607
FXUS63 KIND 221651
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1251 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated convection possible again late today

- Cooler and less humid weather expected Sunday through Tuesday with
  highs mainly in the 70s to low 80s.

- Areas of late night/early morning fog will occur Saturday and
  Sunday nights.

- Dry weather expected Monday and Tuesday with increasing chances
  for rain and storms mid-late next week.

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 907 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Surface analysis early this morning shows broad low pressure in
place over MI. A weak trough within this flow stretched across
Central Indiana, and westerly flow was developing in the wake of the
trough within the Wabash valley. Isolated showers ahead of the
trough over eastern Central Indian continued to weaken and depart to
the east. Aloft, strong ridging was in place over the Rockies,
resulting in lee side subsidence spilling across the northern plains
and into the Ohio Valley on NW flow. Dew points across Central
Indiana were mainly in the mid 60s and skies were clear in the wake
of the trough as subsidence was seen building across western Indiana.

This afternoon, subsidence, as found across Illinois and western
Indiana, will continue to build across our area. Forecast soundings
show strong drying within the mid and upper levels. However as
convective temps in the upper 70s are reached, some SCT CU will be
possible. Weak capping does appear present near 850mb with an
inversion. HRRR hints an isolated TSRA could be possible should the
cap be breached. Confidence is low for this. Thus expect most
locations will remain mostly sunny and cooler today, with highs in
the upper 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Friday)...
Issued at 302 AM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Today through Sunday...

Expect multiple embedded waves within upper troughing to move
through the region this weekend while northwest flow persists.
Current KIND radar imagery depicts scatters showers and a few storms
pushing into central Indiana early this morning. This convection is
associated with an MCS which has been gradually weakening through
the overnight as it is outpacing the more unstable environment back
across IL. Additional showers and a few storms are possible through
the morning with the disturbance pushing through, but weak forcing
will limit coverage.

Look for winds to turn northwesterly by mid-morning once a cold
front passes. Drier air filtering in should promote mostly dry
conditions later today into tonight. However, a subtle backdoor
front and marginal low-level moisture could support a few showers or
a stray storm, mainly across far northwestern counties. Light winds
combined with mostly clear skies Saturday night supports the
potential for patchy fog. Any fog that develops will quickly mix out
Sunday morning. Another subtle impulse could promote a few light
showers over far NE counties Sunday afternoon. Otherwise, look for
pleasant weather with cooler weather from persistent northwest flow.
Highs on Saturday are expected to range from the upper 70s to low
80s whiles highs on Sunday generally range from the mid 70s to low
80s.

Sunday night through Tuesday...

Broad area of surface high pressure will push SE into the Ohio
Valley through the period, providing for much drier conditions, with
dewpts falling into the 50s. As a result most areas will see low
temperatures in the 50s Sunday night. Light winds and mostly clear
skies will lead to another night with areas of fog Sunday night. A
weak system in the NW flow aloft is expected to move across the
MO/mid-MS valleys Monday into Tuesday. At present the only expected
effect from this system will be increasing mid-high clouds. This
should limit fog chances Monday night and keep high temperatures in
the 70s most areas Monday and Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...

Another upper wave/surface cold front will move through during the
period. Confidence in timing is very low considering the system is
currently off the west coast, so for now will only have some low
PoPs. Seasonable temperatures are expected with increasing humidity
with increasing SW flow in the low levels.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1251 PM EDT Sat Aug 22 2026

Impacts:

- A stray shower or storm cannot be ruled out through 23Z

- Low chance for brief fog at outlying sites overnight.

Discussion:

VFR conditions are expected the Taf Period as high pressure over the
northern high plains builds across Central Indiana through the Taf
period. ACARS soundings show a limited CAP in place and CU is
developing. With plenty of mid level drying building across the
area, storm development is not expected, but a stray shower/storm
cannot be ruled out. Confidence remains too low for a mention.

Fog is possible at the outlying sites late tonight, due to clear
skies and low dew point depressions.

After any morning fog, VFR will continue as we remain under the
influence of high pressure.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...Puma
AVIATION...Puma
DISCUSSION...Crosbie/Melo