882
FXUS63 KIND 021648
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1148 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Low clouds and patchy drizzle expected at times through today

- Warmer than normal temperatures continue through mid week

- Rain chances return Tuesday night with a few rumbles of thunder
  possible

- Cooler but still near seasonal normals late week into the weekend

&&

.FORECAST UPDATE...
Issued at 917 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

No major changes needed to the ongoing forecast with conditions
generally evolving as expected. ACARs soundings near IND continue to
show near surface saturation with drizzle reported across much of
the forecast area. This saturation is expected to persist through
the early afternoon with dew point depressions gradually increasing
after 20Z. This lines up well with the forecast which had drizzle
tapering off from west to east after 20Z.

With the thick stratus and drizzle, temperature rises have been a
bit slower than initially expected, but with the gradual lifting of
cloud bases and strengthening southerly flow, highs in the low to
mid 60s still seem reasonable at this time.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Sunday)...
Issued at 302 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Cooler but still near to above normal temperatures are expected this
week along with an active stretch through mid week.

A couple of weak upper level waves moving through the area today
will continue to promote widespread low cloud cover and occasional
patchy drizzle owing to weak forcing and shallow low level moisture
remaining in place across the area. This will limit diurnal
temperature range with lows this morning likely no cooler than the
low to mid 50s, and highs this afternoon eking out a  modest
recovery into the low to mid 60s.

Some breaks in the cloud cover are expected later tonight into
Tuesday, which, along with good low level mixing and strong warm
advection ahead of a potent approaching mid week system will push
temperatures to their warmest of the forecast period on Tuesday,
with highs likely well back into the 70s. This reprieve will be
brief, however, with a cold front poised to push steadily through
the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday, producing widespread
showers and perhaps a few embedded rumbles of thunder, with
lingering precip likely to taper off late Wednesday. Forecast
profiles continue to depict very strong deep layer shear but
functionally zero upright instability, which will largely eliminate
any sort of organized severe threat, although there is always the
concern that a stronger shower could briefly mix down some stronger
gusts to the surface as a 50-60KT low level jet traverses the area
with the boundary. Outside of showers, synoptic winds will be fairly
strong ahead of and immediately behind the boundary Tuesday into
Tuesday night, with gusts of 35-40+ MPH possible.

Conditions will turn cooler again in the wake of the front, though
will still be near seasonal normals, with highs toward the end of
the period in the upper 50s to low 60s and lows in the mid 30s to
mid 40s. A few periods will need at least slight chances for showers
as models depict the large scale upper low slowing and pivoting over
the Great Lakes and eastern CONUS late week into early next week,
and likely another upper level disturbance pinwheeling around or
being absorbed into the larger scale low, which may bring additional
showers and perhaps reinforcing shots of cool air to the area.

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1148 AM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Impacts:

- High IFR and low MVFR cigs to improve to VFR during the overnight
  hours
- Lingering MVFR to IFR vsbys due to drizzle to improve to VFR after
  20Z
- Southerly wind gusts up to 25kt after 12Z Tuesday

 Discussion:

Low level saturation persists across central Indiana leading to
continued drizzle and low cigs. These conditions will improve this
evening into the overnight hours as dew point depressions begin to
increase as a response to drier air advecting in at the low levels.
Conditions should improve to VFR around 00Z but there are some signs
that low clouds may stick around into the early overnight with some
question how extensive they will be. Marginal LLWS conditions are
likely towards daybreak as the LLJ ramps up ahead of the Tuesday
night system, but should remain brief enough to not warrant a
mention in the TAF. Southeasterly winds will become more southerly
late tonight with gusts up to 25kt after 12Z tomorrow.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...White
AVIATION...White
DISCUSSION...Nield