

Clear skies and light winds under the surface high this morning
should produce at least some patchy fog across the area,
particularly just prior to daybreak. Isolated spots of dense fog
will be possible, mainly north. This fog will mix out in typical
diurnal fashion after sunrise.

Dry and warm conditions will continue through at least early
Thursday as a slow moving upper level low gradually absorbs the
remnants of Hurricane Polo and pushes eastward into the central
CONUS. The frontal boundary between this system and another large
upper low well to our northeast over the eastern Canadian provinces
will be held up both by this slow eastward progression and the
influence of the upper ridge over the Gulf Coast, but will
eventually sag into the area Thursday night into Friday, which is
when rain chances will be highest. Blend keeps low PoPs in the area
into Sunday, though given the latest model data this appears to be
far too long, and suspect that we`ll see this window shrink as the
week wears on.

A rumble of thunder or two cannot be ruled out at times, though for
the most part, just showers will be expected, though locally heavy
downpours will be at least a modest concern given precipitable water
values near climatological maximum thanks in part to the presence of
tropical moisture from the Polo remnants. Recent drier conditions
across central Indiana will help to limit hydrologic concerns,
however.

In the wake of the front, two areas of strong Canadian high pressure
will drop into the region, bringing substantially cooler air and a
return to dry conditions for much of the first full week of October,
with max temperatures down as much as 15-20 degrees and min
temperatures down a solid 10-15 degrees, a bit below seasonal
normals and far more fall-like than conditions experienced through
the first third of the Autumn season.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1149 PM EDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Impacts:

- Fog possibly generating IFR vis at LAF between 08-12Z with MVFR
  vis possible at BMG/HUF

Discussion:

Predominately VFR conditions are expected through the period. Patchy
fog may develop near the outlying TAF sites between 08-12Z,
especially at LAF. MVFR visibilities are possible briefly at BMG/HUF
while tempo IFR vis are possible at KLAF. Any fog that develops will
quickly mix out after sunrise. Winds will remain light and veer into
the afternoon hours as high pressure shifts to the east of central
Indiana.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...Nield