847
FXUS63 KIND 300423
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1223 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry and quiet weather for the weekend into early next week

- Next chance for rain arrives Tuesday and continues into Thursday
  with another shot of cooler air behind a front

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 925 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Little to no changes made to the short term forecast with this
evening`s update. Benign weather persists through Labor Day weekend
for all of Central Indiana as Canadian high pressure keeps
conditions dry and temperatures below normal.

Latest satellite imagery shows high clouds moving in from the
northwest associated with a small wave within the northwest flow
pattern aloft. ACARs soundings show a very dry airmass in place with
the only saturated layer at 250mb where the high clouds are located.
Radar does show a small area of convection moving southeast into the
Quad Cities, but the environment locally will not support
maintenance of these storms into Central Indiana as it is way too
dry and stable. Only impacts overnight will be increased clouds at
time. There is also a very slight chance of fog across North Central
Indiana tonight, but these high clouds moving in may prevent
temperatures from plummeting as much as guidance suggests, keeping
dew point depressions larger and limited the chances for fog. Not
very concerned with this threat, but it is worth mentioning.

Expect a beautiful start to the holiday weekend tomorrow with partly
to mostly sunny skies, highs in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees, and
very low humidity. Similar conditions will persist into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This evening through Saturday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Surface high pressure will be in control throughout the short term,
leading to generally quiet and dry weather.

However, a weak upper wave sliding through the broader scale
cyclonic flow aloft overnight will likely lead to a bit of an
increase in mid and high cloud, which may prevent ideal radiational
cooling conditions - though cooling conditions will still be pretty
good with fairly low dewpoints, dry ground, and dry
northerly/northeasterly flow. Will go a bit below guidance in the
upper 40s to mid 50s tonight.

Some patchy fog cannot be ruled out near daybreak Saturday,
primarily in areas where skies remain a bit clearer, or those that
are sheltered or climatologically favorable, such as stream valleys,
but confidence is far too low for a mention in the grids, especially
given that dense fog is not particularly likely.

Pleasant weather will continue Saturday, with highs rising into the
mid 70s to around 80 across the area with continued low humidity and
plentiful sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday night through Friday)...
Issued at 256 PM EDT Fri Aug 29 2025

Saturday night through Monday...

High pressure at the surface will keep the weather quiet across
central Indiana through the Labor Day weekend. Temperatures will
moderate a bit, but highs will be near to a little below normal. Dry
air and low cloud cover will allow temperatures to fall into the 50s
for lows.

Tuesday through Thursday...

An inverted surface trough will drift into the area for Tuesday into
early Wednesday, bringing a return of chances for rain. The trough
will bring some moisture with it, but forcing and moisture aren`t
impressive. Will keep PoPs in the chance category with the inverted
trough.

Later Wednesday into Thursday, a stronger upper trough will move
southeast from Canada, with an accompanying surface cold front with a
good shot of cool Canadian air behind it. There remain some
questions on timing of the system, which will affect the timing of
the highest PoPs. Right now it looks like later during the day
Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Temperatures will go from near normal on Tuesday to well below
normal for Thursday, with highs on Thursday only in the 60s expected.

Friday...

High pressure should nudge into the area on Friday, bringing a
return to dry weather. Temperatures in the 40s Friday morning should
return to around 70 in the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1223 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025

Impacts:

- Patchy fog possible late tonight; otherwise VFR.

Discussion:

Strong surface high pressure over the Great Lakes will continue to
provide a cool and dry easterly flow of air to Central Indiana during
this TAF period. Northwest flow aloft was allowing a few mid and
high clouds to pass across the TAF sites, although all of these
clouds will be at VFR levels.

This pattern is expected to persist through the TAF period, leading
to just continued passing high clouds and continued light
northeasterly surface flow. Forecast soundings are on board with
this idea showing dry lower levels and the mid and upper levels a
bit more saturated from time to time.

Only caveat is early this morning, patchy fog will be possible at
LAF, HUF and BMG. Confidence is too low to be worth a mention at the
moment.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CM
SHORT TERM...Nield
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Puma