182
FXUS63 KIWX 222326
AFDIWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
626 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Mild temperatures for this time of year through Tuesday with highs
  mainly in the 50s.

- A period of rain is expected (>80%) Monday night into Tuesday
  morning.

- Turning colder for Thanksgiving Day and Friday with highs in
  the 30s and wind chills in the teens and 20s.

- Some lake effect snow showers are possible for the holiday
  weekend, but confidence is very low on any impacts to travel.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Sfc low pressure north of Lake Superior will move E tonight with a
cold front trailing the low and passing through the area later
tonight into Sunday. Modest WAA will occur this evening prior to the
cold front, limiting overnight lows from falling too much before the
cold front passes. Overall little fanfare will occur with the front
outside of an increase in clouds either side of the front.

Some increase in upper level heights will occur to start the work
week as a deep upper low, currently over Baja California, moves east
and interacts with a northern stream trough. An area of rain will
advance NE across the area Monday night into Tuesday with the broad
southern stream low, but overall QPF not going to be overly
impressive, on the order of a quarter inch or so. The 2 weaker
features look to phase and close off by mid week with a negatively
tilted upper low center over the northern Great Lakes by 00Z Thu. At
the surface, deepening pressure will quickly deepen over the U.P of
MI after 00Z Tue then move towards James Bay by 12Z Thu. As this
occurs, a shot of colder air will filter in with 850 mb temps
dropping below 0 C by 12Z Wed and then bottoming out at -10 to -13 C
by Thanksgiving day. High temperatures will likely struggle
into the low to maybe mid 30s with a stiff west wind to bring
wind chills in the teens to maybe lower 20s for the day. Some
models try to print out some light precip with the surge of cold
air, resulting in small chances for precip in the current
forecast. Some sort of lake response is likely with Delta Ts
around 20 C, but NW flow setups are always tricky on exact
impacts given a shorter fetch. Plenty of time to sort those
details out, but some travel impacts could occur over the
holiday weekend as a result.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 625 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Plenty of dry air took over behind yesterday`s cold front and that
will provide prevailing VFR conditions through the TAF period. Have
noted the prior shift`s low level moisture signal and some of the
aviation guidance is still insisting that it develops around IN-15
and pushes east making it FWA`s problem for around an hour or so as
CAA overtakes the WAA behind the cold front. However, the depth of
this moisture is rather shallow, last night it looks like something
similar tried to happen, but only had few to sct decks, and today
dried further under sunshine. With guidance also trending drier for
that period, will keep it out. Will brief the next shift on it
though.

Sustained winds will be around 10 kts sustained tonight and Sunday,
but the inversion keeps mixing shallow restricting gusts through the
period. Trajectories start out out of the southwest and veer around
to the west northwest by the end of the TAF period.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...None.
OH...None.
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Sunday for LMZ043-046.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Fisher
AVIATION...Roller