653
FXUS63 KIND 081106
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
606 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain chances are expected Tuesday night through Wednesday,
  transitioning to snow showers at times Wednesday evening through
  Friday

- Breezy or windy conditions expected Tuesday and Wednesday

- Arctic outbreak expected this weekend with low temperatures in the
  single digits and potentially dangerous sub-zero wind chills

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

The residual boundary following the shortwave passage will continue
to push south this morning. Along it, low stratus with isolated
flurries is possible. This boundary will interact with an
approaching low level wave from the south over the next few hours.
This may allow for some weak deformation and greater forcing over
southern Indiana isolated bands of snow forming. The greatest threat
for this will be closer to the IN/KY border, but there is a low
chance this is able to clip far southern portions of central
Indiana. If any accumulating snow does occur it will likely end by
5AM, with all forcing south of the region by dawn.

The rest of the short term is expected to have quiet weather as a
surface high settles over the region along with a colder airmass.
Single digit wind chills are expected near or north of I-70 this
morning. The arrival of the cooler air mass along with lingering
cloud cover behind the wave will likely hamper diurnal temperature
gains today with highs generally in the mid 20s to low 30s despite
increasing sunshine in the afternoon.

Guidance depicts a weak system passing to the north of the area
tonight into Tuesday promoting greater cloud cover. Precipitation is
not expected due to forcing remaining well to the north and limited
moisture return. Increasing warm air advection overnight will start
slightly warmer temperature trend with lows likely only falling into
mid teens to low 20s. As the wave nears from the north, an
increasing pressure gradient will lead to strengthening winds with
occasional gusts possible at times over far NW portions of the area
near daybreak Tuesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
Issued at 303 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

The long term period features a brief warm up above freezing midweek
before another arctic blast engulfs the region by the end of the
week and into the weekend. Numerous weak weather systems pass
through the Great Lakes this week, bringing periodic chances for
light precipitation.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

Quiet weather conditions are expected at the beginning of the period
as a dry airmass remains over the region. Guidance depicts a weak
system passing to the north of the area early Tuesday promoting
greater cloud cover. Precipitation is not expected due to forcing
remaining well to the north and limited moisture return. Another
system is expected to quickly move in Tuesday night into Wednesday.
Deeper moisture return and stronger forcing supports increasing
chances for precipitation. It does appear the strongest forcing
should be to the north again though resulting in light QPF amounts.

Predominately rain is expected with continued warm air advection
keeping temperatures above freezing. Light snow may briefly mix in
Wednesday as colder air filters in behind the cold front. An early
FROPA will likely lead to temperatures cooling through the day. Look
for a strong pressure gradient to promote breezy or windy conditions
Tuesday and especially Wednesday. Strengthening southwesterly flow
will also help to warm temperatures into the upper 30s to
possibly mid 40s both days.

Thursday through Sunday...

Expect temperatures to trend colder late this week, especially
Friday into the weekend with a deep trough and arctic high advecting
a much colder airmass into the region. Guidance depicts a shortwave
moving through Thursday bringing the potential for light snow.
Limited moisture return and modest forcing at best limits confidence
in snow chances though. Will keep POPs at 30 percent or lower. Light
snow showers are also possible Friday as a deeper trough moves in
from Canada. The one caveat is overall moisture remains very
limited. Any light snow could potentially result in minor
accumulations though due to cold ground temperatures.

There is high confidence for very cold arctic air to move into the
area late this week and into the weekend with the aforementioned deep
trough. An arctic high settling in over the weekend will also help
to advect much colder air towards central Indiana. Widespread single
digit temperatures are likely with potentially dangerous sub-zero
wind chills Friday night into Saturday morning and Saturday night
into Sunday morning. Look for highs generally in the teens Saturday.
Northern portions of the area may not see wind chills higher than
the single digits for multiple days.

Will have to watch if there is any snow accumulation before the
arctic outbreak as this may result in temperatures much colder than
what guidance currently depicts. Any additional snow pack may lead
to sub zero lows, especially for North Central Indiana Saturday and
Sunday nights.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 551 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

Impacts:

- Gusty winds near 20 kts and MVFR CIGs at KBMG through 14Z

- Gusty winds at all sites after 12Z Tuesday


Discussion:

MVFR conditions still exist at KBMG, but ceilings have improved
across most of the region, and this should lead to errosion of the
2500ft cloud layer this morning. VFR conditions are then expected
after the lower deck errodes. There is some potential for these
MVFR ceilings to maintain longer than currently expected at KBMG.

Winds have been elevated overnight, with occaisonal gusts, but
this should subside today with high pressure building. Still cant
rule out isolated wind gusts through 14-15Z, but primarily should
be just sustained out of the NE at 8-12kt. Winds will shift
towards the east late this mornign through the afternoon.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Updike
LONG TERM...Melo/CM
AVIATION...Updike