265
FXUS63 KIND 211031
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
631 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers and with some storms early this
  morning, with showers diminishing during the day

- Locally heavy rain is possible early this morning

- Much cooler temperatures for the first half of the week, gradually
  warming back to near normal levels by next weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 258 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Early This Morning...

The surface front has moved south of central Indiana, but a couple
of upper impulses along with a surface wave riding along the front
are bringing enough forcing for numerous showers and some
thunderstorms to move into the area.

This forcing will continue through the predawn hours, so have gone
with higher PoPs over much of the area. For much of the area, CAPE
is elevated with an inversion closer to the surface. Will have to
watch the far south where better instability remains closer to the
surface, but odds for any severe weather remain low. Heavy rain and
localized flooding will be the threats as some training of cells may
occur.

Today and Tonight...

At 12Z, rain from one of the upper impulses will likely still be
ongoing for parts of the area. Will go likely PoPs for portions of
the east and southeast early in the period. Some of the latest
hourly guidance is showing another upper impulse generating more
numerous showers moving west to east during the morning. Not
confident enough yet to up PoPs elsewhere at this time, but will
keep an eye on how things develop.

Otherwise, chances for rain will diminish during the day as overall
forcing exits. Will have most areas dry by 21Z.

Moisture will be trapped below an inversion so will keep skies
mostly cloudy. With the clouds and cooler air behind the front,
highs will only reach the middle 60s far northeast to near 80 far
southwest.

Clouds will continue to hang around tonight. Lows will be in the 50s.

Tuesday and Wednesday...

A weakening upper low will approach the area on Tuesday. Forcing
will be weak, so for now have not gone with any mentionable PoPs.
However, wouldn`t be surprised to see some isolated showers develop
during the afternoon.

The upper low will be east of the area on Wednesday. Most forcing
will be east of the area, but an isolated shower is possible in the
extreme east during the afternoon.

Lingering moisture will keep skies mostly cloudy on Tuesday, with
western areas seeing some partial clearing on Wednesday. Highs will
generally be in the upper 60s to middle 70s.

Thursday and beyond...

Surface high pressure will keep the weather quiet during this
period. Temperatures will remain below normal into the first part of
the weekend, then readings may return to above normal (highs around
80) by next Monday.

&&

.AVIATION (12Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 630 AM EDT Mon Sep 21 2026

Impacts:

- Showers diminishing this morning
- Predominant MVFR ceilings expected through the period. IFR at times
  before 15Z
- Gusts near 20kt possible, mainly at KLAF

Discussion:

The main upper impulse that brought widespread rain and some thunder
will be exiting the area early in the period. This will allow rain
to diminish from west to east. However, can`t rule out additional
scattered showers into the afternoon.

Ceilings will be predominantly MVFR through the period. MVFR
visibility is possible in the rain, and ceilings will bounce into
IFR at times with the rain.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...50
DISCUSSION...50