648
FXUS63 KIND 221533
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1033 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Sunshine returns this weekend with mild temperatures

- Rain expected Monday night through early Wednesday

- Much colder air for Thanksgiving into next weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 1033 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Minimal changes were needed for the forecast as it is in pretty
great shape. Did update sky cover as the overnight clouds moved out
a little quicker than previously thought. Despite that,
temperatures are still warming at an expected rate thus far and
highs this afternoon in the 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and Tonight)...
Issued at 221 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Drier air and subsidence to the north is beginning to make its
presence felt early this morning as rain has steadily diminished on
coverage across the region along with a decrease in lower
visibilities and ceilings. Temperatures at 06Z were in the 40s.

After four days with thick cloud cover across the region...the sun
is set to make a reappearance finally today as a high pressure
builds into the area in the wake of system that brought the rain and
dismal conditions Friday. While a weak frontal passage tonight will
bring a brief return of mid level clouds...today begins a dry and
mild stretch for central Indiana set to extend into Monday.

Light showers are lingering across northern portions of the forecast
area but as deeper moisture is pinched off to the south...coverage
of the rain is diminishing rapidly. Expect any light rain or drizzle
to fully depart over the next few hours as an upper level wave
shifts east. While ceilings are lifting in response to the drier air
advecting into the region from the north clouds will remain in
abundance for the next several hours. Clearing will arrive over the
northern Wabash Valley near daybreak then expand southeast across
the forecast area through midday. Mid level clouds may linger into
the early afternoon across southern counties but the trend will be
for increasing sunshine as the day progresses.

Broad subsidence associated with the high pressure ridge will
modulate conditions into this evening. The aforementioned weak
frontal boundary will pivot across the region from late evening into
the overnight but associated moisture will be significantly limited.
A few hours with a mid level deck and a windshift will be the
primary features signaling the frontal passage. A reinforcing surge
of dry air and subsidence will follow by Sunday morning with mostly
clear skies returning.

Temps...low level thermals are supportive of highs in the low to mid
50s...once again a few degrees below the model blend. Lows tonight
will fall into the mid and upper 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Issued at 221 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Seasonably mild and dry weather is expected over the weekend into
early Monday under the influence of surface high pressure and modest
ridging aloft.

The next rainmaker for the area is the closed low currently centered
off Baja California, which will gradually shift northeastward and
may phase with a northern stream upper level disturbance as both
promote lee cyclogenesis over the central Plains, with the resultant
surface low moving quickly into the Great Lakes early to mid next
week. This system will bring another round of rain to the area,
particularly Monday night into Tuesday.

Depending upon the intensity of the upper low/trough, there will be
some low potential for lingering rain as late as Tuesday night into
early Wednesday, but these chances are far more uncertain at this
point.

What is more certain is that a fairly substantial cooldown is likely
for Thanksgiving and beyond, though the exact magnitude and
persistence of the colder conditions remains to be seen.
Nevertheless, temperatures will be substantially colder for the
holiday weekend, with wind chills in the teens likely overnights.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 541 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Impacts:

- IFR ceilings for a few hours this morning mainly at KBMG
otherwise VFR conditions developing

Discussion:

Ceilings are improving as drier air advects into the region from the
north. Skies have largely cleared at KLAF early this morning and
expect the clearing to arrive at the other terminals over the next
few hours. Clouds will linger longest at KBMG but even there...VFR
conditions are expected by mid morning. The approach and passage of
a weak front this evening will spread a mid level deck across the
terminals.

Northerly winds this morning will become light and variable as the
day progresses before shifting back to southwest ahead of the front
this evening. Winds will veer to westerly once the front passes
predawn Sunday.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KF
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM...Nield
AVIATION...Ryan