440
FXUS63 KIWX 241938
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
238 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Remaining seasonably mild into Tuesday with a period of light
  rain late tonight into Tuesday morning.

- A period of showers is possible Tuesday night along a strong
  cold front. Gusty winds are expected Wednesday into Thursday
  behind the front.

- Lake effect snow showers are expected, mainly north of US 6
  Wednesday afternoon into Thursday evening. Some light
  accumulations are possible.

- Chances for additional precipitation, most likely in the form
  of snow, arrives Saturday and may linger into Sunday. It
  remains to early for specific impacts or accumulations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 238 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

A lot of moving pieces exist for the forecast period, with the
greatest impacts expected to occur during the Thanksgiving weekend
when travel is at its peak. We will do our best to summarize the
current thinking, but if you are travelling this weekend, remain
vigilant in monitoring current and forecast weather conditions.

Through Tuesday...

The well advertised active pattern will commence today as a
weakening upper level wave track from central KS to western IL by
12Z Tue. As mentioned in the morning update, a combination of a
somewhat slower arrival and delay in stronger lift is expected which
will impact precip chances into Tuesday morning. At least weak
isentropic lift will commence in SW areas between 0Z and 6Z Tue to
warrant some low chc pops. As the LLJ and aformentioned wave
approach, models suggest a larger area of light rain expanding
across the area between 9Z and 15Z before limited subsidence works
in behind the wave. It is possible that prior to the main area of
rain and potentially during the rain event itself that we end up
with more drizzle than rain, but opted to keep it simple for now and
leave light rain. The other element to monitor prior to the deeper
moisture passage is a fog potential, as was noted across much of
southern/central IL/IN this morning. Unsure on coverage and impacts
so introduced patchy fog for now 6Z to 15Z Tue.

Tuesday night into Thursday night...

The area will see a brief lull in precip chances as we await the
arrival of a stronger northern stream wave that will usher in much
colder air which lingers into the upcoming holiday weekend.
Cyclogenesis will take place Tuesday over WI as the deepening system
works east across the UP of MI into Wednesday. A cold front will
extend from the low, entering western parts of the forecast area
after 6Z Wed and quickly exiting by 12Z Wed. A narrow band of
showers is likely to accompany the front, although current pops may
be overdone with maybe a few hour period of precip chances. The much
larger focus will be on the falling temperatures and strong winds.
Strong CAA quickly commences behind the front (850 mb temps at 9Z
Wed ranging from 0 to 4C falling to -7 to -11 C by 21Z Wed). Strong
mixing of low level wind fields will result in sustained winds of at
least 10 to 20 mph with gusts over 35 mph. Some potential for even
higher gusts during the afternoon and evening hours with soundings
indicating 35 to 40 kt (40 to 45 mph) gusts in some areas. Highs
Wednesday will occur early with temperatures falling to near
freezing by later afternoon and into the 20s overnight. Limited
"warming" will take place on Thanksgiving day with highs creeping
back just above freezing and wind chills in the teens to around 20.

A west to northwest flow will setup across southern Lk MI in the
wake of the front with inversion heights climbing above 10,000 ft,
lake to 850 mb delta ts of around 20C, and negative 0-2 km lapse
rates. Lake effect clouds and snow showers should quickly commence,
favoring our lower MI counties, especially Wed afternoon into Thur
morning. That being said, this does not appear to be a major event
as DGZ will be located above the best lift and strong low level
winds around 35 kts will likely result in a more cellular setup. That
doesn`t mean there won`t be some reduced visibility potential in the
snow showers, but overall amounts should be on the lighter side.

Friday through Monday...

Some lake effect is likely to linger into Friday, possibly briefly
shifting into NW Indiana for a period until the low level ridge axis
finally passes through Friday night in response to the next area of
low pressure taking shape. While models remain in agreement on a
baroclinic zone establishing itself across the area over the
weekend, timing and ptype issues persist, leading to an uncertain
forecast for those likely travelling home from the holiday weekend.
EC/GEM brings in precipitation during the day Sat with temp profiles
cold enough for all snow through Sat night before shifting east. GFS
delays precip till at least Sunday and maybe not till Monday, which
would suggest more of a mix to possibly all rain. The current
forecast leans towards the faster solution at this time with likely
pops Sat/Sat night. As would be expected this far out, confidence in
finer details is not overly high but worth watching.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1249 PM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

An area of low pressure over the central plains this aftn will
shift east into the Ohio valley by the end of the fcst period.
Lowering cigs is expected through the forecast period with
chances for light rain/showers beginning overnight after 02z
for KSBN and 04z for KFWA. MVFR cigs during predominant periods
of light rain expected by 10Z 06z Tue will lower to IFR around
12Z. SSE winds 10 knots or less are expected through the
forecast period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Gale Watch from late Tuesday night through Thursday evening
     for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Frazier