314
FXUS63 KIND 040659
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
259 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Drying out this morning, highs near 70 by this afternoon

- Low threat for additional rain late Friday into Saturday

- Dry and Cooler weather from Saturday Night through the middle of
next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Today and tonight)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Satellite and radar imagery early this morning shows a line of
showers and storms associated with a passing cold front along the
OH/IN border. Despite little instability overnight, dry lower levels
and steep low level lapse rates combined with 35-45 kts of effective
bulk shear resulted in storms capable of producing 50-60 mph winds
along the I-70 corridor. Early observations show that about a
quarter to three quarters of an inch has fallen from these storms.
Satellite imagery shows another wave on the tail end of the front in
Souther Illinois as of 230am. This next wave may bring additional
showers and an isolated lightning strike to the far southern
counties in South Central Indiana in the 4am - 8am timeframe, while
the northern half of Central Indiana remains on the drier side
through the morning hours. Additional severe weather is not expected
for South Central Indiana. Low and mid level clouds should stick
around through the early morning hours before the clearing line in
Illinois pushes eastward through the state during the late morning
hours.

The rest of the day will feature a drying trend behind the cold
front as subsidence and dry air under the incoming area of high
pressure work to clear out the remaining clouds. The pressure
gradient becomes fairly weak today as high pressure slides eastward,
so expect light winds out of the southwest this afternoon. High
temperatures will be noticeable cooler than the past few days. A
cooler airmass filtering into the region results in highs ranging
from the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon, despite ample
sunshine.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Issued at 259 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

On Friday, models show the upper pattern consisting of a strong and
deep area of low pressure over Ontario, providing cyclonic flow
across the region including the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley.
Forecast soundings show higher RH values within the mid and upper
levels while dry air and subsidence is found within the lower
levels. All this occurs as surface ridging is suggested to build
across Indiana as the mornings cold front departs. Thus a partly to
mostly cloudy day will be expected on Friday.

A quick moving short wave spoke pushing around the low is expected
to push across Indiana on late Friday Night and Saturday morning.
This will be the only chance for precipitation during from Friday
through next Thursday. Confidence for rain with this forcing remains
very low as forecast soundings fail to show deep saturation and
mainly consist of saturation well aloft. Plentiful lower level dry
air appears in place, but saturation and lift remain in place aloft.
Thus will continue to keep low pops in place on Friday night into
Saturday.

On Sunday through Thursday the upper pattern will continue to
dictate our weather. Strong ridging in place over the Rockies along
with a troughing in place over eastern North America will be the
persistent and highly amplified pattern. This will place Indiana
within an area favorable for strong subsidence. During this time
within the lower levels, a very large and strong area of Canadian
high pressure is shown to settle across the midwest and persist
through at least Thursday as it shifts east and retrogrades over the
Great Lakes. Forecast soundings through all of this time continue to
show a very dry column. Thus mostly sunny days and mostly clear
nights will be expected along with below  normal temperatures due to
dry, mainly easterly lower level flow.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 138 AM EDT Thu Sep 4 2025

Impacts:

- Scattered showers persist through the overnight hours
- MVFR cigs developing overnight, lifting after sunrise
- Wind shift to NW, then becoming SW this afternoon

Discussion:

Satellite and radar imagery shows a strong line of showers and
storms pushing into Eastern Indiana early this morning. Storms have
passed all TAF sites in Central Indiana as of 06z, but scattered
showers remain in the wake of the main line, mainly for KIND and
KBMG. Not expecting additional thunder overnight, but an isolated
lightning strike could be possible toward KBMG as additional showers
develop over the next few hours in South Central Indiana. Keeping
VCSH for KBMG and KIND and will update the TAF accordingly based on
upstream trends. Satellite imagery shows widespread clouds behind
the front while observations indicate that cigs are largely VFR. As
the night progresses, periods of MVFR cigs may develop through
around sunrise. Confidence is low in how long MVFR cigs may persist
overnight, but current thinking is that cigs may be bounce up and
down over the next several hours. VFR cigs expected after sunrise and
through the afternoon hours.

Winds have shifted to the NW around 3-6 kts at all sites behind the
front. An incoming shortwave from the northwest will work to shift
winds to the SW again this afternoon around 5-10 kts. Winds diminish
briefly after sunset and may go calm at times before increasing
again after 06z to 5-10 kts out of the south ahead of an approaching
surface front.


&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CM
LONG TERM...Puma
AVIATION...CM