351
FXUS63 KIND 141349
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
949 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Not quite as warm today, but warm/marginally hot conditions
  return Tuesday

- Humid this week with daily chances of showers/t-storms Tuesday and
  onward...isolated downpours/localized flooding possible

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 949 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Morning fog and stratus are mixing out this morning, which will
leave partly cloudy skies for the afternoon. A lingering boundary
along our southern border is likely to serve as focus for
development of a few showers/storms this afternoon, but coverage and
intensity will be limited with little large scale forcing for ascent
along with minimal shear and modest instability.

Afternoon highs will be seasonable in the mid to upper 80s, with
continued humid conditions pushing afternoon heat indices as high as
the mid 90s in spots.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Early This Morning...

Upper energy moving through an upper trough overhead continues to
generate some scattered showers across mainly southern portions of
central Indiana. To the north and west of this area, stratus and fog
were developing as the lower atmosphere remains quite moist.

The showers will gradually continue to push east early this morning
as the forcing from the upper energy moves east. Will continue with
some PoPs south and east to account for these. Meanwhile, fog should
continue to develop across the forecast area with the moist
atmosphere.

Fewer overall clouds will allow dense fog to spread across the
northwest forecast area, so will continue with the Dense Fog
Advisory. Will continue to monitor for the need for any changes to
it.

Today...

Dense fog will mix out early today, and the stratus will gradually
mix out during the morning. A cumulus field will pop up this morning
and continue this afternoon. Will keep skies no better than partly
cloudy.

Some subsidence will move in behind the upper trough today, and this
should help keep much of the northern forecast area dry. The old
surface boundary across southern Indiana could still be enough to
spark some scattered showers and storms. Will keep some low PoPs
across mainly southern areas today. Lack of shear will keep any
storms below severe levels.

Clouds should break up fast enough today for enough heating to reach
highs in the middle and upper 80s across the area.

Tonight...

Looks like any showers or storms should be gone by the start of the
tonight period (or coverage will be too low to mention by then).
Much of the night will then be quiet with no forcing around.

Late tonight, 850mb winds turn southerly, and this may produce
enough lift for some isolated showers across the extreme southern
forecast area.

Lows tonight will be in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 304 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Much of the same mid-summer humid and very warm/hot conditions can
be expected through the rest of the week.  Although the synoptic
pattern just north of Indiana will be trending more active...with a
stronger zonal gradient amid a 700-mile deep band spanning the
Canadian border.  While there had been a signal for a portion of the
cooler weather under these lower heights to plunge into the Midwest
late this week...the last several model runs are now conceding
perhaps a weaker cool front would only drag it`s marginally milder
conditions into the Midwest while more noticeable humidity relief
stays well to our north across the Great Lakes.

Meanwhile surface low pressure will likely take residence, off the
southern edge of any northern/cooler weather, over the west-central
Plains.  Extending eastward, the quasi-stationary cool front can be
expected to meander slightly north/south over the Midwest...as
embedded short waves track across the far northern CONUS.  The
western Plains trough will work with the broad upper subtropical
ridge parked over southeastern North America...to maintain a
generally southwesterly flow of Gulf moisture into Indiana.
Dewpoints in the low to mid 70s and precipitable water values
varying around 1.75-2.30 inches will be the rule.  This ample deep
moisture will combine with lift from the meandering boundary and
perhaps the southern reaches of passing vort maxs...to promote
scattered to even numerous, diurnally-enhanced, convective showers
and thunderstorms.  Any severe potential will be dependent on wind
shear, which so far does not appear will be noteworthy through most
of the week.

Low confidence in the extent and details surrounding what should be
a more organized, southerly progression of the cool front towards
the end of the period.  Higher certainty in overall minor
improvements to the very warm/very humid conditions...yet convection
may be stronger if better shear accompanies any brief transition.
Perhaps two periods of light northwesterly flow around the late
workweek/early weekend should get humidity to drop to only moderate
levels, and maybe give most of the CWA a single morning below 70F.
Otherwise the dog days can be expected to overall continue, with
greater oppressive humidity...with afternoon maximums more likely in
only the mid to upper 80s, with perhaps only a single mid-week day
exhibiting widespread highs near-90.  Heat indices will generally
peak near the mid to upper 90s...with low-100s levels possible for
some zones around the Thursday timeframe.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 658 AM EDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Impacts:

- Mainly LIFR to MVFR through about 13Z in stratus/FG
- MVFR CIGs lingering at KLAF/KHUF/KBMG this morning
- VCSH near/south of KBMG this afternoon

Discussion:

LIFR/IFR will prevail amid stratus and BR/FG at most terminals early
this morning...although KIND should maintain MVFR conditions. Fog
and IFR stratus is expected to mix out around 13Z...ahead of a
scattered to broken cumulus field this afternoon.  Mainly dry
conditions will include VCSH near and south of KBMG this afternoon.
Overall light winds will exhibit a variable direction at times this
afternoon as the southern edge of very weak high pressure nudges
into central Indiana.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Nield
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...AGM
AVIATION...AGM