929
FXUS63 KIND 020532
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
132 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Widespread rain expected tonight into Friday morning, with amounts
  of one half to one inch

- Dry and much cooler weather expected over the weekend into next
  week; potential for first lows to drop into the 30s across portions
  of central Indiana Tuesday morning

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1012 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

End of summer cold front to cross central Indiana tonight, bringing
increasing POPs from NW to SE...as an area of numerous rain showers
cross the region, with residence times of 4-6 hours for most
locations, passing the Indy Metro through pre-dawn.  So far this
evening scattered showers have only reached the Upper Wabash Valley,
but with adequate northerly flow behind approaching boundary...
expect fropa to reach the US-50 corridor by dawn Friday...with at
least a few hours of anafrontal RWs through the overnight for most
areas.

Cannot rule out isolated non-severe thunder which may promote
moderate to briefly heavy rain rates, although overall trend is now
suggesting lower rainfall totals closer to 0.50 inches through 12Z,
and greatest amounts northwest of a Crawfordsville-Kokomo line.
Ceilings will plummet behind the cold front with low stratus the
rule for the CWA by daybreak.  Limited CAA by early Friday will only
allow readings to drop to 60F in Warren County and to 67F south of
US-50.

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Thursday)...
Issued at 306 PM EDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Last day of warmth, at least for a while, before below to near
normal temperatures return behind a cold front passing through
central Indiana. The front will slowly sag southeastward through the
area starting late this evening lasting through midday tomorrow.

Rain will be associated with the front and while instability will be
limited, can`t rule out a few rumbles of thunder. Precipitable water
values may approach 2 inches at their peak, which is near
climatological maximum for the time of year, but without a more
substantial convective component or stronger forcing, expect QPF
amounts to be limited to a widespread one half to one inch through
the event.

Cooler and drier air will settle in behind the front leaving the
remainder of the forecast period to have dry and pleasant fall
conditions for the start of October. Highs this weekend into at
least mid next week will be in the 60s to 70s while lows are
expected to be in the 40s to 50s. There is a chance Monday night
that the first appearance of frost could arrive, mainly in our N/NE
as lows could drop into the upper 30s.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 132 AM EDT Fri Oct 2 2026

Impacts:

- Showers much of the night

- MVFR or worse conditions much of the period, with IFR likely for
  about a 4-6 hour period depending upon the site

Discussion:

A slow moving frontal boundary is sagging into the area, with
showers along and behind it. In addition, deteriorating conditions
are expected with widespread MVFR or worse conditions dominating
much of the period, and a 4-6 hour period of IFR ceilings likely
with different time frames depending upon the site. Most sites
should return to VFR by late this afternoon, though BMG may linger
into the evening depending upon the progress of the front.

Winds will quickly shift westerly and then northerly as the front
moves through, and a few gusts to around 18KT are likely during the
afternoon hours out of the north.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AGM
AVIATION...Nield
DISCUSSION...KF