003
FXUS63 KIND 030543
AFDIND

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1243 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Warm and dry conditions expected for Tuesday with highs in the low
  70s

- Widespread rain arrives late Tuesday night and continues into
  Wednesday

-  A return to more seasonable, cooler temperatures is expected late
  week through the weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION (This evening through Monday)...
Issued at 242 PM EST Mon Nov 2 2026

Tonight.

The short term period will be characterized by anomalous warmth and
increasing low level moisture ahead of an approaching central US
trough. For tonight, the main forecast challenge relies on low level
saturation and stratus trends. Model soundings and HREF
probabilities indicate a persistent subsidence inversion aloft
trapping boundary layer moisture. This will result in widespread
stratus overnight. With weak forcing and lack of deep moisture,
precipitation will be mostly limited to patchy drizzle and even this
should end no later than midnight. Overnight lows will remain quite
mild, generally in the middle 50s, due to the blanket of stratus and
steady southerly surface flow.

Tuesday and Wednesday.

A deep upper level trough positioned over portions of the Great
Plains and Rockies Monday will continue to amplify and eject towards
the upper Midwest. In response, a tightening pressure gradient and
subsequent height/pressure falls will aid in sustaining 35-40 kt of
southerly flow at 850mb, transporting unseasonably warm, moist air
from the Gulf across Indiana tomorrow. Strong WAA and vertical
mixing supports near-record high temperatures in the mid to upper
70s. However, a trailing cold front approaching from the west may
provide a small amount of synoptic ascent during the daytime for the
development of a few mid-to-high level clouds that could hinder high
temperatures by a few degrees, and prevent any records from being
broken.

By Tuesday evening, the trailing cold front associated with the
trough will be approaching areas to the west bringing with it a thin
corridor of 60+ dew points along the leading edge. Strong isentropic
ascent in the warm sector, PWAT values ~1.5 in slightly exceeding
the 99th percentile for early November will support the development
of widespread rain and thunderstorms in Illinois that will traverse
into Indiana with time. Despite 50-60 kts of effective bulk shear,
near-zero convective instability will preclude any widespread severe
threat. However, a damaging wind gust or two cannot be ruled out due
to 50-55 kt winds just above the surface.

In addition, the CAMs are indicating the potential of a dry air
intrusion to occur as the cold front passes through our area. In
turn, combined with very limited instability, convection, and
consequently rain rates, should weaken as the cold front traverses
across Indiana. As a result, rainfall totals could range anywhere
from 0.3-0.6 in, with areas in southern Indiana having the best
chance for higher rainfall amounts where less of the dry air may
preclude totals. However, in the event where the dry air intrusion
may be weaker or training of convective cells occurs, rainfall
totals could be as high as 1.5 in. Any flash flood potential will be
mitigated due to the onset of dry soil conditions over the last
month.

Once the cold front traverses the region Tuesday night, Wednesday
will bring light residual shower activity in the CAA region behind
the cold front, and more seasonable air with highs reaching into the
low 60s and lows reaching into the mid 40s.

Wednesday Night Through Monday.

Broad cyclonic flow and a cold core aloft may allow for lingering
stratocumulus through Thursday, but sensible weather will remain
dry. Highs will retreat into the low 60s on Thursday. Heading into
Friday and the weekend, ensemble guidance paints a high confidence
picture of a pattern shift toward more seasonable November weather.
Surface high pressure will slowly build eastward out of the Plains
while persistent northwest flow aloft dominates. Thermal profiles
highlight 850mb temperatures falling near or slightly below 0C. This
CAA regime will keep daytime highs suppressed in the 50s Friday
through Monday, with overnight lows dipping into the 30s and 40s. A
few weak shortwaves embedded within the northwest flow may pass
through the Great Lakes over the weekend, but moisture return looks
largely cut off by the Gulf of Mexico trajectory, keeping
precipitation chances minimal. We will maintain a largely dry
forecast through Monday with near normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z TAF Issuance)...
Issued at 1242 AM EST Tue Nov 3 2026

Impacts:

- Southerly wind gusts between 20-30 kt are possible during the day
  today

- Marginal non-convective LLWS conditions are possible between 10-
  15Z today at the outlying TAF sites

- Widespread showers expected at the end of the TAF period

 Discussion:

Ceilings have lifted over the past few hours due to drier air
advecting in at the lower levels. VFR conditions are expected
through the period. However, Marginal non-convective LLWS conditions
are possible towards daybreak as the LLJ ramps up ahead of an
approaching system. This appears most likely near HUF/BMG with a low
chance near LAF. This will remain brief enough to not warrant a
mention in the TAF for LAF. Expect southerly winds through most of
the period. Wind gusts between 20-30 kt are possible during the day
today. Widespread showers are expected towards the very end of the
period as a low pressure system moves in late tonight into
Wednesday.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Melo
DISCUSSION...SM/White