942
FXUS63 KIND 032335
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
635 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain arrives overnight and continues into Wednesday

- A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late
  this week through early next week

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Tuesday)...
Issued at 158 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Rest of This Afternoon through Wednesday...

Warm and breezy conditions will continue for the rest of the
afternoon ahead of an approaching system.

This evening will be quiet for most areas. Overnight into Wednesday
morning, a good (around 50kt) 850mb jet will aid in transporting
moisture into the area. Forcing from an upper wave rotating around
an upper low will work with this moisture to produce widespread rain
across central Indiana.

The wind field above the surface will be strong, but instability
will be quite weak. Not expecting any severe weather, but some gusty
showers or an isolated gusty storm will be possible.

After the main area of rain exits Monday, there looks to be enough
forcing and moisture for a narrow line of convection to develop
along a surface cold front as it moves through during the afternoon.
Instability is quite poor, so not expecting any strong convection
and likely not any thunder.

Rainfall amounts may reach around an inch in portions of the
southeast, with less than a quarter of an inch expected northwest.

Lows tonight will only be in the lower 60s thanks to southerly flow
ahead of the cold front. With the cold front moving through on
Wednesday, highs will generally be in the upper 60s, with around 70
possible east if rain exits fast enough. Lows Wednesday night will
be in the 40s.

Thursday and Friday...

Thursday looks quiet ahead of an approaching upper trough and
surface cold front. The trough and cold front will move through
Thursday night into Friday. Moisture will be limited with the Gulf
cut off. Will have some mainly slight chance PoPs on Friday, with
the most coverage expected during the first half of the day.

Highs on Thursday will be in the lower to middle 60s, but Friday
will see mainly upper 50s for highs as cooler air moves in behind
the front.

Saturday onward...

Northwest flow will continue Saturday into early next week. An upper
low moving through southeast Canada will bring another cold front on
Sunday. Similar to Friday though, moisture will be very limited with
the Gulf cut off again. Will go with a dry forecast through the
entire period.

The cold front won`t have much cold air behind it. Highs in the
middle 50s on Saturday will gradually moderate to the lower and
middle 60s by Tuesday. Lows will be near freezing for parts of the
area Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.AVIATION (00Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 635 PM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Impacts:

- LLWS from the south around 40kt tonight

- Surface wind gusts up to 25kt overnight

- Widespread showers expected late tonight into Wednesday morning

- MVFR ceilings developing after 06Z

 Discussion:

Skies remain SCT to BKN with ceilings around 5000ft. Satellite
imagery shows a frontal system with thick cloud cover over Illinois
southward into Missouri. This system arrives after 03z tonight with
thickening cloud cover and rain by 06z-08z. Ceilings are expected to
lower into MVFR territory as rainfall expands in coverage overnight.

Additionally, a low-level jet around 40-50kt may lead to wind shear
around 40kt tonight. A LLWS group has been added to the TAFs to
account for this. Surface winds have dropped to around 10kt out of
the southeast. Wind speeds/gusts should pick up once rain showers
arrive allowing for some of the low-level jet momentum to transfer
downwards.

A cold front arrives Wednesday afternoon causing winds to become
west-southwesterly. Gusts up to around 20kt remain possible behind
the front with near-MVFR ceilings.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Eckhoff
DISCUSSION...50